MLB 16 Preview: NL Central
Baseball season is upon us! Tomorrow, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to start giving my projections, moving on to the NL Central. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Chicago Cubs: My oh my does this team look scary on paper! The rotation was a need so the Cubs brought in John Lackey. The Cubs saw an opportunity to make the team stronger while hurting a divisional foe so they signed Jason Heyward. The team wanted more versatility so in came Ben Zobrist. Add on to that the youth and skill of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Jorge Soler (who is not even a starter), it starts to scare you. Now the Cubs are hoping that Lackey and John Lester repeat their 2015 and that Jake Arrieta continues to dominate the way he did at the end of 2015, but all three of them do carry some risks and Arrieta may not be quite as good as his end of 2015 (look at his playoffs sans the Wild Card game. Arm fatigue might be a factor) but even his first half was strong and the Cubs would love to have that continue. The bullpen is still a little on the weak side, as is the defense (especially in the outfield, sans Heyward), but this team has depth and prospects to augment the team should the need arise. Will some of these longer deals hurt the team in the future? Probably. But for now, it makes one grand-looking team.
Cincinnati Reds: A team committed to a rebuild did trade away Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman for some less-than-thrilling returns, but each player did have his issues, thus lowering the trade vale. Other than that, it was a very quiet off-season for the Reds with just a few minor league signings as the team looks to give the plethora of young players a chance to perform while looking to shop some other veterans such as Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. Honestly, that is about what fans can expect to see out of the Reds this year. Trades, struggles, growing pains, and the development of younger players.
Milwaukee Brewers: Another team committed to a full rebuild this off-season, the team listened on many players and traded away Jean Segura, Adam Lind, Khris Davis, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jason Rogers, just to name a few. Just like the Reds, most of the spending done by the Brewers was in minor league signings and Milwaukee does not look to be done with the trades yet. Left on the trading block is catcher Jonathan Lucroy who, with a strong and healthy start to the season, could fetch a pretty penny for this organization. And it would not surprise me to see Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar, Matt Garza, and Ryan Braun shopped around during the deadline as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates: In a very typical, Neil Huntington-esq off-season, many fans are scratching their heads and wondering what in the world could possibly be expected out of the Pirates this year. Gone are AJ Burnett, JA Happ, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Charlie Morton (and others), and in comes John Jaso, Neftali Feliz Juan Nicasio, David Freese, Ryan Vogelsong, John Niese, Jason Rodgers, and Jake Goebbert. A lot of little names that are coming off of injury, down seasons, small roles, etc… The exact type of players that the Pirates love to work with. Jaso brings a huge OBP upgrade over Alvaerz a the expensive of power, and more than likely, a defensive upgrade as well. Feliz and Nicasio looked very strong in spring, and many were depth moves for the organization should another player get injured and the Pirates need a new starter. Plus, the bullpen looks just as strong as it was this time last season, the outfield is one of the best in all of baseball, there are plenty of prospects to get excited about coming up in June/July, and I have learned in the last three seasons to just trust Huntington, Clint Hurdle, Ray Searage, and the like.
St. Louis Cardinals: I think the only team that got hurt worse by a divisional opponent than the Cardinals was the Dodgers, but it is close. With the Cubs snagging Lackey and Heyward, it really weakened the 2015 best regular season team in baseball. Trading for Tony Cruz to add some depth at catcher was a keen move as the team struggled when Yadier Molina had his injury problems that may persist into 2016 and also added depth in trading for Jedd Gyorko, trading away Jay as the team did have a glut of outfielders, and still does. Adding Mike Leake was a nice touch, but the rotation does not intimidate me as there are a lot of injury prone pitchers in it and the bullpen looks to be pretty average. Another thing about the Cardinals: if you play shortstop for them, you might have a bad day. St. Louis has already lost two starting shortstops to injury and Gyorko is not a good defender at that position. The outfield, while it has plenty of depth, is also hoping for Randal Grichuck and Stephen Piscotty to be just as productive as they were when they stepped into their emergency roles last season. If one or both falters and needs to be benched or sent to AAA, or Matt Holliday plays the same, or a lesser, amount of games he did last year (76) it could swiftly put a strain on the depth of the Cardinals.
