MLB 16 Preview: NL Central
Baseball season is upon us! Tomorrow, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to start giving my projections, moving on to the NL Central. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Chicago Cubs: My oh my does this team look scary on paper! The rotation was a need so the Cubs brought in John Lackey. The Cubs saw an opportunity to make the team stronger while hurting a divisional foe so they signed Jason Heyward. The team wanted more versatility so in came Ben Zobrist. Add on to that the youth and skill of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Jorge Soler (who is not even a starter), it starts to scare you. Now the Cubs are hoping that Lackey and John Lester repeat their 2015 and that Jake Arrieta continues to dominate the way he did at the end of 2015, but all three of them do carry some risks and Arrieta may not be quite as good as his end of 2015 (look at his playoffs sans the Wild Card game. Arm fatigue might be a factor) but even his first half was strong and the Cubs would love to have that continue. The bullpen is still a little on the weak side, as is the defense (especially in the outfield, sans Heyward), but this team has depth and prospects to augment the team should the need arise. Will some of these longer deals hurt the team in the future? Probably. But for now, it makes one grand-looking team.
Cincinnati Reds: A team committed to a rebuild did trade away Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman for some less-than-thrilling returns, but each player did have his issues, thus lowering the trade vale. Other than that, it was a very quiet off-season for the Reds with just a few minor league signings as the team looks to give the plethora of young players a chance to perform while looking to shop some other veterans such as Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. Honestly, that is about what fans can expect to see out of the Reds this year. Trades, struggles, growing pains, and the development of younger players.
Milwaukee Brewers: Another team committed to a full rebuild this off-season, the team listened on many players and traded away Jean Segura, Adam Lind, Khris Davis, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jason Rogers, just to name a few. Just like the Reds, most of the spending done by the Brewers was in minor league signings and Milwaukee does not look to be done with the trades yet. Left on the trading block is catcher Jonathan Lucroy who, with a strong and healthy start to the season, could fetch a pretty penny for this organization. And it would not surprise me to see Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar, Matt Garza, and Ryan Braun shopped around during the deadline as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates: In a very typical, Neil Huntington-esq off-season, many fans are scratching their heads and wondering what in the world could possibly be expected out of the Pirates this year. Gone are AJ Burnett, JA Happ, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Charlie Morton (and others), and in comes John Jaso, Neftali Feliz Juan Nicasio, David Freese, Ryan Vogelsong, John Niese, Jason Rodgers, and Jake Goebbert. A lot of little names that are coming off of injury, down seasons, small roles, etc… The exact type of players that the Pirates love to work with. Jaso brings a huge OBP upgrade over Alvaerz a the expensive of power, and more than likely, a defensive upgrade as well. Feliz and Nicasio looked very strong in spring, and many were depth moves for the organization should another player get injured and the Pirates need a new starter. Plus, the bullpen looks just as strong as it was this time last season, the outfield is one of the best in all of baseball, there are plenty of prospects to get excited about coming up in June/July, and I have learned in the last three seasons to just trust Huntington, Clint Hurdle, Ray Searage, and the like.
St. Louis Cardinals: I think the only team that got hurt worse by a divisional opponent than the Cardinals was the Dodgers, but it is close. With the Cubs snagging Lackey and Heyward, it really weakened the 2015 best regular season team in baseball. Trading for Tony Cruz to add some depth at catcher was a keen move as the team struggled when Yadier Molina had his injury problems that may persist into 2016 and also added depth in trading for Jedd Gyorko, trading away Jay as the team did have a glut of outfielders, and still does. Adding Mike Leake was a nice touch, but the rotation does not intimidate me as there are a lot of injury prone pitchers in it and the bullpen looks to be pretty average. Another thing about the Cardinals: if you play shortstop for them, you might have a bad day. St. Louis has already lost two starting shortstops to injury and Gyorko is not a good defender at that position. The outfield, while it has plenty of depth, is also hoping for Randal Grichuck and Stephen Piscotty to be just as productive as they were when they stepped into their emergency roles last season. If one or both falters and needs to be benched or sent to AAA, or Matt Holliday plays the same, or a lesser, amount of games he did last year (76) it could swiftly put a strain on the depth of the Cardinals.
Predictions:
Cubs: 98-64
Pirates: 92-70
Cardinals: 88-74
Reds: 70-92
Brewers: 63-99
The Cubs, again on paper, appear to be the best team in the majors. A lot can go wrong, but a lot can go right with this team. I still the think that the pitching is a little weak, but the Cubs look like a team willing to do what it must to get the right pieces. And I do love their depth. As for the Pirates, I said it before and I will say it again, I’ve learned to just trust in Huntington and let him do his thing. Will the Pirates take a step back? Probably. But the Pirates have a strong wave of mid-summer reinforcements coming up and I do think that the off-season moves are just being picked at very feverishly by the fans because they want the splashy moves, seeing as the Pirates have come so close yet been so far for the past three seasons. The Cardinals have taken enough hits to warrant them dropping about 10 wins from last season. I cannot help but feel that the Cardinals caught lightning in a bottle many times last season but it wore them down last season, leading to a swift exit against the Cubs. St. Louis is still going to challenge teams and be in the thick of the race, but this year, it looks to be a race for a wild card slot, not the divisional crown.
