MLB 16 Preview: NL East
Baseball season is upon us! In a few hours, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to finish giving my regular season projections with the NL East. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Atlanta Braves: Atlanta had a busy off-season without spending a lot of money. A lot of buy-low signings on players to see what they have left in the tank and possibly be moved come the trade deadline. The Braves also strengthened the minor league aspect of the team with the trades of Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller, Cameron Maybin, and Christian Bethancourt. Atlanta looks to use this season to see what some of the younger offensive players can do (Jace Peterson and Adonis Garcia) while waiting for pitching to develop in the minor league system.
Miami Marlins: A team still looking for its first winning season since changing the name (from the Florida Marlins) and currently looking at a six year streak of having a losing record, the Marlins have been up and down in people’s rankings for years, always letting down playoff predictions yet staying away from being one of the worst teams overall. This off-season, Miami looked to add to the pitching staff and so Wei-Yin Chen was brought in to be the number two man behind Jose Fernandez. Miami has a lot of young talent and a very strong outfield, but all the players staying healthy has been an issue in Miami and the pitching is a bit of a coin-flip right now. Still, Miami can surprise if all the pieces fit and the Marlins are hoping that new manager Don Mattingly can be the one make the puzzle whole.
New York Mets: A brand new up-the-middle trio is in New York with the signing of Asdrubal Cabrera, the trade for Neil Walker, and the return of Yoenis Cespedes. I also love the pitching rotation, as most people do, but there are three things that worry me about the Mets. One: the corners – Lucas Duda at first hits a ton of HRs and that is about it and third has David Wright, whose health looks to be just as big of a problem as it was last year. Also, I am not a big believer in Curtis Granderson but I do like Michael Conforto to improve in his second MLB season. Second: the depth – mainly for the infield as Cabrera, Walker, and Wright all have a history of injury and/or not being overly productive, especially on defense. With the release of Ruben Tejada, the team lost a lot of infield depth and if the injuries or struggles come, that could be a huge hit to the NYM. Third: the bullpen – I still think it is a very weak aspect of the Mets team, as it was exposed to be during the World Series.
Philadelphia Phillies: I usually do not think that teams make moves in the off-season while still expecting to lose, but what the Phillies did this off-season makes me think that this team did just that. The rotation was filled with a handful of one-year cast offs like Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton while the prospects develop in the minors, a lot of them coming from the Astros in the Ken Giles trade, the bullpen was more-or-less ignored, and the Phillies could not find someone to take the albatross that Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz have become, off of their hands. That being said, the team does have a lot of promising youth, lead by third basemen Maikel Franco, and an interesting outfield that could become a very strong one in the near future. It is a young team that will not contend this year as Philadelphia has committed to the full rebuild.
Washington Nationals: A team that had very high expectations last season really fell to the ground in the second half, so the Nationals went out to upgrade the team by bringing in Ben Revere and Daniel Murphy to take starting roles. The rotation is pretty much the same, sans Doug Fister, and the outfield is lead by Bryce Harper and has an excellent fourth outfielder in the young Michael Taylor. A big boon to this team will be rebound seasons from Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg while hoping that Danny Espinosa can continue his bounce-back that he started last season.
Predictions:
Mets: 94-68
Nationals: 87-75
Marlins: 83-79
Braves: 72-90
Phillies: 65-97
Okay, I know I was a little harsh on the Mets earlier, but that is one heck of a rotation and that is what gives me the most confidence about this team. Plus, the one years buys on Walker and Cespedes (who will, more than likely, exercise his opt-out) will help this team offensively. The Nationals do not strike much fear into me; maybe they should, but right now, they just look like a team that will make a push for the wild card and come out just short. The Marlins will finally get the winning season in Miami and make things a little interesting, but the health needs to be there along with the consistency before I can buy into them and label them as a playoff team (like I did last year).
