MLB 16 Preview: AL Central
Baseball season is upon us! In just a handful of days, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to start giving my projections, moving on to the AL Central. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox has a lot of people believing last season with some flashy moves that ended up leading the team to an underwhelming 76-86 record with holes being exposed at third, second, and the outfield. The rotation of last year was also a bit of a disappointment outside of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, as the team had a total 3.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP thanks to a lackluster bullpen. So the White Sox signed Austin Jackson, Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro, and Mat Latos while trading for Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier to shore up the infield. The rotation is mainly the same, as is the bullpen, while shortstop could be the weak spot on the field for the White Sox. Flashy moves this off-season could lead to success, but they have failed more times than not.
Cleveland Indians: A lot of trade buzz surrounded the Indians this off-season involving the rotation but the Indians kept all their pitching aspects and tried to augment the team by adding smaller pieces like Tommy Hunter, Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, and Juan Uribe, while not taking too many hits to a team that went 81-80. These moves could be an example of the status quo needing little pieces to take the next step or of leaving the team the way it is and watching it to having similar results. The Indians are already playing with a shortened deck to start the season with Lonnie Chisenhall and Michael Brantly starting on the DL this season, a loss of 246 hits, 22 HRs, 106 runs scored, and 128 RBIs. If the Indians start hot thanks to the pitching, then getting those two players back, even after only a short time, will be a huge boon.
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers always have the most perplexing off-seasons. Two 100+ million dollar contracts to Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton, albeit he has an opt-out after two years, even after the Tigers have had many top-dollar contracts like that flame out. The Tigers did add to a bullpen that was very weak last season, it struggled in the regular season and more so after trading Joakim Soria to the Pirates, by trading for Justin Wilson and Francisco Rodriuez and signing Mark Lowe. The rotation struggled mightily last season; not a single Tigers pitcher had over 200 IP and the best ERA of pitchers who stayed the whole season (David Price was traded) was Justin Verlander’s 3.38. The Tigers are holding on to the hope that Anibal Sanchez will bounce back, Verlander will return to form, Zimmermann looks more like his 2014 and 2012 form than his 2013 and 2015 form, and that Mike Pelfrey and Shane Greene can hold down the back end of the rotation. That is a lot of “ifs”.
Kansas City Royals: Looking to repeat as World Series champions, the Royals looked to keep to the winning formula that worked in 2015 of defense and a strong bullpen by signing Jokaim Soria to come back, not as a closer this time, while taking a flier to add to the rotation in signing Ian Kennedy. The Royals team is pretty much the same, right field non-withstanding, but KC is hoping that the minor league pipeline will fill that need well.
Minnesota Twins: A surprise team that made a deep push for the wild card slot in 2015 was not very active in free agency. The only move was to bring Byung Ho Park over from Korea to add to the first base/DH rotation. The Twins are also showing a lot of confidence that Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will improve upon their first taste of major league action as each player struggled at times, albeit Sano did flash power with 18 HRs and 17 doubles, by trading OF Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for some catching depth in John Ryan Murphy. Something that seems a little surprising is the lack of attention the Twins put in to the pitching staff. The team had a 4.07 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP and the lowest ERA for a starter was Kyle Gibson’s 3.84. In the bullpen, Glen Perkins had a roller coaster season as the closer and the best relievers on the team are either gone (in the case of Blane Boyer who is now with the Brewers) or slightly untested (Kevin Jepsen who had a .89 WHIP and 1.61 ERA in 28 IP but only having a very short track record of such success; only one season aside from last year with a WAR above .5).
Predictions:
Royals: 93-69
Indians: 90-72
White Sox: 86-76
Tigers: 79-93
Twins: 73-89
The Royals recipe for success last season was repeated and there is not much of a loss overall from KC to take a big step backwards. The Indians early injury issues could be enough to stop them from making it to the top of the Central, but the pitching is strong enough to push the team to a wild card slot. Both teams wont be afraid to push the envelope come the trade deadline and make major upgrades to make that post season push, as the Royals did for 2015. The White Sox made some splashy moves, but I am not sold on them like I was last season, which did not live up to my expectations. Todd Frazier took a steep slide down hill on the second half of the season in 2015 and that might be why the Reds sold him for such a low price. It is an improvement for the White Sox but not enough to put the team over the top.
The Tigers have another potent looking offense with many high-priced players a part of it, but do not having the pitching to show for it. Yes, the bullpen had an off-season upgrade, but the rotation looks just as weak as it did last season. The Twins are in a similar, yet worse off, boat. They were a surprise team to make a push for the wild card slot last year, but the lack of pitching did the team in. And then the rotation and bullpen had no upgrades during the off-season. Pitching is key to winning and the Twins lack of that aspect will make the team take a huge step backwards in 2016.