The Reds look to be a step ahead of the Brewers right now in that they have more major-league ready talent than Milwakee does and I do think that the Reds rotation could be a better-than-average one while Milwakee is still looking to add pitching. Both teams should be active sellers at the deadline and will look to give many young players a chance to make a case to continue to be part of the future, but the Reds are about a season ahead of the Brewers, thanks to the fact that they had a few more high-profile assets last season to trade away.
Pirates Payroll: A look at Andrew McCutchen
A lot of talk lately has focused around the Pirates payroll. Never-mind that it is projected to be the largest opening day payroll in Pirates history at 93 million dollars, which is a tick under the almost 96 million dollar payroll the Pirates ended with last season, and will increase when the official opening day roster is announced as some minor league signings have a chance to make the roster, thus changing their salaries. People have still been claiming that the Pirates do not spend enough and, lately, the hot players mentioned have been Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole
Cole had his moment in my last article (here) so McCutchen gets a chance to be looked at. The big topic about McCutchen is that his contract expires after the 2018 season and that he is being paid well under the market rate for MVP caliber center fielders. Many people would like Cutch to stick in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career. McCutchen wants it, Pirates GM Neil Huntington wants it, even I want it, but only if the price is right.
I am going to say it now to get it out of the way early: the Pirates do NOT need to change McCutchen’s contract right now. Cutch signed his deal knowing he might play over what the Pirates offered him. It is the same thing as Antonio Brown and the Steelers and they have not done anything to change his incredibly team-friendly deal (Link) but that is a football example. So look at the deal that Salvador Perez signed.
Perez signed a deal with the Kansas City Royals in 2011 after playing in 39 games. His deal was worth seven million dollars over five years and holds three team options that run it through 2019 and puts the value at 26.5 million. He later said that he regrets signing that deal and he wants to talk to the Royals about a new contract. That was June of last year. While there has been talk about Perez getting a new deal, the Royals are not in any hurry to extend it or to add to it and when the time comes, the team holds the leverage. They will pay him a little over 17 million over the next four years to play in KC and that is a huge bargain when looking at the price of other catchers. Buster Posey and Brian McCann will be making 20 and 17 million dollars this year alone. KC does not want to add kind of financial addition. In fact, the largest catcher cost for a small market team is Kurt Suzuki of the Minnesota Twins. KC has no motivation to enter that kind of financial position for the catching position right now. KC allocates those other funds to other positions and look, it won a World Series last year.
For the Pirates, it is a very similar place. The door is open to keep McCutchen around but the Pirates are not in a hurry about it right now. The funds that Cutch could be commanding are being used to add other players and extend other pieces of the team long term. McCutchen is being paid about 13 million this season and, if the payroll is about 95 million dollars, he equals about seven percent of the Pirates payroll. McCutchen also is not being out earned by many players on the team; the only Pirate making more is Francisco Liriano at 13.6 million dollars.
Extending players well into their 30’s has not worked out too well lately for MLB players, either. David Wright, Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, and Matt Kemp have all become contracts that have been an albatross for the signing team, Ken Griffey Jr’s extension with the Cincinnati Reds was not overly favorable for CIN, and Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and Evan Longoria all have a chance of doing the same. Votto has not been much a huge game changer lately with CIN (admittedly, the team around him has not been very good lately), Tulo is not with the Rockies anymore, and Longoria did sign his new deal with the Tampa Bay Rays when TB had low-cost control of him still and, akin to Votto, he is becoming less of a star player and more of a very-good type player.
Why would the Pirates risk having such an event happen to them? No one is against keeping McCutchen around, but it becomes very hard to do when the player wants to be paid based on what he did and the front office wants to pay for what he is going to do. McCutchen will be 31 when his contract expires, assuming the Pirates pick up his 2018 option (which is a very good assumption) and at that point, a small market team cannot afford to sign a player to a 100 million dollar contract that might strap the team’s payroll very long term. It would be like the Steelers sinking 20 percent of the salary cap space into one player over the age of 30. It makes it very hard to build a team around that one player and harms the future even more if the player gets injured or just fails to perform to the level that is expected when the contract is signed.
Something I think would be fair is this: After McCutchen has had his 2018 option picked up by the Pirates (14.5M); the Pirates should extend a 4 year, 62 million dollar extension (AAV of 15.5M) with incentives that take it up to 67 million and a team option for a fifth season at 16M or a buyout of 3 million. Essentially, it is a four year, 65-70 million dollar deal that can become five years, 80 million with an option and an extra year of incentives (AVV of 16M). That may seem a little low, but going off of today’s numbers, McCutchen would be the fifth highest AVV for all center fielders and 18th for all outfielders and that list does include some very bad contracts (Josh Hamilton, Hanley Ramirez, Braun, Carl Crawford, Kemp) and some contracts on the fringe of being bad (Justin Upton (personal opinion), Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Werth, Hunter Pence, and Andre Either). And notice how none of those names are on a small market team and the five players (Ramirez, Crawford, Upton, Choo, and Pence) that left a small market team to sign with a large market one. And that is just contract data from outfielders.