The Braves and Phillies both look to be better than they were last season, but both teams are still in the midst of a rebuild and still need a little bit of time. I like where the Braves stand now more-so than the Phillies, mainly because Philadelphia has a lot of money tied up in Ruiz and Howard and that money is being wasted, but both teams will be interesting to watch come the trade deadline.
A Tale of Three Cities: A Look at the New York Mets’ Playoff Chances
Three teams have risen above my expectations and have put themselves in the midst of a playoff hunt for the second half of the MLB season. The Astros, the Twins, and the Mets are all winning games that I didn’t think that they would. I did believe during the pre-season that the Astros and the Mets were trending upwards right now with their minor league talent and the strong teams that are being built. The Twins, however, I had less hope for. I mentioned in my “Mid-Season Review” piece that, of all those teams, the Twins would be the only one to make the playoffs. Here is a deeper look into the teams and why I believe the team will go where it does. Next up, the New York Mets.
The Mets have a similar issue as the Astros, a weak offense. However, unlike the Astros, the offense is far more anemic across the board. 30th in the majors in hits (686) and AVG (.233), 29th in total bases (1067), 28th in runs (310), 27th in RBIs (297) and Extra Base Hits (XBH) (222) , 26th in OBP (.298), 20th in walks (237), 19th in HRs (75) and 12th in strikeouts (686). Bottom half of the league in every category sans strikeouts and bottom five in all but Ks, walks and HRs. That is a dreadful offensive output from the first half of the season. The player who leads the team in AVG is Juan Lagares at .256. The only other player with regular at-bats (min. 100) who has a better AVG than him is Daniel Murphy at .277. And there is only one other player, Wilmer Flores, with an AVG above .250 (he sits at .252). There are three players with a WAR at or above 1 which is the same number of players who have an RBI total above 30. 38 RBIs is the team lead.
Now, the Mets do have some grand pitching. Third best team ERA in the majors and a 1.17 WHIP which is good for third best. The Mets starting rotation is full of youth and a lot of promise. Steven Matz is on the DL and will provide a shot in the arm for the pitching rotation and give the Mets the flexibility to use Colon and/or Niese in a trade to upgrade the anemic offense. Niese has a problem with a high WHIP (1.38), however, and Colon hasn’t excelled in limiting damage as he leads the team in earned runs allowed with 52, leading to a 4.46 ERA which would be his highest ERA since 2007 with the Angels (6.34). Basically, those two may not have the most trade value, especially to rebuilding clubs and Colon being a free agent after this season. Could be used as part of a three team deal with another contender looking for a pitching upgrade (Cubs, Tigers, Royals come to mind) with other moving pieces. The bullpen is looking good but it’s lacking a big power arm. Aside from Famailia, the closer, no other relief pitcher is striking out batters at a strong rate (Famailia has struck out 43 batters in 43.1 innings) and that could be an issue. No big strikeout pitcher can hurt in a high leverage situation. In fact, the Mets bullpen is 28th in strike outs with 211. Only other contending team with a lower bullpen K number is the Twins. And yes, I realize that bullpens can be quite successful without a lot of strikeouts, as the Mets one is currently, but it’s a good way to go into my next segment.
The Mets could use another bullpen piece and a lot of offense. Lagares and, possibly, Lucas Duda are the only two batters I wouldn’t replace on the Mets team right now. I can’t rely on d’Arnaud, Murphy or Wright to help the team’s offensive woes because they have been injured off and on all season. Also, Wright has been on the decline since last season when his injury woes began and there is no evident return date for him this season and d’Arnaud didn’t inspire me as a game changer in his time last season. Now, he’s still young and has can change that easily, I just don’t see it happening this season, especially since there is no real return date for him yet, either. Murphy is hitting similar to that of his career line, but I feel like he’d have more value to the Mets as a trade-able piece than as a member of the lineup come August, given that the offense around him is dreadful and that he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season.
