Being a Pirates Fan at the Trade Deadline can be VERY Frustrating
Most fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates had to endure some, if not all, of the historic losing streak and then were rewarded with three consecutive playoff appearances. During each of those playoff seasons came a trade deadline. It was a bit of uncharted territory as the Pirates were buyers, not sellers; you would think that this new territory would bring joy and excitement. Yet, all it brought was discontent and complaining. And as a Pirates fan, it gets really annoying to hear people cry out “the Pirates are cheap!” no matter what actions are taken.
Two seasons ago, it was complaining that the Pirates did not go out and acquire David Price. Most reports, however, showed that the Pirates organization tried its best to get him, but the Rays wanted more MLB ready talent. Last season, it was moans and cries about how the only starting pitcher that was acquired was J.A. Happ and that it was an immense overpay. And then those same people bemoaned when the Pirates did not resign him in the off-season. At the end of the day, it feels like the Pirates could win the World Series and some people would still find a way to call out the organization and those within it for being cheap and not doing more.
This trade deadline was no different. All sorts of people had a dream player or two they would have liked the Pirates to acquire, and I was no different. At the end of the day, however, all we are are fans; we are people who read reports, watch games, have opinions, have one view out of 30 available, and do not know what happens behind closed doors.
Many fans are upset that Ivan Nova was the biggest piece for the Pirates to acquire. Nova, however, was the only one really available for the Pirates. Many people, myself included, wanted to see LHP Matt Moore come to Pittsburgh from Tampa Bay, but he ended up going to San Francisco. They out-bid Pittsburgh, plain and simple, because Tampa wanted at least two of the Pirates top-five prospects. That would have meant that two out of Josh Bell, Tyler Glassnow, Austin Meadows, Jameson Taillon, and Kevin Newman would have been sent to Tampa. I get that pitchers with extended team control are valuable, but Moore has not had the most stellar of seasons and is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (244-151 FB/GB ratio this season, 944/623 ratio in his career). The current Pirates brass does not often target flyball pitchers, but look for players who induce ground-ball outs, so the chances of using two of the top five team prospects to get him was pretty much out of the question.
Other than Moore, not too many pitchers with extended team control were on the market, and that is what Pittsburgh was looking for. Not one year rentals like Rich Hill (who has a plethora of concerns on his own, but that is a different conversation). So the Pirates acquired Nova for very little: two players to be named later. What Nova will do with the Pirates is unknown, but he gets ground ball outs (175 this year, 1209 in his career), is having the best K/BB ratio oh his career (3/1), and leaving the home run happy Yankee stadium and getting an outfield that is far better defensively than that in New York might help his other numbers come down a little.
Many people were also upset that the Pirates traded away Mark Melancon. The Pirates wanted to get something out him and the market was high for top-tier closers. Pittsburgh was able to get five more years for a player who could easily be the closer of the future, if not the closer for next year, in Felipe Rivero. I am high on him, love the team control through 2021, and also love the fact that the Pirates do not have to risk giving Melancon a qualifying offer that could be around 17 million for this off-season. The closer position is one of the most fickle in baseball and while it is nice to have consistency, one never knows when a reliever might up-and-implode one season, thus making it hard to justify using about 20% of a teams payroll on one relief pitcher.
Then there is the fact that the Pirates were able to trade Jon Niese. While I have never been the biggest fan of Antonio Bastardo, he did pitch well enough with the Pirates in 2015 and, as I said before, relief pitchers can be very fickle. So having Bastardo for next season and giving him a chance to pitch with the team that he had a 2.98 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, in 57.1 innings while limiting batters to a .188/.287/.284 batting line is worth the risk. He will slide into the 6th/7th inning role nicely and it also eliminates the need to find a second lefty reliever this off-season. Also, let us not forget that Niese was not worth peanuts. So the fact that the Pirates were able to get anything for him is pretty good.