Long and short of it, it is too risky for a team like Pittsburgh to sign a player on the wrong side of 30 to a very large contract. If another team wants to do pay McCutchen for what he did, then that is their choice. If McCutchen wants to stay with Pittsburgh, he will take the “hometown discount” because he understands the sacrifices some top players have to make to win in a small market town like Pittsburgh. Or at least he should from his tenure in Pittsburgh, watching players come and go. And remember, McCutchen did his chance to play in PIT because the Pirates traded away a bigger contract to open up a slot at center when Nate McLouth was traded to Atlanta.
2015 Mid-Season Review
Well, the Mets are winning the games that I thought the Marlins would, the Astros are winning the games I thought the Mariners would, and the Twins/Royals are winning the games that I thought the White Sox would. Realizing that three of my playoff teams, and one of my World Series teams, are more than likely out of the running, I’ve come forward with some changes to my pre-season picks.
Preseason playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals AL East: Orioles
NL Central: Pirates AL Central: White Sox
NL West: Dodgers AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
Mid season playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals AL East: Rays
NL Central: Pirates AL Central: Royals
NL West: Dodgers AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Cardinals and Cubs Wildcard: Blue Jays and Twins
My NL stays primarily the same. I still believe the Pirates will over-take the Cardinals for the division lead and might end up with the best record in the NL, if not the majors. Just replacing the Cubs for the Marlins as Miami has been a major disappointment and Chicago is good enough to push for the Wild Card slot. Especially since their competition is the surprising, and offensively anemic, Mets and the injury prone, hot-and-cold Giants.
AL, however, is different. It seems that when I put my faith in the Rays, they disappoint me. When I take it away, they manage to surprise me. However, they have the best pitching in the AL East and pitching wins games. I didn’t have faith in the Royals; I thought their pitching was rough and Morales has been a huge surprise. They also have the depth to deal with the loss of Alex Gordon. I don’t think the Astros can continue their torrid pace; currently on an eight game losing streak and this team is basically “home run or bust” from top to bottom. The Wild Card gets exciting but the Blue Jays have the offense, they just need the pitching. And I’m sure they’ll go after a top target (Cueto, Kazmir, etc…) and the Twins have a large enough lead and have been consistent enough to instill enough confidence that they’ll hold on to the slot.
DS: Pirates over Cubs, Nationals over Dodgers
Royals over Blue Jays, Rays over Angels
CS: Pirates over Nationals
Royals over Rays
WS: Pirates over Royals in six.
I’m still driving the Pirates World Series champion’s bandwagon. It’ll be tough to get past the Nationals, but if the Pirates over-take the Cardinals, they’ll be able to over-take anyone. The Royals have a little easier road to the World Series as, in my opinion, the AL isn’t as strong as it was last year or as strong as the NL.
Pre-Season Award winners:
NL MVP: Adrew McCutchen NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson AL CY Young: Chris Sale
NL and AL ROY not selected.
Mid-Season Award winners:
NL MVP: Bryce Harper NL CY Young: Gerrit Cole
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson AL CY Young: Chris Sale
My NL predictions weren’t bad, just a few player have risen up. Harper is the mid-season favorite to me and I’ll ride that hot card. Pitching wise, there are a lot of good choices for both the AL and the NL. But Cole, should he continue what he’s doing now, will set some career highs, possible franchise records, and is succeeding past what even I thought he would this preseason.
My AL predictions are staying the same. Sale is a huge bright spot on a struggling White Sox team. And while they won’t be playoff bound, his numbers are bright enough to take the attention. As for Donaldson, he’s currently in the top five of the following AL categories: WAR, hits, runs, HRs, RBIs, XBH, D-WAR, and is top 10 in doubles. Oh, and he’s been healthy all season long.
Rookie of the Year: I told you to ask me mid-season and here are my picks:
AL: Billy Burns, Athletics NL: Kris Bryant, Cubs
Burns has been a catalyst for the Athletics. He hits well for extra bases (10 doubles, five triples, two HRs) and has great speed (17 stolen bases, caught only three times) has 38 runs, and has 82 hits. He leads all AL rookies in those categories sans XBH, where he’s third.
Bryant had some drama to start his ML career, but with the numbers he’s putting up, why wouldn’t any team want to ensure an extra season of control? He leads NL rookies in runs and RBIs and is second in XBH, HRs, WAR, and third in doubles and total hits. Only problem is that he strikes out A LOT (101 Ks in 286 ABs).