Predictions:
Cubs: 98-64
Pirates: 92-70
Cardinals: 88-74
Reds: 70-92
Brewers: 63-99
The Cubs, again on paper, appear to be the best team in the majors. A lot can go wrong, but a lot can go right with this team. I still the think that the pitching is a little weak, but the Cubs look like a team willing to do what it must to get the right pieces. And I do love their depth. As for the Pirates, I said it before and I will say it again, I’ve learned to just trust in Huntington and let him do his thing. Will the Pirates take a step back? Probably. But the Pirates have a strong wave of mid-summer reinforcements coming up and I do think that the off-season moves are just being picked at very feverishly by the fans because they want the splashy moves, seeing as the Pirates have come so close yet been so far for the past three seasons. The Cardinals have taken enough hits to warrant them dropping about 10 wins from last season. I cannot help but feel that the Cardinals caught lightning in a bottle many times last season but it wore them down last season, leading to a swift exit against the Cubs. St. Louis is still going to challenge teams and be in the thick of the race, but this year, it looks to be a race for a wild card slot, not the divisional crown.
The Reds look to be a step ahead of the Brewers right now in that they have more major-league ready talent than Milwakee does and I do think that the Reds rotation could be a better-than-average one while Milwakee is still looking to add pitching. Both teams should be active sellers at the deadline and will look to give many young players a chance to make a case to continue to be part of the future, but the Reds are about a season ahead of the Brewers, thanks to the fact that they had a few more high-profile assets last season to trade away.
Baseball Predictions
Again, I apologize to my readers for not doing my annual MLB preview series. However, I couldn’t go without letting my predictions go down on paper for this upcoming MLB season. Starting with my playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
DS: Pirates over Nationals, Marlins over Dodgers
White Sox over Orioles, Blue Jays over Mariners
CS: Pirates over Marlins
White Sox over Blue Jays
WS: Pirates over White Sox
There is a lot of hype on the Pirates this year and I understand why, as a Pittsburgh native. Small market teams don’t have a large window of opportunity and the Pirates have been pushing the window open for years. The White Sox have turned around their franchise with some shrewd moves this offseason and have a solid roster. Both teams have the ability to be very active at the deadline should issues arise during the season and the fan base to support the team through a long run.
NL MVP: McCutchen – Yes, it’s a bit of a homer pick, but his stats haven’t declined over the past two seasons, the roster overall is better for him, and he’s well known throughout baseball.
NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto – Every year he seems to be close to getting it but either an injury or Kershaw step in the way. Cueto will still be the shining star on what could be a very poor Reds season, might even be moved to a contender come the deadline.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson – He was a candidate last season with the A’s and now calls Toronto his home. A leader on the team that pushes the Blue Jays to playoff relevance could be exactly what he needs to win the award. Akin to McCutchen when he won his.
AL CY Young: Chris Sale – He’s an ace for Chicago and is going to have a bit of a late start to the season. However, as Kershaw showed last season, a dominate season can still win the award, even if you miss the first month. The leader of this team will lead them to a World Series appearance.
ROY: I don’ bother doing this pre-season because of mid-season call ups and expectations that don’t last. Ask me again come the All-Star break.