And then there is the highly contested Francisco Lirano trade with the Blue Jays. I will not sugarcoat it for it does not need to be sugarcoated. This was partly a salary dump trade. Liriano is not worth that 13.7 million he is due next year. He leads the majors in walks, he is set to have his worst ERA and most losses since 09, set for a career worst in WHIP and WAR, and his worst K/BB ratio since 11. And a move to the Rogers Centere does not bode well as it is a smaller ballpark. The Pirates had to give up something to have the Blue Jays take on that burden, enter Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire, as well as need to acquire something of some value in return, so enter Drew Hutchison. He is not the most impressive of pitchers, and his fly ball/ ground ball ratio is a bit alarming for the Pirates, but he has a chance to adapt to the Pirates way of pitching in AAA for a bit before getting a chance to start in September and next year. And yes, keeping him in AAA does help lower his cost and give an extra year of control, but keeping costs low was part of the framework of this deal.
Now for a look at the two prospects. Honestly, I do wonder how many people knew about Ramirez before yesterday. Ramirez is a high average, decent OBP, low power outfield bat with a cannon arm. That is fantastic to have, if your team does not already have two All-Star caliber outfielders signed through 2020 plus, a fan-favorite center-fielder, and a mega prospect waiting in the wings. Ramirez was expendable, simple as that. It would have been nice to see him part of a better return, but he was not going to have much of a future in Pittsburgh. And his bat, honestly, may not develop into a major league bat given his low walk rate and lack of power.
McGuire has defense that is very well regarded around the league. His bat, however, is looking to be below average. He has not hit above .270 in any season above rookie ball, sans one short stint in the Arizona Fall League, and his defense could possibly falter as he has committed a total of 20 errors in the last two seasons combined. With Francisco Cervelli signed for three more seasons and Elias Diaz set to line up as the next back-up an then starter for the Pirates, McGuire too was starting to look a little blocked.
At the end, the best way to know more about this trade is to see how the Pirates will use the extra 14 million, give-take, that has been opened up for the off-season. Salary raises are coming in bunches from arbitration (Gerrit Cole hits that for the first time this season) and contracts already signed are going to be big next year and the Pirates might look to extend Cole or another young pitcher, akin to what the Rays have done in the past. Also, people need to give Hutchison a chance to perform and see why the Pirates went out of the way to acquire him.
I am not trying to say that these were the best moves, but what I am trying to say is stop calling the Pirates and the front office cheap! First, you cannot fault the Pirates for teams not willing to play ball with them, see the fact that the Pirates called the Braves about a chance to acquire Julio Tehran and were told no off the bat. Second, stop complaining about everything the Pirates do. It is super easy to spend someone else’s resources, be they prospects or cash, and think both short and long term with the moves. And if the Pirates are cheap, what does that make the Padres? The Padres front office traded away about every single large contract on its books this season. Were the Indians cheap when that franchise tried to absolve itself of a few payroll eyesores last season when trading Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher? How about the Astros? Are they cheap and giving up on the playoffs because they traded away a few major league players in the middle of a playoff hunt? Are the Tigers cheap because they did not make any moves? The Cardinals only acquired Zach Duke so do they not care and are they cheap? I can go on. And third, stop being so obsessed with the big names and the flashy moves. Rarely do moves like that actually pan out for a team. Price has yet to win a World Series and he has been traded twice. Carlos Beltran has been all around the league and has yet to win a World Series.
I know some people who would not of been happy unless the Pirates had traded John Jaso, Jeff Locke, and Matt Joyce for Stephen Strasburg and having the Nationals still pay all his contract. Some people really need to wake up and smell the freshly cut outfield grass. The MLB does not work the same way your video game does. I had heard some ludicrous trade ideas before this deadline, including but not limited to: “Jaso, Joyce, and Eric Fryer to the Rays for Moore” and “David Freese, Joyce, Sean Rodriguez and a prospect to the Indians for Carlos Carrasco and Tervor Bauer.” I get it, people are frustrated with losing the last two Wild Card games, being stuck in a division where the Cubs and Cardinals can out spend the Pirates, no salary cap, and watching some fan-favorite players leave and/or struggle. But sometimes it takes more than one or two months to see the whole picture, sometimes you cannot see the forest through the trees, and as the Penguins fans learned from watching the Pens hoist the Stanley Cup this past June, sometimes the unpopular moves are the right moves to make.