Pre-Season overall divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
Mid-Season overall divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates (**) Dodgers
Mets Cardinals Giants
Braves Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Padres
AL East: Central: West:
Rays Royals (*) Angels
Blue Jays Twins Astros
Yankees Indians Rangers
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Red Sox White Sox (#) Mariners
The 2015 One-Star Roster
Photo Credit: MLB.com
As the All-Star Game comes closer and the teams are on the beginning of the All-Star Break, it is a perfect time to do what is my favorite post that I do every year: the One-Star Roster.
It isn’t what you think it is. Every year, right before the All-Star Game, I make my own All-Star roster, but I use different rules. Each roster has 15 players and each team has one representative. So not only am I looking for the best player from each team, but also for the best player from each position. There is the regular starting eight, three SP, two RP, and two bench players, except in the AL where they have one bench player and one DH. Then, I make the rosters and simulate the games on MLB The Show in a best-of-three series.
Qualifications: 200 ABs and 450 innings played at the position or 100/30 IP (SP/RP). Must not be on the DL at the time of which I write this, not traded before I wrote this, and not suspended for a drug-related incident in the past season.
Starting with the AL:
C: Stephen Vogt, Athletics: Tricky position because not many qualify based off of my stipulations, but Vogt makes the cut. Offensively, he leads all qualified AL catchers in AVG, RBI, OBP, SLG %, BB and WAR. One of the more intriguing players on the A’s roster and, if he’s traded, could command quite the king’s ransom.
1B: Jose Abreu, White Sox: Miguel Cabrera, right? Wrong. He’s on the DL (which makes it a little easier to fill in this whole roster, actually. You’ll understand why.) This year, the starting spot goes back to White Sox first basemen Jose Abreu. The team leader in most offensive categories and still a huge power threat over at first.
2B: Jason Kipnis, Indians: Not as easy of a selection as you’d think, keeping in mind the need for a player from each team, but I can’t say no to the Indians’ Jason Kipnis. Valuable on defense (.6 DWAR) and offense (AL second basemen leader in AVG, doubles, hits, triples, walks, and a very impressive 4.7 WAR) it would be a crime to not have him on this list.
3B: Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: It won’t be the incumbent Adrian Beltre this year on the roster but a new-comer, and a runner up from last year, Josh Donaldson of the Blue Jays. Leads AL third basemen in Runs, Hits, Doubles (tied), HRs, RBIs, and is in the top three in walks and AVG. A bright light on what is a bit of a dim Blue Jays team.
SS: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox: Leads AL shortstops in hits, doubles, RBIs, and WAR, he’s been the brightest part of a dreary Red Sox 2015 team.
LF: Brett Gardner, Yankees: He the AL LF leader in AVG, SB, and OBP and is becoming a perfect table setter for the Yankees. Not much home run power, but plenty of extra base hits (22 doubles, 3 triples, 10 HRs).
CF: Mike Trout, Angels: The only player to make it onto the roster four years in a row (and four times out of the eight that I have done this is also a record) and he’s still deserving of this slot. He leads AL CF in hits, runs, HRs, RBIs, BB, and WAR. He is third in doubles and one SB away from double digits. What a great player, year in and year out.
RF: J. D. Martinez, Tigers: Nelson Cruz doesn’t qualify but Martinez fills in quite well in this slot. 25 HRs, 59 RBIs, 16 doubles, 3.2 WAR. What a find and chance the Tigers took on the ex-Astro’s player (DFA’d and signed to a minor league deal).
DH: Prince Fielder, Rangers: A huge comeback season after the loss of a season with his neck injury last year. While he isn’t mashing quite as much as some envisioned upon his move to Arlington, 114 hits is a lot. In fact, it’s the most in the AL.
SP: Dallas Keuchel, Astros: A star who has really erupted this season to an AL lead in innings pitched, WAR, a tie in wins, is second in ERA and third in WHIP. You can’t ask for much more from a pitcher who is leading a staff of a division leader.
SP: Chris Archer, Rays: A pitcher who wasn’t supposed to lead a staff has exploded to the top due to a decimated pitching staff on the Rays. Third in the AL in strikeouts, fourth in WHIP, and tied for the most starts this season.
SP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners: A three-peat for this pitcher on my roster, he’s still performing at a high clip to the tune of a 2.84 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11 wins, and 112 strikeouts.
RP: Wade Davis, Royals: He has allowed two runs, earned, in 39 IP. Has allowed 34 base runners (22 hits, 12 walks) but has struck out 44 players. 12 holds, nine saves, and huge success this season from the bullpen in any role.
RP: Glen Perkins, Twins: The AL leader in saves (28) is one major reason for why the Twins are having the success that they are this season. Five earned runs allowed in 37.1 IP, 31 base runners allowed and 36 strikeouts. He and Davis are what teams want out of every relief pitcher.
Bench: Manny Machado, Orioles: A solid hitter and a solid defender. He adds some defensive flexibility to the infield and some big pop off the bench. He’s a player who is deserving of this team, (101 hits, 19 home runs, 4.8 WAR) and the Orioles representative member.