You can argue that the Mets fortunes are changing after a very successful nine game stretch against the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks. But the Mets really struggled when facing off against the better pitching of the teams. The Mets were stymied by Kershaw (but they won that game in the 9th) and Greinke, Cain and Heston (another game they won in the 9th) and took care of business when facing against the lower tier pitchers like Bolsinger of the Dodgers, Peavy of the Giants (at least the way his season has gone so far) and the three Diamondback starters. Good teams beat bad teams and bad starters. But the Mets will continue to struggle against more complete teams as they already have this season (0-7 against the Cubs, 0-3 against the Pirates, 2-2 against the Cardinals and 3-4 against the Nationals, and a 7 game losing streak against the Blue Jays, Braves, and Brewers.)
The Mets open the second half at the Cardinals and Nationals then at home vs. the Dodgers. They’re already two games back of the Nationals and one game behind the Cubs for the Wild Card. A rough start out of the gate could really bury the Mets playoff chances but a strong start doesn’t really guarantee them anything, either. I liken this team to the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates; a team that was very hot in the start of the season but couldn’t quite finish the push when it came to the stretch. It’s a young and un-tested rotation that isn’t getting Wheeler back and already has a pitcher on it in Harvey who is recovering from his own TJ surgery, might be on an innings limit, and has been slightly sporadic this season.
The pitching is there for the Mets but the offense isn’t and it isn’t a player or two away from being fixed. The Mets should capitalize on the players of value and expiring contracts and sell at the deadline. Re-load the prospect pool and take a good, long, hard look at the free agent market and the trade block this off-season. Wise deals this round, however, will need to be made. No more Granderson, Bay, Cuddyer, or Bonilla (among others) esq contracts that do nothing aside from pay a lot of money to older players who can’t give worth to the team. IE: stop paying players for their past. (Seriously, what is with the Mets and signing older players to bad contracts?) The Mets could really build this team up with an excellent off-season, one that is a turning point (akin to the 2012-2013 off-season the Pirates had and how it changed fortunes tremendously) but it shouldn’t be hampered by deals made at the deadline.
Baseball Predictions
Again, I apologize to my readers for not doing my annual MLB preview series. However, I couldn’t go without letting my predictions go down on paper for this upcoming MLB season. Starting with my playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
DS: Pirates over Nationals, Marlins over Dodgers
White Sox over Orioles, Blue Jays over Mariners
CS: Pirates over Marlins
White Sox over Blue Jays
WS: Pirates over White Sox
There is a lot of hype on the Pirates this year and I understand why, as a Pittsburgh native. Small market teams don’t have a large window of opportunity and the Pirates have been pushing the window open for years. The White Sox have turned around their franchise with some shrewd moves this offseason and have a solid roster. Both teams have the ability to be very active at the deadline should issues arise during the season and the fan base to support the team through a long run.
NL MVP: McCutchen – Yes, it’s a bit of a homer pick, but his stats haven’t declined over the past two seasons, the roster overall is better for him, and he’s well known throughout baseball.
NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto – Every year he seems to be close to getting it but either an injury or Kershaw step in the way. Cueto will still be the shining star on what could be a very poor Reds season, might even be moved to a contender come the deadline.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson – He was a candidate last season with the A’s and now calls Toronto his home. A leader on the team that pushes the Blue Jays to playoff relevance could be exactly what he needs to win the award. Akin to McCutchen when he won his.
AL CY Young: Chris Sale – He’s an ace for Chicago and is going to have a bit of a late start to the season. However, as Kershaw showed last season, a dominate season can still win the award, even if you miss the first month. The leader of this team will lead them to a World Series appearance.
ROY: I don’ bother doing this pre-season because of mid-season call ups and expectations that don’t last. Ask me again come the All-Star break.