Overall Divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
MLB 2014 Preview: N.L. Central
The season has technically started with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Australia, but the rest of the teams are still getting ready and are trying to set their rosters for the 2014 season. Now it is time for me to break down each division. I will break it down, going worst to first in my analysis and, after doing all the divisions, I’ll do an award and postseason one. Starting off with the N.L. Central…
1st: The St. Louis Cardinals lost a great player to FA in Carlos Beltran, who might be the best hitter in postseason history, but have the depth to absorb it. Trading Freese for the speedy Bourjos to leadoff, play excellent defense, and make Jay an excellent back up for all three corner spots while also freeing up a spot for Matt Carpenter to play every day at 3rd. Also, Craig moves back into the outfield, Adams plays first. The rotation is a little wobbly with Garcia starting on the DL this season as well hoping for continued success from Lynn, Wacha, and Miller, a trio of great young players, but that isn’t an issue as I expect them all to do well. The bullpen is still a weakness for the Cardinals so that’s a mid-season trade target. Finally, the Cardinals are looking to see what Peralta does coming back from PED suspension as well as what Wong does in a full season but the issues with the Cardinals are minor and they are still the best team in the majors. Record at best: 113-49 Record at worst: 87-75 Record prediction: 102-60
2nd: The Pittsburgh Pirates had a great season last year and took the Cardinals to five games in the NLDS and proceeded to make only minor signings to the roster. That being said, I think they’re just as good this season as they were last. The defense will be just as strong as it’s the same formula and the same players for the most part, the rotation looks to be just as solid as last season, even with Volquez in the fifth slot. Last season, the Pirates rotation went through a lot more flux with injuries and players not performing well (Jonathan Sanchez) and still won 94 games. The depth is there at every spot of the field, the minors have plenty of reinforcements and/or trade bait. The offense is a question mark as some players are going to have to prove something (G. Sanchez, Mercer, Tabata, Snider) and Walker needs to have a full bounce back and healthy season but, if everything goes right, this team can be in it up to the end. Record at best: 99-63 Record at worst: 85-77 Record prediction: 94-68 1st Wild Card slot
3rd: The Cincinnati Reds will take a step back in 2014 due to the loss of Choo and the injury to Chapman. The rotation is still stacked even with the loss of Arroyo, the offense is still strong, and the bullpen, which will be taxed to start, has the strength to pull through. Brandon Phillips is a question mark however as he has been on the decline for the past few seasons and Ludwick hit just 3 home runs last season and he needs a bounce back as well. Of all three teams in the NL Central that will contend deep into the season, I see the Reds as the most likely to make a large deadline move, but I don’t think the issues will be quite enough to throw them back into lower tier teams. Record at best: 95-67 Record at worst: 79-83 Record prediction: 90-72
4th: The Brewers biggest offseason move looked like last season’s move; to bring in a pitcher close to the last moment who was left on the market and wasn’t seen as an ace. The Brewers now have Gallardo (looking for a bounce back), Garza (looking for a bounce back) and Lohse (the Cardinal’s castoff who is…isn’t looking for a bounce back but for consistency). Braun is a spotlight with his return from PED suspension, Weeks and Ramirez have power but that’s about it, and Segura might start the season on the DL. The bullpen is better than last year but that’s not saying much about the team. This is a .500 team at best and isn’t a team to strike fear in anyone but they will win a handful of games this season. Record at best: 81-81 Record at worst: 70-92 Record prediction: 74-88
5th: The Chicago Cubs keep waiting for someone to rise up but the players still aren’t there yet. Castro took another step back, Rizzo hasn’t lived up to potential, Murphy has been traded to the Rangers, and the rest of the players are just placeholders until the prospects make it to the majors which basically makes this season a wash. But, aside from the offensive and defensive issues, the Cubs rotation is not good. Samardzija is the ace but his second half of the season he was a 4.72 ERA and he allowed a combined 27 homeruns in 2013. Jackson is a back-end pitcher who is being paid and forced into a top three rotation spot due to the lack of other pitchers, and Travis Wood is the potential “current ace” as the Cubs don’t really have any pitching prospects close to the majors, or any at all for that matter. The bullpen isn’t much better than the rotation is the nicest way I can put that. The Cubs are still behind the curve and the fans should brace for another rough season. Record at best: 73-89 Record at worst: 59-103 Record prediction: 65-97
Jose Tabata
Spring Training is here and the Pirates have not gone out to get a new right fielder, something that many people wanted the Pirates to do after Byrd signed with the Phillies. However, I see no issue with it. Tabata will be a fine starting right fielder for the Pirates, and here is why.
Tabata hit a .282/.342 line in 308 ABs with 87 hits, 28 extra base hits. Tabata had a career high in homeruns and triples, as well has having 33 RBIs. His K:BB ratio is a respectable 2:1, 35 runs scored, and he set a career high in WAR with 1.2.
The Pirates RF in 2013 hit .242/.299 in 150 hits with 55 XBH, 48 RBIs and had an almost identical K:BB ratio. There were six stolen bases by Pirates RF and 76 runs scored.