Now for the NL:
C: Nick Hundley, Rockies: What about Buster Posey? Hundley is playing a level close to that of Posey and the Giants have production coming from other positions as well (and an injury kind of forced some changes. Keep reading, you’ll see). Second best AVG among NL catchers (.309) and a 31.8 caught stealing % is a strong place to start for this position.
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Easy selection. Leads all NL first basemen in AVG, HRs, RBIs, stolen bases, runs, hits, walks, OBP, and has a whopping 5.6 WAR. A total of 5.9 Wins Above Replacement when you factor in his .3 D-WAR for his work on defense. Man, imagine what this guy could do for a team like the Pirates, Cardinals, or any team that is playoff caliber.
2B: Joe Panik, Giants: Man, I had Dee Gordon of Miami in this slot all ready to go, but then he got himself injured. That’s why I waited till Monday to release this. Panik is just as good, though. 2.9 WAR is tied with Gordon and Panik has the most runs scored compared to all other NL second basemen. And he’s no slouch on defense; two errors in 384 chances, 716 innings played and a 99.5 fielding %.
3B: Todd Frazier, Reds: This slot has many qualified candidates, but Frazier is the all-around best when it comes to third basemen in the NL. Leads NL third basemen in HRs, doubles, runs, tied for first in hits, and has the second best WAR. He also hits for average as well as power (.284 with a .337 OBP).
SS: Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals: I wanted to save St. Louis’s slot for Wacha, but after Peralta and Tulo, there is a huge drop off when it comes to NL shortstops. Peralta is a stalwart at the position this season as he is second to all NL shortstops in at-bats and innings played. He brings power (13 HRs, 20 doubles) and average (100 hits leads all NL shortstops) as well as defense (only three errors committed so far) to a position that has a dearth in premium talent right now.
LF: Starling Marte, Pirates: This position was tricky, trying to fulfill the innings requirement. But Marte fits the bill and brings the best overall game to this position. His speed (16 stolen bases), power (13 home runs), and ability to hit the ball for average and in the clutch (87 hits, .279 AVG, and 49 RBIs) go along with his defense that has a perfect fielding percentage gives him the slot.
CF: Cameron Maybin, Braves: Almost an after-thought in the Kimbrel deal, Maybin has thrived in Atlanta. A .289 AVG to go along with an overall ability to get on base and hit for some power might have the Padres wishing they had kept him instead of going with their “let’s-throw-a-lot-of-new-guys-against-the-wall-and-hope-it-works” approach to the outfield this year. His defense is rough, a -1.4 DWAR, but his 2.64 range factor is third highest to all NL center fielders.
RF: Bryce Harper, Nationals: A mid-season favorite for NL MVP, he’s tearing the cover off the ball. 26 HRs, 61 RBIs, 63 walks, 21 doubles, 59 runs, and a 6.2 WAR all lead NL right fielders and his AVG, doubles, runs, and WAR all lead the majors.
SP: Zack Greinke, Dodgers: Choosing Greinke over Kershaw because Greinke has the better WHIP, less runs allowed by more than half, and has a WAR more than double than what Kershaw has. Not saying that Kershaw is ad, just that Greinke is better this season.
SP: Jacob DeGrom, Mets: He’s taken the league by storm since coming into the majors. A 0.92 WHIP, 112/21 (5.3 Ks per walk) K/BB ratio, and if you add his hits allowed plus earned runs (84 and 27) it is still less than his strikeout total (111 to 112). He’s taken command of this young Mets pitching staff.
SP: Jake Arrieta, Cubs: Maybe he should be making the Jon Lester money on this team and not Jon Lester. Arrieta has a .99 WHIP, 123 Ks, and a 2.66 ERA, all better numbers than Lester.
RP: A.J. Ramos, Marlins: A bright spot on an underwhelming Miami pitching staff, he’s thrown 40.2 innings allowing 29 base runners and only five runs compared to 50 Ks. His ability to close (14 saves) and set-up (4 holds) could lead him to being a very attractive trade target this season.
RP: Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers: Has managed to grab 19 saves on a poor Milwaukee team but also has allowed only 28 base runners in 32 innings. The “K” of his old nickname “K-Rod” isn’t quite there this season, 37 strikeouts (middle of the pack when it comes to NL relief pitchers) but he’s having a successful season none the less.
OF Bench: Ben Revere: He doesn’t have enough innings to qualify at one position, but has enough innings to make the roster as he’s played all three outfield slots for the Phillies. He’s a great defensive replacement, a great guy to put on the base-paths if you need speed, or a great rally starter as a pinch hitter. He has a .297 AVG this season with 21 stolen bases and a .337 OBP.
INF Bench: Yangervis Solarte, Padres: I admit it; I’m reaching here on this selection but the Padres need a rep and there really isn’t much to be happy about for that San Diego squad. But Solarte brings defensive versatility and has turned a positive WAR on offense both this season and last. But yeah, it’s a stretch.