Overall Divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
MLB 2014 Preview: NL East
The season has technically started with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Australia, but the rest of the teams are still getting ready and are trying to set their rosters for the 2014 season. Now it is time for me to break down each division. I will break it down, going worst to first in my analysis and, after doing all the divisions, I’ll do an award and postseason one. Starting off with the N.L. East…
1st: The Atlanta Braves once had a stranglehold on the NL East, winning from 1995-05. The Phillies won 07-11, Nationals in 12, and the Braves reclaimed it in 2013 and look to repeat once more. The lineup has skill top to bottom, a strong outfield with power but a lot of inconsistency, and an infield that has excellent defensive capabilities. The bullpen looks to be as strong as ever with Kimbrel at the helm. The Braves may need to upgrade at 2nd base during the season if Uggla can’t play well as he hasn’t in recent years, and possibly at starting pitching. It’s usually a very deep position for the Braves but it’s full of young pitchers and the Braves may look to add a veteran at the deadline. Record at best: 97-65 Record at worse: 86-76 Record prediction: 93-69
2nd: Nationals: A team looking to get better with youth but struggling to do so. Harper is an excellent player but hasn’t reached the MVP caliber level, yet. Strasburg is an ace, but not a full balance as he can be hit hard. The rest of the rotation is very strong, but it was so last season and it imploded almost as bad as the offense did. Span didn’t reach the level that the Nationals were hoping for, Espinosa had a full collapse last season and all but alienated himself with the management, and Rendon has a lot to prove, as the whole offense looks for a bounce back. The Nationals have a lot of homegrown talent that, so far in their careers, seem to be struggling to work together. Record at best: 94-68 Record at worst: 78-84 Record prediction: 85-75
3rd: All the Phillies managed to do over the offseason was get older. Signing Burnett and Byrd were probably two of my least favorite signings, sans one, of the offseason. Third base is a huge question mark for the Phillies as Cody Asche, the projected third baseman, has a total of 162 at bats to his name. Hamels is going to start the season on the DL giving a red flag to the rotation, and the Phillies tried to trade Papelbon over the offseason but were unable to and with or without him, the bullpen is quite bland. Not good, not bad. Finally, instead of trying to trade one of the older players on the team (sans Rollins; that was a messy situation) they’ve put Mayberry Jr. on the block. He’s not exactly young, or particularly useful, but that fits more than half of the roster. Record at best: 84-78 Record at worst: 62-100 Record prediction: 78-84
4th: This is going to surprise people, I’m sure, but here we go: The Marlins will not be the worst team in the NL East. The Marlins still have some work to do, granted, but have a lot of youth behind it. That and I think the Mets will be bad, but more on that later. The rotation is young with plenty of promise, lead by young ace Fernandez, the bullpen isn’t terrible, and the field is very young. That can bring issues, but it also leaves the door open for a lot of promise. The Marlins have a lot of talent in the minors, Stanton in the OF, and promise in Yelich, Ozuna, Lucas, Hechavarria, and Solano (when he comes off the DL). Saltalamacchia won’t bring AVG but he will bring power and Jones had a down season in 2013 and is looking to bounce back. If the train wrecks, however, it will be disastrous. Record at best: 81-81 Record at worst: 54-108 Record prediction: 75-87
5th: The Mets made my least favorite move of the offseason: Signing Granderson to a long term deal. Granderson leaves the friendly confines of New Yankee Stadium to a much more spacious ballpark in Citi Field. Second, the Mets paid for a player who has been injured and hasn’t hit over .265 since 2008 when he hit .280. His power numbers will also drop as he comes into the NL East as the parks aren’t quite so hitter-friendly. Defensively, he is a problem with a .2 DWAR being the best in the last three seasons. Anyway, the biggest issue for the Mets is the lack of talent. Wright and Granderson can’t carry the whole line up so a huge rebound is needed from Davis, d’Arnaud has to live up to his promise, and Young has to play absolutely lights out, just for the Mets to have a shot at .500. The rotation is weak, due to the loss of Harvey of Tommy John surgery (not the Mets fault) but, aside from Wheeler, the rest of the rotation of Colon, Gee, and Mejia is underwhelming. Record at best: 80-82 Record at worst: 60-102 Record prediction: 68-94
Cats In The Bleachers 
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