Tabata counted for 58 percent of the hits, 51 percent of the XBH, half of the stolen bases, only one of four times a runner was caught stealing, 69 percent of the RBIs, and 46 percent of the runs scored.
On defense, Tabata was the only player in RF with over 100 innings played to not have an error, he had the second most innings played at 341, and had 55 put outs in 55 chances.
Admittedly, the offensive numbers are slightly inflated to the averages because he spent some time in left field when Marte spent some time on the DL. That doesn’t change much, though, as it illustrates how much of an upgrade Tabata will be if he’s given full time in right. Tabata equaled approximately 50 percent of all the output of the Pirates total players in right, including Byrd.
With the Pirates, Byrd hit .318 but that was in 107 ABs and with only 34 hits. He had 12 XBH, 17 RBIs, and 14 runs scored. He also had the luxury of hitting in a much better location in the order than where Tabata usually hit (either leadoff or in the 6th spot, Byrd would often hit in the 5th) and he amounted to 1 WAR in his time with the Pirates.
When you compare the numbers, Byrd and Tabata were very similar during the 2013 season in their time with the Pirates with Tabata having a larger sample size than Byrd. Byrd had the advantage of playing for a poor Mets team where he was the only plus hitter in the lineup and always had more favorable placement in the line-up than Tabata.
The Pirates spent the offseason more worried about first base and pitching and leaving RF alone, aside from a few minor moves that look to be for depth only. Tabata and Snider look to battle out for time, with Lambo a possibility as well. Polanco most likely won’t be a factor in the Pirates plans for 2014 as he only had nine at-bats in AAA for the Pirates and the Pirates like to have their players have plenty of time in AAA (393 for Marte and 881 for McCutchen).
Tabata has a bit of a bad rap in Pittsburgh but he’s only 25, he’s had some injuries that weren’t well managed by the Pirates, and he went through a massive tragedy when his wife admitted that she wasn’t who she said she was and kidnapped children. Tabata deserves a second chance and 2014 looks to be the season that he gets it.
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Relief Pitchers
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, finishing with the relief pitchers.
The players: Jeanmar Gomez, Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Justin Wilson, Vin Mazzaro, Tony Watson, Bryan Morris, a handful of others.
Now, if I were to give a little spiel for each pitcher for the Pirates 2013 bullpen, I’d probably be here all day, and so would you as the readers. Instead, I want to praise the Pirates for making all the bullpen moves BEFORE the season and using internal players to mix-and-match instead of making over-priced trades. Players like Gomez, Wilson, and Mazzaro were all players that were not expected to be large parts of the Pirates pitching staff yet each one of them pitched over 70 innings, Wilson had a 2.08 ERA, Mazzaro had a 2.81, and Gomez, who also spot-started, had a 3.35 ERA. Watson and Melancon also pitched over 70 innings, Grilli pitched 50 (and an injury during the stretch) and Hughes, despite his up-and-down season had 32 IP and his 4.78 ERA was the worst among pitchers for the Pirates that threw at least 30 IP.
Huntington has always been able to build up a strong bullpen each year and he did the same in 2013. Trading for Gomez and Mazzaro in minor deals, being able to replace Hughes when he didn’t live up to his 2012 performance, letting Grilli take the reins as closer with a very team friendly two year contract, and being confident in Morris, Watson, and Wilson, letting them stick around in the Pirates bullpen throughout the season.
Finally, the Hanrahan trade. Now, no one could’ve known that he would blowout his elbow and be sidelined for the entire season but everyone expected him to be traded at one point or another because the Pirates weren’t going to pay over 8M for a closer. The return that Huntington got was huge. Melancon and Pimentel are still with the Pirates and both look to be locks for the 2014 bullpen. Melancon, after a disastrous 2012 season in Boston that had 45 IP, a 6.20 ERA, and an injury, came to Pittsburgh and had 71 IP, a .96 WHIP, a 1.39 ERA, walked eight batters to 70 Ks, allowed 1 HR and 11 ER overall, and was worth 2 WAR. He struggled a little bit in September but his arm may’ve been a little fatigued after the innings jump between the last two seasons. Pimentel is out of options got a chance to throw a little in the majors last season (9.1 IP 2 ER 9 Ks) but his AAA stats were excellent. 92 IP, 2.95 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP were a reason why he was called up and a reason why he will be given a chance to stick in the bullpen. DeJesus and Sands, the other players from the deal, are no longer on the Pirates but didn’t project to be long-term additions, anyway.