Lineups:
AL: NL:
Brett Gardner Joe Panik
Jason Kipnis Starling Marte
Mike Trout Paul Goldschmidt
Josh Donaldson Bryce Harper
Xander Bogaerts Todd Frazier
J. D. Martinez Nick Hundley
Stephen Vogt Jhonny Peralta
Jose Abreu Cameron Maybin
Pitchers slot. The ASG is in Cincinnati this year so the game gets played by NL rules and NL has home field.
Note: Only five players on my roster are repeats, three of them are on it for their third time, and Trout is my only 4-timer. I think that much turnover is great for the game of baseball as a whole.
Results as simulated on MLB The Show 15 in a best of 3 series with rosters updated:
Game One NL 5-1. Greinke threw a complete game (run was unearned, error on Maybin) and the offensive MVP was Goldschmidt with a 2-3 game, 3 RBIs, HR, and a walk. Harper also hit a HR. Overall, the NL hit Keuchel often with 11 total hits in his 7 IP.
Game Two: AL 4-1. Archer allowed one run (Frazier HR) and three hits in 7 IP and Perkins got the save. DeGrom only allowed two earned runs in 7 IP but an error by Peralta added two more in the 7th. Vogt had a two run HR and the two runs scored after a 2-out ball was hit to Peralta who booted it, allowing Donaldson and Trout to be safe and Bogaerts had a two-run double.
Game Three: NL 3-2 in 10. Both pitchers threw 8 innings of two run ball, but Perkins got hit in the 10th. With one out, Revere came up to bat and singled, stole second, and, with two outs, was hit in by Marte after Panik struck out. Two runs in the first came from a two run HR by Goldschmidt for the NL and the AL had two solo shots (Trout and Martinez) in the second and seventh respectively.
Series MVP: Goldschmidt (6-10, three walks, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs)
Series LVP: Abreu (0-11)
Player who never got to do anything: Solarte
Baseball Predictions
Again, I apologize to my readers for not doing my annual MLB preview series. However, I couldn’t go without letting my predictions go down on paper for this upcoming MLB season. Starting with my playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
DS: Pirates over Nationals, Marlins over Dodgers
White Sox over Orioles, Blue Jays over Mariners
CS: Pirates over Marlins
White Sox over Blue Jays
WS: Pirates over White Sox
There is a lot of hype on the Pirates this year and I understand why, as a Pittsburgh native. Small market teams don’t have a large window of opportunity and the Pirates have been pushing the window open for years. The White Sox have turned around their franchise with some shrewd moves this offseason and have a solid roster. Both teams have the ability to be very active at the deadline should issues arise during the season and the fan base to support the team through a long run.
NL MVP: McCutchen – Yes, it’s a bit of a homer pick, but his stats haven’t declined over the past two seasons, the roster overall is better for him, and he’s well known throughout baseball.
NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto – Every year he seems to be close to getting it but either an injury or Kershaw step in the way. Cueto will still be the shining star on what could be a very poor Reds season, might even be moved to a contender come the deadline.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson – He was a candidate last season with the A’s and now calls Toronto his home. A leader on the team that pushes the Blue Jays to playoff relevance could be exactly what he needs to win the award. Akin to McCutchen when he won his.
AL CY Young: Chris Sale – He’s an ace for Chicago and is going to have a bit of a late start to the season. However, as Kershaw showed last season, a dominate season can still win the award, even if you miss the first month. The leader of this team will lead them to a World Series appearance.
ROY: I don’ bother doing this pre-season because of mid-season call ups and expectations that don’t last. Ask me again come the All-Star break.
Overall Divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
All-Star Week: One-Star Roster
As the All-Star Game comes tomorrow and the HR Derby tonight, I though this was a perfect time to do what is my favorite post that I do every year: the One-Star Roster.
It isn’t what you think it is. Every year, right before the All-Star Game, I make my own All-Star roster, but I use different rules. Each roster has 15 players and each team has one representative. So not only am I looking for the best player from each team, but also for the best player from each position. There is the regular starting eight, three SP, two RP, and two bench players, except in the AL where they have one bench player and one DH. Then, I make the rosters and simulate the games on MLB The Show in a best-of-three series.
Qualifications: 200 ABs and 500 innings played at the position or 75/30 IP (SP/RP) and must not be on the DL at the time of which I write this (Sorry Tanaka) and not traded before I wrote this (Sorry Samardzija), and not suspended for a drug-related incident in the past season (Sorry Cruz).
Let’s start with the NL:
C: Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers: Molina is on the DL and Lucroy is hitting .215 with nine HRs and 44 RBIs. On defense, he’s at 1 WAR, 26 CS%, and only three passed balls.
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: D-Backs need a rep and no one on that team, or on most teams, have a better first baseman. He leads the league in doubles, has 16 HRs, and has been able to scratch out 61 RBIs on a poor D-Backs team.
2B: Daniel Murphy, Mets: The Mets are hot right now and that’s lead by Murphy, the team leader in AVG (.294), SB (11), and hits (113). One of the better second basemen in the league and he gets the chance to play here.