The Tale of Three Cities: A Look at the Minnesota Twins’ Playoff Chances
Three teams have risen above my expectations and have put themselves in the midst of a playoff hunt for the second half of the MLB season. The Astros, the Twins, and the Mets are all winning games that I didn’t think that they would. I did believe during the pre-season that the Astros and the Mets were trending upwards right now with their minor league talent and the strong teams that are being built. The Twins, however, I had less hope for. I mentioned in my “Mid-Season Review” piece that, of all those teams, the Twins would be the only one to make the playoffs. Here is a deeper look into the teams and why I believe the team will go where it does. Finally, the Minnesota Twins.
I really didn’t think much of the Twins coming into the season. I thought that the rotation was poor and even poorer when the team lost Ervin Santana to a PED suspension. That being said, I still have them grabbing hold of the last Wild Card spot in the AL. Here’s why:
The Twins are an average team on getting on base (15th in the league in AVG, 21st in OBP) but, once the guys get on base, they seem to have a knack for hitting them in (9th in runs and 10th in RBIs) due to the large number of extra base hits; 256 is 9th in the majors. The offense is average which isn’t amazing, but it’s a better than the missing offense of the Mets and the hot-and-cold offense of the Astros. Another aspect that really helps the Twins this season is the young blood that the Twins are bring up from the minors. Most notably is Sano who is tearing it up in his first 11 games played. Small sample size and the league still has time to adjust to him, but if he keeps hitting at a .300 clip, that’s a huge assist for the Twins. Also waiting in the wings is top prospect Byron Buxton. He struggled in his first taste of major league action before he was injured, but if he’s able to come back and add more juice to the Twins line up, it’ll really boost the Twins playoff chances.
The Astros and Mets don’t have much in the way of offensive reinforcements from the minors the way the Twins have. Astros tried a few call ups but Carlos Correa is the only one who has really put in much of an impact. Twins also have the same amount of players hitting over .250 (min 100 ABs) at eight, with four regulars, as the Mets and Astros have combined (and only four regulars combined as well). Twins have good power in the lineup with three guys having more than 10 home runs from the first half of the season and four guys having more than 35 runs scored as well as a RBI total of over 40. The Twins are a quietly good offensive team. Not great, but good.
The pitching is average as well. 15th in the league in ERA and a pitching staff that doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (537 Ks is last in the majors) but also doesn’t walk many men, either (215 walks, third least in the majors). The rotation just welcomed Santana after his suspension ended but it hasn’t been a very pretty first two starts (12 IP, 8 ER). Tommy Milone (2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and Kyle Gibson (2.85 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) are the rotation leaders right now, but the Twins do need reinforcements from the deadline deals to add to the rotation and the bullpen. Luckily, the offense is doing just enough right now to keep the Twins afloat in the first Wild Card slot and the deadline is filled with more pitchers than hitters.
The Twins can target an ace to lead the staff (Cueto, Kazmir, maybe Samardzija) or go smaller and look at Haren, Latos, Gallardo (if the Rangers decide to sell) and look at Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, A. J. Ramos, Addison Russell, or others to address the bullpen. What I’m getting at is that the Twins have more options when looking to add pitching than the Mets or Astros have of getting the needed offense at the deadline.
The Twins open the second half with the Athletics, Angels, and Yankees. Not quite the easy schedule, but not a very difficult way to open the second half of the season. As with the Astros and the Mets, a bad start out of the gate can really change everything. I see the Twins as a more complete team than the Mets and Astros, however. The offense and pitching is a little more balanced and the players that fit the Twins needs are more plentiful than those that fit the Astros or Mets.
If you read my Mid-Season Review post, you’ll know that I have the Twins getting the second Wild Card slot but losing to the Blue Jays. If you’ve not read my Mid-Season Review post, check it out to see my full post-season predictions (https://citb10.wordpress.com/2015/07/14/2015-mid-season-review/).
Baseball Predictions
Again, I apologize to my readers for not doing my annual MLB preview series. However, I couldn’t go without letting my predictions go down on paper for this upcoming MLB season. Starting with my playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
DS: Pirates over Nationals, Marlins over Dodgers
White Sox over Orioles, Blue Jays over Mariners
CS: Pirates over Marlins
White Sox over Blue Jays
WS: Pirates over White Sox
There is a lot of hype on the Pirates this year and I understand why, as a Pittsburgh native. Small market teams don’t have a large window of opportunity and the Pirates have been pushing the window open for years. The White Sox have turned around their franchise with some shrewd moves this offseason and have a solid roster. Both teams have the ability to be very active at the deadline should issues arise during the season and the fan base to support the team through a long run.