Overall, the Pirates bullpen was, perhaps, the biggest strength: 3rd bullpen ERA in the league (2.89), 4th in IP (545.2), 6th lowest ER (175), 3rd WHIP (1.17), and 2nd in saves (55). Without that much late-inning support, the Pirates never would’ve made the Wild Card game. With most of it looking the same as those who pitched last season (current projection: Grilli, Melancon, Wilson, Mazzaro, Watson, Morris, and Hughes, Gomez, and Pimentel left to fight for the 7th slot) I rate the Pirates RP an A.
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Starting Pitchers
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, moving on to starting pitchers.
The players: AJ Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Garrett Cole, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeanmar Gomez, Brandon Cumpton, and a few others.
The Pittsburgh Pirates had a revolving door for a bit of the season due to injuries to Burnett, Rodriguez, Morton, and Liriano but the team’s depth stepped up big to the point that the organization didn’t need to call up a second top prospect in Tallion. Cumpton (5 GS, 30.2 IP, 7 ER) and Cole (19 GS, 117.1 IP, 42 ER (3.22 ERA)) both took huge steps in their development to help the Pittsburgh Pirates, with Cole really dominating in September.
With Cole expected to be in the starting rotation and having Cumpton, Tallion, and Kingham (possibly McPherson if he heals well form his injury) in the immediate wings with the Pirates also having other spot-starters, like Gomez who had 8 starts last season and went 3-0 overall during the season with 3.35 ERA, the depth looks just as impressive.
Locke was dreadful after the month of July (7.94 ERA in Aug 6.00 ERA in Sept), but he pitched more to his peripherals when you look at his overall numbers. Overall, 30 starts, 10 wins and seven losses, 166.1 IP, 65 ER, 84 walks, a 3.52 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP is more akin to what he will be in his career, a number four or five pitcher, not the ace he was pitching like at the start of the season. The real question is if he will be able be a decent pitcher and pitch well through his career or will he be like James McDonald and flame out completely after his second half collapse.
Rodriguez was injured after just 12 starts to the season but one that wasn’t too terrible to look at. Overall, he was 6-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 IP and 46 Ks to 12 walks. Only issue is that he allowed 10 HRs in only 12 starts. However, if you give him a mulligan and remove his outlier performance, his worst one of the season, on April 29th at Milwaukee where he let up 7 ER in 3.2 IP, his numbers look a little better. He allowed 3 HRs in that game but he needs to limit those. However, if he can pitch in 2014 along the lines that he has done while with the Pirates (in 24 GS, 137.2 IP, 56 ER, 18 HR, 96 Ks, 36 walks, 3.67 ERA) he will fit in the backend of the rotation as a solid LHP.
Speaking of LHP, Francisco Liriano was a very pleasant surprise for Pittsburgh in 2013. After his freak injury to start the season, Liriano pitched to a 3.02 ERA in 161 IP and 26 starts. His 163 Ks also ranked second on the team despite the time he missed to injury. Even with his impressive numbers, he still had his streak of inconsistencies. At least once a month he allowed four or more earned runs including 5 against the Reds on 7/19, 10 against the Rockies on 8/9 and 7 against the Brewers on 9/4. He was the ace in the playoffs, however, shutting the Reds to only 1 ER in the Wild Card game and 2 against the Cardinals in the NLDS (both wins). His 3 WAR was tops among Pirates pitchers and, as long as his inconsistency doesn’t flame in full force next season; he should be the Pirates ace.
The Pirates ace last season was Burnett and he’s still a question mark. He stated that it was Pittsburgh or no one, but hasn’t come through with that yet. Even if 2013 was his last season with the Pirates, he ended on a high note. 3.30 ERA, 209 Ks, 10 wins in 30 starts with 191 IP. His strikeouts were his highest since 2008 with the Blue Jays, and his ERA was his career lowest since 02 with the Marlins (both 3.30). He is a candidate for stat regression, just like Byrd, and I think the Pirates are in the right by not over-pricing him as he probably won’t pitch to those numbers next season, as shown by some of his very poor performances. The NLDS game against the Cardinals rings most true to that statement. Still, 2013 was a grand year for Burnett.