3B: Anthony Rendon, Nationals: He’s been a catalyst for the Nationals, leading the team with a .287 AVG, stepping into the 3rd base slot when Zimmerman became ineffective and then injured, and is in a three-way tie for the most RBIs (53) by a third basemen in the national league.
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: Not only is he the best player on the Rockies, but he’s one of the best player in the NL. He’s having a healthy season and is turning that into a powerhouse season with 21 HRs, .345 AVG, and 52 RBIs.
LF: Seth Smith: Padres need a rep but Smith is turning into one of the better players in LF. His .283 AVG is the best among NL LF, his 10 HRs leads the team, and he’s walked 42 times, only Matt Holiday has more among NL LF.
CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: He’s one of the best players in the game, one of the best players at his position, and the cornerstone of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The reigning MVP is turning in another MVP-caliber season.
RF: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: He has 21 HRs and 63 RBIs on a Marlins team that wins mainly by pitching and key hits by Stanton and McGehee. He’d be the number three or four hitter on every single team in the league.
SP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 1.78 ERA, 126 Ks, and the best pitcher in the NL right now. Starts this series for the NL as he deserves.
SP: Johnny Cueto, Reds: 2.13 ERA, 146 Ks, and an 0.89 WHIP. He’s healthy and on pace to throw the most innings in his career, he can survive a handful more.
SP: Adam Wainright, Cardinals: 1.83 ERA, 115 Ks, and hasn’t allowed more the two earned runs since the 30th of May. He’s the number three starter. Scary thought…
RP: Creag Kimbrel, Braves: Has four blown saves and hasn’t allowed a run in eight games, a hit in five games, and a walk in six games. Lights out closer and is still the best one in the NL.
RP: Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies: Having a resurgent season and making his appearances count. 22 saves on a Phillies team that has won 42 games.
Bench: Hunter Pence, Giants: Pence is having a strong season and is leading the team in AVG and 2nd in HRs. In a year where Posey is having a down season, he’s stepping up and keeping the Giants in a playoff hunt. (Starting DH)
Bench: Starlin Castro, Cubs: Having a solid bounce-back season for the Cubs after two seasons where he was doing nothing but rolling down hill. Team leader in AVG, RBIs, and hits.
Now for the AL:
C: Kurt Suzuki, Twins: A great offensive season for the catcher, having a .309 AVG with 18 doubles, both leading all AL catchers.
1B: Jose Abreu, White Sox: His 29 HRs are the most among first basemen in the league and he’s going toe-to-toe with the best first basemen in the league in Cabrera, Pujols, and Encarnacion.
2B: Jose Altuve, Astros: Continuing to hit for a high average at .335, more at-bats, hits, and doubles than Cano does, and is getting better players around him in Houston.
3B: Adrian Beltre, Rangers: The Rangers might be going downhill but Beltre isn’t. 13 HR, .337 AVG, 51 RBIs, and 104 hits on the season as his career in Arlington continues to be hot.
SS: Alcides Escobar, Royals: Quietly having a strong season in KC as the Royals are hot and cold throughout the season. .283 AVG and solid defense gives him a start.
LF: Michael Brantley, Indians: He’s a very balanced hitter, batting a .332 AVG with 13 HRs and he’s got a great eye as he’s struck out only 32 times in 351 At-Bats.
CF: Mike Trout, Angels: .310 AVG, 22 HRs, 10 SB without being caught, still one of the best players in the league.
RF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Having another strong season and still a power threat, he’s keeping the Blue Jays in the position for the AL East crown.
DH: Brandon Moss, Athletics: .268 AVG, 21 HRs, and 66 RBIs is a better stat line the David Ortiz and only has a worse AVG than Victor Martinez of all DHs in the league.
SP: Felix Hernandez, Mariners: Ace of the AL as he pitches to the tune of a 2.12 ERA with 154 Ks. 0.90 WHIP and he hasn’t allowd more than two earned runs since the 12th of May.
SP: David Price, Rays: The struggling Rays aren’t the fault of Price who has thrown more than 6 and a third innings since the eighth of May and has thrown seven or more innings since the 18th of May.
SP: Max Scherzer, Tigers: Ever since his rough start against KC on June 17th, he’s allowed only five earned runs in four starts, and has pitched less than six full innings only twice this entire season.
RP: Dellin Betances, Yankees: Allowed only nine earned runs in 55.1 IP this season. Oh and only 23 hits this season, 16 walks, for a total of 39 baserunners.
RP: Koji Uehara, Red Sox: Just as dominate this season as he was last, 33 baserunners (6 walks, 27 hits), eight earned runs, and 57 Ks. His 18 saves on the season due to a struggling Red Sox team.
Bench: Adam Jones, Orioles: Worthy of being a starter with a .301 AVG and 16 HRs along with superb defense in the outfield slides into the bench role.