Teeing Off: Plenty of NFL Contracts
My oh my, there has been a flurry of NFL news today and the ability to sign free agents does not come until tomorrow at 4 pm ET!!! Which means that there is plenty of time for a deal to fall through (remember the Eagles last year with Frank Gore?) and create yet a flurry of even more news. A quick look at some of the bigger moves in the last 24 hours:
Eagles looking for a new identity: Trading DeMarco Murray to the Titans and Kiko Alonso with Byron Maxwell to the Dolphins is a show that the Eagles are slowly removing the Chip Kelly fingerprints off of their roster. I doubt that every player obtained under his watch will leave (they did keep Sam Bradford after all), but the Eagles want to go back to their roots with the Andy Reid style offense. It is the same one that Doug Pederson ran and was successful with in Kansas City. Murray might have a solid turnaround with the Titans given the dual-threat abilities of Marcus Mariota and with TEN having the first overall pick to repair the offensive line. The Dolphins… I have no idea. They are making a lot of questionable moves, just as they did last season, that do not seem to make much sense on paper. It did not work out last season, but maybe it will this time…? Doubtful.
Big money big money big money: Come on Wheel!!! Wheel-Of-Fortune anyone? No? Well, Malik Jackson (six years, 90M is the reported deal) and Kelechi Osemele (five years, 60M reported deal) were certainly thinking about big money and they got it from the Jaguars and Raiders respectively. It is always dangerous to throw that kind of money around, especially for a player like Jackson who had a lot of big time players around him, but the beauty of it for the Jaguars and Raiders is that they have a TON of cap space. That large amount of cap space allows them to front load a contract and reduces the long term risk with guarantees and dead money. A large first year cap hit makes it easy to cut the player later if he is a dud or allows the Raiders to sign more players in the following years to build around them. And both teams did flash a lot of signs of life last season and could be under-the-radar playoff picks for 2016.
Re-signing: Richie Incognito resigned with the Bills at three years, 15.75M which is good for him and great for Ramon Foster. If he does not try the free agent route, I will be shocked. I am sure that he and his agent have had many talks today after seeing Incognito and Osemele get their contracts. Bills also resigned their tackle, Cordy Glenn. The Giants are taking a chance on Jason Pierre-Paul with a one year deal that can reach up to 10.5M. I am sure it is a very incentive heavy contract, but JPP wants to see if he can revalue himself, he reportedly left “more money” on the table but it obviously was lower than what he wished, and the Giants look to be willing to give him the chance. The Chiefs and Seahawks both issued three year deals to a defensive player that they did not wish to lose. Chiefs are rolling the dice on age with Tamba Hali and slid him a three year deal to keep him in KC while the Seahawks locked up the nine veteran DT Ahtyba Rubin his own three year deal.
Head-scratcher: TE Dwayne Allen got four years and almost 30 million dollars to stay with the Colts. I am glad the Steelers never had the chance to look at him on the market if that is what he wished to make given his career 91 receptions for 1,045 yards (albeit the 11.5 YPC is not too shabby). He just does not inspire (16 receptions last season and an injury) and this deal does not make a lot of sense to me. Then again, Jim Irsay has not made many moves recently that made a lot of sense to me.
Steelers: Pittsburgh kept some players in house by giving Darrius Heyward-Bey, William Gay, and Robert Golden all three year deals at a very low rate. There are still some questions about other pending free agents (Foster, Steve McLendon, and Kelvin Beachum (and he is probably looking with considerable interest at the large offensive line contracts so far)) and there are still some starting spots available in Pittsburgh. It will be interesting to see what is done in free agency vs. what is done through the draft for PIT. I would still love to see Zach Brown and Haloti Ngata come to PIT.
Others: Texans have interest in RB Lamar Miller and QB Brock Osweiler, Packers have interest in RB Matt Forte, Raiders have interest in RB Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, and the Eagles have RB Ryan Matthews available for trade. Basically, if you’re looking for a RB, now is the time.
Calvin Johnson and Peyton Manning are both officially retired and will be missed from the NFL. Johnson was glorious to watch since his rookie year (I wanted him to go to Tampa Bay in that drat *sad face*) and Manning will take some getting used to as he was in the league for most of my life and the only time I did not watch him was when he was out for a season due to his neck injury. 2016 has been a big year for retirements.
