Pirates Payroll: A look at Andrew McCutchen
A lot of talk lately has focused around the Pirates payroll. Never-mind that it is projected to be the largest opening day payroll in Pirates history at 93 million dollars, which is a tick under the almost 96 million dollar payroll the Pirates ended with last season, and will increase when the official opening day roster is announced as some minor league signings have a chance to make the roster, thus changing their salaries. People have still been claiming that the Pirates do not spend enough and, lately, the hot players mentioned have been Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole
Cole had his moment in my last article (here) so McCutchen gets a chance to be looked at. The big topic about McCutchen is that his contract expires after the 2018 season and that he is being paid well under the market rate for MVP caliber center fielders. Many people would like Cutch to stick in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career. McCutchen wants it, Pirates GM Neil Huntington wants it, even I want it, but only if the price is right.
I am going to say it now to get it out of the way early: the Pirates do NOT need to change McCutchen’s contract right now. Cutch signed his deal knowing he might play over what the Pirates offered him. It is the same thing as Antonio Brown and the Steelers and they have not done anything to change his incredibly team-friendly deal (Link) but that is a football example. So look at the deal that Salvador Perez signed.
Perez signed a deal with the Kansas City Royals in 2011 after playing in 39 games. His deal was worth seven million dollars over five years and holds three team options that run it through 2019 and puts the value at 26.5 million. He later said that he regrets signing that deal and he wants to talk to the Royals about a new contract. That was June of last year. While there has been talk about Perez getting a new deal, the Royals are not in any hurry to extend it or to add to it and when the time comes, the team holds the leverage. They will pay him a little over 17 million over the next four years to play in KC and that is a huge bargain when looking at the price of other catchers. Buster Posey and Brian McCann will be making 20 and 17 million dollars this year alone. KC does not want to add kind of financial addition. In fact, the largest catcher cost for a small market team is Kurt Suzuki of the Minnesota Twins. KC has no motivation to enter that kind of financial position for the catching position right now. KC allocates those other funds to other positions and look, it won a World Series last year.
For the Pirates, it is a very similar place. The door is open to keep McCutchen around but the Pirates are not in a hurry about it right now. The funds that Cutch could be commanding are being used to add other players and extend other pieces of the team long term. McCutchen is being paid about 13 million this season and, if the payroll is about 95 million dollars, he equals about seven percent of the Pirates payroll. McCutchen also is not being out earned by many players on the team; the only Pirate making more is Francisco Liriano at 13.6 million dollars.
Extending players well into their 30’s has not worked out too well lately for MLB players, either. David Wright, Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, and Matt Kemp have all become contracts that have been an albatross for the signing team, Ken Griffey Jr’s extension with the Cincinnati Reds was not overly favorable for CIN, and Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and Evan Longoria all have a chance of doing the same. Votto has not been much a huge game changer lately with CIN (admittedly, the team around him has not been very good lately), Tulo is not with the Rockies anymore, and Longoria did sign his new deal with the Tampa Bay Rays when TB had low-cost control of him still and, akin to Votto, he is becoming less of a star player and more of a very-good type player.
Why would the Pirates risk having such an event happen to them? No one is against keeping McCutchen around, but it becomes very hard to do when the player wants to be paid based on what he did and the front office wants to pay for what he is going to do. McCutchen will be 31 when his contract expires, assuming the Pirates pick up his 2018 option (which is a very good assumption) and at that point, a small market team cannot afford to sign a player to a 100 million dollar contract that might strap the team’s payroll very long term. It would be like the Steelers sinking 20 percent of the salary cap space into one player over the age of 30. It makes it very hard to build a team around that one player and harms the future even more if the player gets injured or just fails to perform to the level that is expected when the contract is signed.
Something I think would be fair is this: After McCutchen has had his 2018 option picked up by the Pirates (14.5M); the Pirates should extend a 4 year, 62 million dollar extension (AAV of 15.5M) with incentives that take it up to 67 million and a team option for a fifth season at 16M or a buyout of 3 million. Essentially, it is a four year, 65-70 million dollar deal that can become five years, 80 million with an option and an extra year of incentives (AVV of 16M). That may seem a little low, but going off of today’s numbers, McCutchen would be the fifth highest AVV for all center fielders and 18th for all outfielders and that list does include some very bad contracts (Josh Hamilton, Hanley Ramirez, Braun, Carl Crawford, Kemp) and some contracts on the fringe of being bad (Justin Upton (personal opinion), Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Werth, Hunter Pence, and Andre Either). And notice how none of those names are on a small market team and the five players (Ramirez, Crawford, Upton, Choo, and Pence) that left a small market team to sign with a large market one. And that is just contract data from outfielders.