Lineups:
NL: AL:
1) Murphy Trout
2) McCutchen Altuve
3) Tulowitzki Beltre
4) Stanton Abreu
5) Goldschmidt Moss
6) Lucroy Bautista
7) Pence Suzuki
8) Rendon Brantley
9) Smith Escobar
Results:
Game 1: 1-0 Win NL: Stanton with a solo HR off of Betances in the 9th, Kershaw with a CG, Hernandez 8 IP
Game 2: 3-1 win NL: Abreu HR off of Cueto in the 4th, McCutchen 2 run double in the 6th off Price, Tulowitzki solo HR in the 8th off of Price. Price: CG Cueto 8 IP, Kimbrel save
Game 3: Not played
MLB 2014 Preview: N.L. Central
The season has technically started with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Australia, but the rest of the teams are still getting ready and are trying to set their rosters for the 2014 season. Now it is time for me to break down each division. I will break it down, going worst to first in my analysis and, after doing all the divisions, I’ll do an award and postseason one. Starting off with the N.L. Central…
1st: The St. Louis Cardinals lost a great player to FA in Carlos Beltran, who might be the best hitter in postseason history, but have the depth to absorb it. Trading Freese for the speedy Bourjos to leadoff, play excellent defense, and make Jay an excellent back up for all three corner spots while also freeing up a spot for Matt Carpenter to play every day at 3rd. Also, Craig moves back into the outfield, Adams plays first. The rotation is a little wobbly with Garcia starting on the DL this season as well hoping for continued success from Lynn, Wacha, and Miller, a trio of great young players, but that isn’t an issue as I expect them all to do well. The bullpen is still a weakness for the Cardinals so that’s a mid-season trade target. Finally, the Cardinals are looking to see what Peralta does coming back from PED suspension as well as what Wong does in a full season but the issues with the Cardinals are minor and they are still the best team in the majors. Record at best: 113-49 Record at worst: 87-75 Record prediction: 102-60
2nd: The Pittsburgh Pirates had a great season last year and took the Cardinals to five games in the NLDS and proceeded to make only minor signings to the roster. That being said, I think they’re just as good this season as they were last. The defense will be just as strong as it’s the same formula and the same players for the most part, the rotation looks to be just as solid as last season, even with Volquez in the fifth slot. Last season, the Pirates rotation went through a lot more flux with injuries and players not performing well (Jonathan Sanchez) and still won 94 games. The depth is there at every spot of the field, the minors have plenty of reinforcements and/or trade bait. The offense is a question mark as some players are going to have to prove something (G. Sanchez, Mercer, Tabata, Snider) and Walker needs to have a full bounce back and healthy season but, if everything goes right, this team can be in it up to the end. Record at best: 99-63 Record at worst: 85-77 Record prediction: 94-68 1st Wild Card slot
3rd: The Cincinnati Reds will take a step back in 2014 due to the loss of Choo and the injury to Chapman. The rotation is still stacked even with the loss of Arroyo, the offense is still strong, and the bullpen, which will be taxed to start, has the strength to pull through. Brandon Phillips is a question mark however as he has been on the decline for the past few seasons and Ludwick hit just 3 home runs last season and he needs a bounce back as well. Of all three teams in the NL Central that will contend deep into the season, I see the Reds as the most likely to make a large deadline move, but I don’t think the issues will be quite enough to throw them back into lower tier teams. Record at best: 95-67 Record at worst: 79-83 Record prediction: 90-72
4th: The Brewers biggest offseason move looked like last season’s move; to bring in a pitcher close to the last moment who was left on the market and wasn’t seen as an ace. The Brewers now have Gallardo (looking for a bounce back), Garza (looking for a bounce back) and Lohse (the Cardinal’s castoff who is…isn’t looking for a bounce back but for consistency). Braun is a spotlight with his return from PED suspension, Weeks and Ramirez have power but that’s about it, and Segura might start the season on the DL. The bullpen is better than last year but that’s not saying much about the team. This is a .500 team at best and isn’t a team to strike fear in anyone but they will win a handful of games this season. Record at best: 81-81 Record at worst: 70-92 Record prediction: 74-88
5th: The Chicago Cubs keep waiting for someone to rise up but the players still aren’t there yet. Castro took another step back, Rizzo hasn’t lived up to potential, Murphy has been traded to the Rangers, and the rest of the players are just placeholders until the prospects make it to the majors which basically makes this season a wash. But, aside from the offensive and defensive issues, the Cubs rotation is not good. Samardzija is the ace but his second half of the season he was a 4.72 ERA and he allowed a combined 27 homeruns in 2013. Jackson is a back-end pitcher who is being paid and forced into a top three rotation spot due to the lack of other pitchers, and Travis Wood is the potential “current ace” as the Cubs don’t really have any pitching prospects close to the majors, or any at all for that matter. The bullpen isn’t much better than the rotation is the nicest way I can put that. The Cubs are still behind the curve and the fans should brace for another rough season. Record at best: 73-89 Record at worst: 59-103 Record prediction: 65-97
Cats In The Bleachers 
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