Personal note: Typing from my back porch in 65 degree weather with Queen playing and drinking an A&W root beer? Yes please!! Summer is almost here and I could not be happier about that fact.
Teeing Off: Top News from the Day
A lot happened today in the world of sports. The Blue Jays and Rockies got together for a trade-deadline blockbuster, the Royals got Ben Zobrist from the Athletics, and the Penguins (the NHL not wanting to be forgotten in the news) traded Brandon Sutter to the Canucks. The NFL got involved by announcing news on two suspensions: the one for Le’Veon Bell and for Tom Brady. Starting first with the trades:
Blue Jays and Rockies: The Blue Jays acquired shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies for shortstop Jose Reyes and three minor league pitchers: Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco. In the short-term, I like this trade for Toronto. Tulo is an upgrade over Reyes and helps the Blue Jays strong offense get better. Toronto was also looking to add a reliever and while they may not be done with that aspect of the team, and are still in the market for a starter, Hawkins is a good person to start with. Even if the Blue Jays miss the playoffs this season, Toronto still has most of the team under contract for next season. Of the upcoming four free agents for Toronto, only SP Marco Estrada is the biggest loss. None of the offensive players are scheduled to hit free agency and, when including dead money and options that I believe will be declined (Dickey and Izturis), the Blue Jays have about 82.1 million dollars coming off of the books for the off-season. Sure, some of that will be used in arbitration raises, but Toronto could use that money to peruse a top starter (Price, Cueto, Kazmir, etc…). Toronto did this with a mind on the future and the present.
Colorado also gets a bonus from this, but more long term. When all is said and done, the Rockies shed about 50 million in payroll and added three prospects who add pitching depth, and promise, to an organization that has been devoid of such for years. That being said, Colorado is often where pitching prospects go to die. It’s a hard organization, and a hard ballpark, to throw in. And, apparently, Tulo isn’t happy with the trade or how it was handled (in the past, the owner said that Tulo wasn’t going to be moved this season and Tulo himself said he wanted to stay in Colorado) which might turn off future free agents from joining the Rockies. But money talks and Colorado has more of it now to use to add a younger position player (Heyward, maybe Cespedes?) and/or a veteran pitcher to help the coming influx of younger talent. But if the money isn’t well managed and the pitchers follow a long line of young pitchers who struggle at Coors Field, it’ll be a hard one for Colorado; especially if the Blue Jays win a World Series with Tulo in tow.
Royals and Athletics: Kansas City is on a tear right now when it comes to trades. They added Cueto and Zobrist to strengthen this team now without worrying about next season. The Royals know their window is small and don’t have many shots at a World Series so they’re going all in for this one. I liked the Cueto trade for the Royals and I like the Zobrist one as well. Zobrist can play the outfield until Alex Gordon returns and then second and outfield once Gordon does return, spelling Gordon when he needs a day off and effectively replace Infante at second. Oakland got a nice return in Sean Manaea who was Kansas City’s third rated prospect but did struggle this season when he was promoted to AA. Aaron Brooks has bounced between the majors and AAA this season and looks to be another bullpen piece for the Athletics. A throw in as Manaea was the headliner in that deal.
Brandon Sutter: Sutter and a 2016 third round pick left Pittsburgh to go to Vancouver for a 2016 second round pick, center Nick Bonino and defensemen Adam Clendening. Sutter had a cap hit of 3.3 million this season and, to replace him on the third line, the Penguins signed center Eric Fehr, who will have a cap hit of about 2 million this season. The stats are similar as well: Sutter had 21 goals, 12 assists, a plus/minus rating of six, and 14 penalty minutes last season. Fehr had 19 goals, 14 assists, a plus/minus of six, and 20 penalty minutes. Career wise, shooting percentages are quite even as well with Sutter at 10.3% and Fehr at 10.1%.