Long and short of it, it is too risky for a team like Pittsburgh to sign a player on the wrong side of 30 to a very large contract. If another team wants to do pay McCutchen for what he did, then that is their choice. If McCutchen wants to stay with Pittsburgh, he will take the “hometown discount” because he understands the sacrifices some top players have to make to win in a small market town like Pittsburgh. Or at least he should from his tenure in Pittsburgh, watching players come and go. And remember, McCutchen did his chance to play in PIT because the Pirates traded away a bigger contract to open up a slot at center when Nate McLouth was traded to Atlanta.
2015 Mid-Season Review
Well, the Mets are winning the games that I thought the Marlins would, the Astros are winning the games I thought the Mariners would, and the Twins/Royals are winning the games that I thought the White Sox would. Realizing that three of my playoff teams, and one of my World Series teams, are more than likely out of the running, I’ve come forward with some changes to my pre-season picks.
Preseason playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals AL East: Orioles
NL Central: Pirates AL Central: White Sox
NL West: Dodgers AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
Mid season playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals AL East: Rays
NL Central: Pirates AL Central: Royals
NL West: Dodgers AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Cardinals and Cubs Wildcard: Blue Jays and Twins
My NL stays primarily the same. I still believe the Pirates will over-take the Cardinals for the division lead and might end up with the best record in the NL, if not the majors. Just replacing the Cubs for the Marlins as Miami has been a major disappointment and Chicago is good enough to push for the Wild Card slot. Especially since their competition is the surprising, and offensively anemic, Mets and the injury prone, hot-and-cold Giants.
AL, however, is different. It seems that when I put my faith in the Rays, they disappoint me. When I take it away, they manage to surprise me. However, they have the best pitching in the AL East and pitching wins games. I didn’t have faith in the Royals; I thought their pitching was rough and Morales has been a huge surprise. They also have the depth to deal with the loss of Alex Gordon. I don’t think the Astros can continue their torrid pace; currently on an eight game losing streak and this team is basically “home run or bust” from top to bottom. The Wild Card gets exciting but the Blue Jays have the offense, they just need the pitching. And I’m sure they’ll go after a top target (Cueto, Kazmir, etc…) and the Twins have a large enough lead and have been consistent enough to instill enough confidence that they’ll hold on to the slot.
DS: Pirates over Cubs, Nationals over Dodgers
Royals over Blue Jays, Rays over Angels
CS: Pirates over Nationals
Royals over Rays
WS: Pirates over Royals in six.
I’m still driving the Pirates World Series champion’s bandwagon. It’ll be tough to get past the Nationals, but if the Pirates over-take the Cardinals, they’ll be able to over-take anyone. The Royals have a little easier road to the World Series as, in my opinion, the AL isn’t as strong as it was last year or as strong as the NL.
Pre-Season Award winners:
NL MVP: Adrew McCutchen NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson AL CY Young: Chris Sale
NL and AL ROY not selected.
Mid-Season Award winners:
NL MVP: Bryce Harper NL CY Young: Gerrit Cole
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson AL CY Young: Chris Sale
My NL predictions weren’t bad, just a few player have risen up. Harper is the mid-season favorite to me and I’ll ride that hot card. Pitching wise, there are a lot of good choices for both the AL and the NL. But Cole, should he continue what he’s doing now, will set some career highs, possible franchise records, and is succeeding past what even I thought he would this preseason.
My AL predictions are staying the same. Sale is a huge bright spot on a struggling White Sox team. And while they won’t be playoff bound, his numbers are bright enough to take the attention. As for Donaldson, he’s currently in the top five of the following AL categories: WAR, hits, runs, HRs, RBIs, XBH, D-WAR, and is top 10 in doubles. Oh, and he’s been healthy all season long.
Rookie of the Year: I told you to ask me mid-season and here are my picks:
AL: Billy Burns, Athletics NL: Kris Bryant, Cubs
Burns has been a catalyst for the Athletics. He hits well for extra bases (10 doubles, five triples, two HRs) and has great speed (17 stolen bases, caught only three times) has 38 runs, and has 82 hits. He leads all AL rookies in those categories sans XBH, where he’s third.