One final pitcher: Morton. 20 GS, 7 wins, 116 IP, 85 Ks and 3.26 ERA was just as if the Pirates had traded to acquire someone at the deadline. Only three times in the season did he allow more than 3 ER, and he consistently kept the Pirates in games. He isn’t an ace but he’s a great option as a number two or three pitcher for the Pirates and he will add major value next season.
The starters are strong, the depth is strong with or without Burnett, an addition of Volquez may be a questionable one but he’s slated as the number 5 guy as of today, I give the Pirates pitching a B+
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Catcher
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, moving on to catcher.
The players: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry, Tony Sanchez, John Buck
McKenry was unable to be the surprising, off the bench bat in 2013 that he was in the 2012 season for the Pirates. Before his season ending leg injury, he hit .217 (which is lower than his .222 and .233 he hit in the past two seasons), -.3 WAR and three homeruns, compared to the 1.7 WAR and 12 homeruns he hit in 2012. Also, his defense took a huge step back, playing to a -.3 DWAR including a dreadful .146 caught stealing percentage which isn’t much worse than his three year career average of .192. He allows an average of 45 base stealers a season while only throwing out about 10. That’s an egregious difference. Anyway, the Pirates did not hold on to him for the 2014 season and he has since signed with his original team, the Rockies. He’s 28 and doesn’t project to be much better than what he was with the Pirates so, despite his fandom in Pittsburgh, he was a player who was quite expendable.
Speaking of expendable players, let’s move on to John Buck. When he came over to Pittsburgh as part of the Byrd trade, I was quite livid that the Pirates gave up good prospects to get a catcher who hit .215 was a -.4 DWAR behind the plate, and hadn’t hit two homeruns since June. When he got to Pittsburgh, he only played in nine games and hit 8-for-24 without a single XBH. How he got a contract with the Mariners is beyond me as he hasn’t had a good season since 2010, his only year with the Blue Jays, but he, like McKenry, is a player who won’t be missed by Pittsburgh.
Tony Sanchez, due to the injury to McKenry got his first taste of the big leagues and his first 60 at bats weren’t bad, but weren’t impressive either. 14 hits, six of them for XBH (2 HRs 4 2B) isn’t bad for a backup but Sanchez wasn’t drafted to be a backup. He was a 0 DWAR, so replacement level behind the plate, and is 25 so he has some time to grow still. It’s a good thing that he isn’t the starter yet, as he showed that he wasn’t quite ready, but he needs to prove himself in 2014 to see if he’s ready to take the main spot behind the plate after Matins’ contract expires.
Martin’s bat cooled down the stretch (.213 and .127 AVG in Aug and Sept) but he was possibly the most important addition to the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates. A 4.3 WAR, 99 hits, 15 HR and 21 2B, even 9 SB and a good .327 OBP last season plus 2.6 WAR from behind the plate (and the occasional start at 3rd) was an immeasurable boon to the Pirates. Average aside (.226 in 2013) this was his best overall season since 2007 with the Dodgers. His contract expires after 2014, when he will be 31, so resigning him will be a large question mark but it is impossible to look at the 2013 playoff Pirates and not mention Martin thanks to his defense (36 runners caught stealing, 2 errors, 6 DP, and 4 passed balls), strong hitting, and his ability to increase the pitching (placement, pitch calling, and ability to calm down the pitchers at the mound).
The tandem of Sanchez and Martin should work quite well for the 2014 season but from then on, it’s quite the wild card. The drafting of McGuire is great for the long term but not the short term and there isn’t much in the minor league system in terms of catcher. Still, without Martin, it’s quite fair to say that the Pirates never would’ve made it to the playoffs, as shown by the poor backups. Overall, I would rate the catching position a B+
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Right Field
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, moving on to right field.