NL MVP: McCutchen – Yes, it’s a bit of a homer pick, but his stats haven’t declined over the past two seasons, the roster overall is better for him, and he’s well known throughout baseball.
NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto – Every year he seems to be close to getting it but either an injury or Kershaw step in the way. Cueto will still be the shining star on what could be a very poor Reds season, might even be moved to a contender come the deadline.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson – He was a candidate last season with the A’s and now calls Toronto his home. A leader on the team that pushes the Blue Jays to playoff relevance could be exactly what he needs to win the award. Akin to McCutchen when he won his.
AL CY Young: Chris Sale – He’s an ace for Chicago and is going to have a bit of a late start to the season. However, as Kershaw showed last season, a dominate season can still win the award, even if you miss the first month. The leader of this team will lead them to a World Series appearance.
ROY: I don’ bother doing this pre-season because of mid-season call ups and expectations that don’t last. Ask me again come the All-Star break.
Overall Divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
MLB 2014 Preview: A.L. Central
The season has technically started with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Australia, but the rest of the teams are still getting ready and are trying to set their rosters for the 2014 season. Now it is time for me to break down each division. I will break it down, going worst to first in my analysis and, after doing all the divisions, I’ll do an award and postseason one. Starting off with the A.L. Central…
1st: The Detroit Tigers aren’t in danger of losing this spot quite yet. Verlander had surgery over the offseason but it was nothing major, the Tigers lost Rendon to TJ surgery, and traded Fielder for Kinsler, which will work out very well as the Tigers needed that defensive upgrade. Shortstop, left field, and third might be issues for the Tigers, as Dirks and Iglesias are injured and Castellanos is a rookie with 18 ABs to his name so those could all be positions that the Tigers look at coming up to the trade deadline but they will give their internal players a chance first. Which gives me logic to the Tigers Fister trade: it was a depth move; not a flashy move but the Tigers knew they needed depth so they traded from a surplus of pitchers to get a good return. Also, bringing in Nathan to close the door will be the best closer the Tigers have had in years. Overall, I’m not worried about the Tigers. Record at worst: 86-76 Record at best 115-47 Record prediction: 101-61
2nd: The Kansas City Royals came very close last season but were unable to make it last season. The Royals proceeded to go out and acquire OF Aoki, a move I love, to be the leadoff hitter, signed Infante, and took a risk on Vargas to help pitch behind Guthrie and Shields, which he can do if he’s healthy. The rotation’s back end is a little weak so the Royals might be active at the deadline but the overall balance of this team is very strong. Depth is a little short so a major injury could cripple this team but, if everyone remains relatively healthy, I see this team in the playoff race. Record at worst: 79-83 Record at best: 95-67 Record prediction: 89-73
3rd: The Indians will take a step back this season due to a weaker rotation (no more Kazmir or Jimenez), an unappealing bullpen (Axford as the closer is a huge risk) and a lineup that underachieved last season. The Indians were able to claw their way into the playoffs last season but Swisher and Bourn need to perform a lot better than last season to help make up for the loss of pitching. This team has fallen from an above average team to that of an average team and the team is struggling to keep the stars on it with any extension with Masterson falling through and a deadline for an extension of Opining Day with Kipness. Record at best: 90-72 Record at worst: 72-90 Record prediction 82-80
4th: The White Sox brought in some talent by acquiring Eaton for center and Abreu for first, taking two risks with young players (and Abreu hasn’t played in America before). Dealt from the rotation was Santiago and from the bullpen, Reed, which could hurt the team as it worked to get younger and more prolific on offense. I think the rotation still needs another top pitcher to fully complete it but I still expect an increase in skill for this team. Record at best: 73-89 Record at worst: 58-104 Record prediction: 72-90
5th: The Twins spent some money on pitching, brining in Nolasco and Hughes, but ignored their offense as no one was brought in to help what was a bottom third offensive team in 2013. The Twins biggest move on the offense was to put Mauer over at first base. Not exactly a blockbuster move. The Twins are going to see what they have in some of their younger players and get ready for next season as they hope that some of the pitching gambles made will pay off in the next two or so seasons when the Twins plethora of top prospects (Buxton, Sano, Meyer, to name a few) are ready to make an impact. Until then, the Twins will struggle. Record at best: 70-92 Record at worst: 52-110 Record prediction 62-100
Cats In The Bleachers 
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