Bryant had some drama to start his ML career, but with the numbers he’s putting up, why wouldn’t any team want to ensure an extra season of control? He leads NL rookies in runs and RBIs and is second in XBH, HRs, WAR, and third in doubles and total hits. Only problem is that he strikes out A LOT (101 Ks in 286 ABs).
Pre-Season overall divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
Mid-Season overall divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates (**) Dodgers
Mets Cardinals Giants
Braves Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Padres
AL East: Central: West:
Rays Royals (*) Angels
Blue Jays Twins Astros
Yankees Indians Rangers
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Red Sox White Sox (#) Mariners
Baseball Predictions
Again, I apologize to my readers for not doing my annual MLB preview series. However, I couldn’t go without letting my predictions go down on paper for this upcoming MLB season. Starting with my playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
DS: Pirates over Nationals, Marlins over Dodgers
White Sox over Orioles, Blue Jays over Mariners
CS: Pirates over Marlins
White Sox over Blue Jays
WS: Pirates over White Sox
There is a lot of hype on the Pirates this year and I understand why, as a Pittsburgh native. Small market teams don’t have a large window of opportunity and the Pirates have been pushing the window open for years. The White Sox have turned around their franchise with some shrewd moves this offseason and have a solid roster. Both teams have the ability to be very active at the deadline should issues arise during the season and the fan base to support the team through a long run.
NL MVP: McCutchen – Yes, it’s a bit of a homer pick, but his stats haven’t declined over the past two seasons, the roster overall is better for him, and he’s well known throughout baseball.
NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto – Every year he seems to be close to getting it but either an injury or Kershaw step in the way. Cueto will still be the shining star on what could be a very poor Reds season, might even be moved to a contender come the deadline.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson – He was a candidate last season with the A’s and now calls Toronto his home. A leader on the team that pushes the Blue Jays to playoff relevance could be exactly what he needs to win the award. Akin to McCutchen when he won his.
AL CY Young: Chris Sale – He’s an ace for Chicago and is going to have a bit of a late start to the season. However, as Kershaw showed last season, a dominate season can still win the award, even if you miss the first month. The leader of this team will lead them to a World Series appearance.
ROY: I don’ bother doing this pre-season because of mid-season call ups and expectations that don’t last. Ask me again come the All-Star break.
Overall Divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
Pirates 2013 Report Card Series: Center Field
As the MLB is navigating through the Free Agent period, many teams are reflecting on their players, and the players available, to see what will upgrade the team the most. To join in on this process, here is the beginning of my Pirates report card series, moving on to center field.
The players: Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen, the NL MVP for the 2013 season, was quite the valuable player. Starting on defense, he was a 1 WAR player with a league leading six errors but 11 assists and three double plays turned. 2013 was his best season at defense as McCutchen really showed strides in center field, taking away a lot of ground from opposing hitters. His season at the plate, ironically, wasn’t his career best. That actually came the season before, 2012, where he holds his career record for homeruns, RBIs, runs, and hits. However, in 2013, McCutchen cut away 31 strikeouts, added eight walks, seven stolen bases, seven doubles, and still had an over .300 AVG with double digit homeruns (.317 with 21 HRs) adding up to his career high in WAR at 8.2 (9.2 when you add his DWAR).
Obviously, there is plenty to say about him but most of it has already been done since he won the MVP award. Another plus about the Pirates CF spot is that there are two other players on the Pirates able to handle the slot. Both Marte and Tabata can slide into CF, as they both played that for the majority of their minor league careers, when McCutchen needs a day or gets a little banged up. McCutchen played in 157 games last season (583 ABs, 1,378 innings in CF) so it isn’t likely to be a large factor (his career low in GP is 108 for his rookie season in 2009, 154 in 2010 if we exclude his half-season) but it’s always a plus to have the depth. Obviously, a player like McCutchen is irreplaceable, but it’s always good to have depth.
The Pirates are set at CF for years to come with McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, and, for the farther future, Austin Meadows. The Pirates have a plethora of options and that depth, as well as the rise of McCutchen to top MLB superstar in the past few seasons gives this position an A+
Cats In The Bleachers 
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