The players: Jose Tabata, Marlon Byrd, Garrett Jones, Travis Snider, Alex Presley, Andrew Lambo
The Pirates had a revolving door at right field for most of the season. Snider was the official starter to start the season but he had toe/foot injuries that cost him most of the summer and a .215 AVG .281 OBP and 75 Ks in 261 ABs (111 GP) and raised questions as to why the Pirates tendered him a contract for 2014. Rough season last year defensively (injury might’ve had a factor on that), but through his career, he’s always been about league average when it comes to DWAR. However, he is only 25, will be 26 at the start of the season, and is coming off surgery to repair his toe issues so there could be a gem hidden behind the doubt in Snider. Regardless, I’ll be surprised if he is more than the 4th OF player for the Pirates; possibly trade bait or a release candidate as the season marches into the summer months.
Alex Presley was one of my most disliked players for the Pirates so I will admit that there is some personal bias here but he wasn’t really helping the Pirates cause in RF. He hit 19-for-72 in his time in Pittsburgh and, in his four seasons in the majors, only had one year where he hit for a positive WAR and that was 2011 (1.3). Even in Minnesota, he had a -.4 WAR. Oh, he’s never been a positive DWAR player, either, holding a -.5 from last season, his career high being -.3 DWAR in 2010 when he barely played. He has never been someone who shook me as more than a 4th or 5th OF player and I don’t expect to hear great things from him in 2014.
As for Jones and Tabata, I spoke about those two in great lengths; you can check them out in my 1st base and left field report cards. And Lambo? He didn’t really play enough in 2013 to be a factor.
That leaves Marlon Byrd. He has left the Pirates to play for the Phillies, where his career began, after playing for seven different teams (Phillies included). Byrd was a huge midseason addition for the Pittsburgh Pirates, even if it was a trade I didn’t care for at first (brining in John Buck with Byrd was a huge waste of roster space) but his .318 AVG and .357 OBP was a huge lift for the Pirates. His power numbers were a little low in Pittsburgh (12 XBH in 107 ABs compared to 52 XBH in 425 ABs in NY) but I will not deny his attribution to the Pirates season. That being said, I’m quite glad he signed with Philly. He was worth 5 WAR (5.6 if you include his defensive stats) in 2013, the most in his career. I’ve never known a player to have a career year at 36 without use of PEDs (and he was suspended in the past for drug use) and his 2011 season wasn’t that good and 2012 was dreadful for him. 24 home runs is the most in his career and first time in double digits since 2010 (he had double digit home runs 07-10, 09 being the only season he had more than 12 when he hit 20) and his 88 RBIs was his most since the aforementioned 09 season when he had 89. He’s a massive target for statistical regression and I will be honestly quite surprised if he hits double digit home runs this season and I find it highly unlikely that he will live up to his 2-year, 16M deal.
I expect Tabata to be the Opening Day starter in right field for the Pirates in 2014 and I find that to be a good thing (a post on that later) as the Pirates didn’t go and overpay for a player like Byrd and, realistically, the Pirates never had a shot with any of the top OF on the market like Ellsbury, Choo, and Beltran and there aren’t any top targets on the trade market (Stubbs, Fowler, and Morrison traded, Ichiro on the block. Fowler the only outlier to this claim, but that trade makes little sense to me from the Rockies standpoint and I don’t think anyone expected him to be moved) for the Pirates to move a top prospect or very useful reliever for. Also, Cruz and, to a point, Morales, aren’t worth the draft pick and the top dollars that each player had in mind when they turned down a qualifying offer (oh, and Cruz has been suspended for PED usage, too). I don’t think they’re worth the draft pick, even if they sign at league minimum.
Overall, looking at 2013 and ahead to 2014, the Pirates have endured some issues and have a lot of fans speculating. The numbers from Byrd are negated when looking at the big picture and the struggles from Presley and Snyder this season. Tabata and Jones were there, off and on, but for next season it’s down to Tabata, Lambo, and Snyder; quite the group of wildcard players. I grade the RF position for the Pittsburgh Pirates at a C+ (slightly above average) but this is possibly the grade that can rise or fall quite swiftly in 2014.
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Center Field
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, moving on to center field.