Le’Veon Bell Suspension: The Steelers running back had his suspension reduced today from three games to two. It happened quietly and easily, and was expected. Two games is the usual penalty for this type of incident and while I personally believe it should be more (he broke a law; not just in the NFL but in real life. And drove while doing it. And didn’t know it was illegal. That might be the worst part…) it falls within the precedent for the league. The Steelers will miss him as they open the season at New England and vs. San Francisco, two teams that might be trouble if the running game is non-existent for the Steelers, as the Ravens playoff match-up was.
DeflateGate: The saga continues: If you read my earlier DeflateGate series when the penalties and suspension were first handed down, you would know that I wasn’t a fan of such an abuse of power by Goodell, especially since he decided to rule over the appeal hearing. Well the ruling came in today and the suspension hasn’t been reduced one bit. Goodell is stating that the fact that Brady “destroyed his cell phone” on the day he met with Ted Wells to interview for his very… loose report. As expected, the NFLPA is going to appeal this in federal court, as they did with Adrian Peterson’s suspension (which they won) and the NFL is suing to keep the suspension active, even if this should go to a federal court during the NFL season. The drama is piling on with this saga and I am going to do a full article on this next. But for now, be content in knowing that I still think Goodell and this case is a sham and an abuse of power. And I also find it… ya know what? I’m saving it for my next article.
Personal Notes: Marvel’s Ant-Man was a great movie. Go see it. It’s not as funny as Guardians of the Galaxy and not as action-packed or serious as Avengers: Age of Ultron, but it was really good and really has me excited for the next round of Marvel movies coming up in the future. Excluding Fantastic Four. I still hold some trepidation about that movie.
Also, Billy Joel’s Glass Houses album is very good classic rock. Just saying.
Playing Armchair GM: Looking at Relief Pitchers who fit with the Pirates
It now appears that Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez has been taken off of the trade block and the Pirates momentary search for a new first baseman has ended, it’s time to look at the trade deadline from a different angle. The Pirates offense, when all is said and done, is fine. Gregory Polanco is getting hot as… well late July usually does here in southwest PA. Aramis Ramirez holds down the hot-corner until Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer return to bolster the line-up which will, in turn, bolster the bench. Getting two regular players back at full health, and fully rested, in the middle of August is the same, if not better, than making a deadline for a new offensive bat. Not saying that first base, and the infield as a whole, isn’t something the Pirates shouldn’t address in the future, as in the off-season, but it isn’t something that needs to be addressed right here, right now. No, the Pirates needs lie in pitching.
Relief pitching should be the Pirates number one target right now. The bullpen is flexible in that there is an ability to move players. First, injured Rob Scahill (26 IP, 27 hits, 12 walks, 22 Ks, 12 runs allowed, six earned and two home runs) can be optioned to AAA upon return from his rehab and rookie Deolis Guerra (14.1 IP, 15 hits, two walks, 13 Ks, five earned runs allowed, three home runs) can also be optioned back if needed. Two other members of the bullpen, Vance Worley (69 IP (eight starts) 75 hits, 19 walks, 47 Ks, 33 runs allowed, 29 earned and six home runs) and Arquimedes Caminero (44.1 IP, 41 hits, 17 walks, 47 Ks, 23 runs allowed, 22 earned and six home runs) don’t have any options left but still have three and five years of team control left, respectively. Neither is pitching particularly amazingly and could have a high chance of passing through waivers if DFA’d. Also, the team control factors could make them minor throw-in pieces to a trade. Finally, Antonia Bastardo (30 IP, 28 hits, 13 walks, 28 Ks, 13 earned runs and four home runs) was a poor replacement of LHP Justin Wilson (sent to the Yankees for Francisco Cervelli) and is a free agent after this season. So if he were to be removed from the active roster, it wouldn’t be the worst of choices.
So, with that flexibility, the Pirates can go and obtain another reliever without really losing anything, especially if Pittsburgh capitalizes on the two players with options remaining. The Pirates don’t need just any reliever, though, they need an arm that is reliable in a high leverage situation to help take some pressure off of Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, and Mark Melancon (combined 142 appearances and 134.2 innings pitched but only 27 earned runs for a group ERA of 1.87) as the Pirates go down the stretch. Ideally, the Pirates would also like to get someone with control to avoid what the Orioles went through last trade deadline; acquiring a big name reliever in Andrew Miller, give up a top prospect, not be able to go far with him in the postseason, and watch him leave via free agency. With all that said, I’ve narrowed it to four names for the Pirates, in descending order of ideal want: Will Smith of the Brewers, Jake McGee of the Rays, Joaquin Benoit of the Padres, and Joakim Soria of the Tigers.