The players: Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen, the NL MVP for the 2013 season, was quite the valuable player. Starting on defense, he was a 1 WAR player with a league leading six errors but 11 assists and three double plays turned. 2013 was his best season at defense as McCutchen really showed strides in center field, taking away a lot of ground from opposing hitters. His season at the plate, ironically, wasn’t his career best. That actually came the season before, 2012, where he holds his career record for homeruns, RBIs, runs, and hits. However, in 2013, McCutchen cut away 31 strikeouts, added eight walks, seven stolen bases, seven doubles, and still had an over .300 AVG with double digit homeruns (.317 with 21 HRs) adding up to his career high in WAR at 8.2 (9.2 when you add his DWAR).
Obviously, there is plenty to say about him but most of it has already been done since he won the MVP award. Another plus about the Pirates CF spot is that there are two other players on the Pirates able to handle the slot. Both Marte and Tabata can slide into CF, as they both played that for the majority of their minor league careers, when McCutchen needs a day or gets a little banged up. McCutchen played in 157 games last season (583 ABs, 1,378 innings in CF) so it isn’t likely to be a large factor (his career low in GP is 108 for his rookie season in 2009, 154 in 2010 if we exclude his half-season) but it’s always a plus to have the depth. Obviously, a player like McCutchen is irreplaceable, but it’s always good to have depth.
The Pirates are set at CF for years to come with McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, and, for the farther future, Austin Meadows. The Pirates have a plethora of options and that depth, as well as the rise of McCutchen to top MLB superstar in the past few seasons gives this position an A+
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Left Field
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, moving on to left field.
The players: Starling Marte, Jose Tabata
Marte played this position throughout most of the season, but Tabata did spell him on occasion, 113 games started for Marte compared to 34 for Tabata. Marte, building off his rookie season in 2012, did not disappoint to the expectations of the fans. On defense, he had a 1.8 DWAR which was tops in the league but his six errors was tied for most with Soriano. His five assists in the outfield is a solid number for a player still growing into his position, as he is only 25 and did play center throughout the majority of his minor league career. On offense, he impressed as well. A .280 average with 12 homeruns was solid output for a player, again, still adjusting to the majors and hitting in the leadoff spot. His RBI numbers were a little low, only 35, but that could be a direct result of him hitting in the leadoff spot. His 41 stolen bases, however, is good for second among all left fielders and seventh in the league. His biggest issue is his strikeout number. 138 Ks compared to 25 walks is something you don’t want to see from your leadoff hitter. Ideally, Marte is suited best for the second spot in the lineup or possibly even the fifth spot where his speed and power can almost reset the lineup as pitchers have to worry about him after Alvarez, but more on that in a future post. One can’t ignore that fact that Marte had 48 extra base hits last season and 143 hits total leading to a 5.5 offensive WAR, leading to a 7.3 overall WAR. His future in Pittsburgh looks very bright.
That being said, everyone shouldn’t just outcast Tabata. While he can play all three outfield slots he’s found a home more in right field for the upcoming season due to the emergence of Marte. However, he’s well suited for the role and gets a bad rap in Pittsburgh. His defense wasn’t the best (-.6 DWAR) but his offense was just fine. He hit .282 with six homeruns and 33 RBIs mainly from the second or fifth slot in the order and in 308 ABs. He walked almost as much as Marte did (23 walks) and strikes out a lot less (45 Ks) and was worth an offensive 1.2 WAR in a limited sample size. He’s had two down seasons since his rookie year but he’s had a handful of factors in that (again, I’ll save that for a future post) but he bounced back this season. While he may not be able to steal bases the same way that Marte does, he fits the leadoff spot for the Pirates better than Marte does. Oh, and he’s only 25 (same age as Marte) and he’s signed to a VERY team friendly contract that makes him very strong to keep or trade once Polanco makes his moves to the majors. Left field was a major strength for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a little under-looked as well, and it looks to be quite the asset in 2014.
There is some room for improvement for both players (Marte needs to lower his strikeout rates and up his walk rate while Tabata needs to be consistent and healthy) but for the 2013 season and going into the 2013 season, I rate it at a B+
Cats In The Bleachers 
Recent Comments