Will Smith: Came over to the Brewers from the Royals in the 2013-14 off-season as a trade and is a lefty. He’s making 512.5 thousand dollars this season and has three years of arbitration yet to come. He fits the Pirates need and mold perfectly and Pittsburgh has already traded with the Brewers so they have an idea of who Milwaukee likes. It cost Milwaukee Nori Aoki to acquire him at the time so that’s a base-level estimate of what it may cost to get Smith. Along with his youth, cost control and excellent numbers this season (36 IP, 26 hits, 14 walks, 50 Ks, 10 runs, seven earned, and one home run) it might cost the Pirates a top-20 prospect.
If so, deal from a position of strength, the outfield. The major league outfield is set till at least 2019 (McCutchen will be a free agent com 2019) and the Pirates have plenty of players who can play the outfield in the system. In AAA the Pirates have Keon Broxton and Willy Garcia to dangle, Stetson Allie, Barrett Barnes, Josh Bell and Mel Rojas Jr. in AA, and Austin Medows and Harold Ramirez in high-A ball. Of that list, five of them are on the Pirates pre-season top-20 prospect list. Someone such as Ramirez might be enough to get the deal done by himself or a package of Garcia and a lower-tier pitcher.
Jake McGee: He’s also a lefty but only has one more year of team control left as he enters his third, and final, year in arbitration after this season. His numbers are just as good as Smith’s (23.2 IP 14 hits, three walks, 32 Ks, four runs, three earned, one home run) but he missed a little time due to injury this season as he started the season on the DL due to elbow surgery. However, he’s come back and is striking out almost double the amount of base runners he allows. Tampa Bay is 7.5 games back of the Yankees, 4 for the Wild Card, and may not decide to sell but if they do, they don’t mind taking on high level or lower level prospects. Again, a one-for-one of Ramirez might get the job done in this case or Tampa might take a package of lower-tier but high-ceiling prospects.
Joaquin Benoit: He’s a right hander and making a little more money than the other two options, but he comes with an extra aspect of control: an 8 million dollar option for next season with a 1.5M buyout. He’s making 8M this season, about half of that left at this point in the season, so he’s not a terribly expensive addition but he also isn’t as young as the other two pitchers as he just turned 38 yesterday. He’s spent most of his career as a set-up man so he’s not stranger to the 7th or 8th inning role. Any deal with the Padres would more than likely include a little bit of cash coming from San Diego (say, 1.5M this season and 1.5 next to either cover the buyout or the early part of his contract) and might be a little cheaper than the other two even with his stats (43.2 IP, 21 hits, 16 walks, 39 Ks, 11 earned runs, five home runs) due to his age and extra money. Combination of Allie and Barnes would be an interesting deal to make here.
Joakim Soria: He’s last on the list because he’s a free agent after this season, he’s been a closer this season and in the past, Detroit still doesn’t know if they’re sellers or buyers, and his numbers aren’t as good as the others (40 IP, 32 hits, 11 walks, 34 Ks, 13 earned runs, 8 home runs). He might be the cheapest option in terms of prospects here, but it’s hard to trade for a current closer and ask him to not fill that role. Sure, he’s been a set-up man in the past with Texas and Detroit but he’s been a closer for seven of his nine seasons. I wouldn’t trade any top prospects for him, but dangle a few others at Detroit like Broxton or Rojas Jr.
The Tale of Three Cities: A Look at the Minnesota Twins’ Playoff Chances
Three teams have risen above my expectations and have put themselves in the midst of a playoff hunt for the second half of the MLB season. The Astros, the Twins, and the Mets are all winning games that I didn’t think that they would. I did believe during the pre-season that the Astros and the Mets were trending upwards right now with their minor league talent and the strong teams that are being built. The Twins, however, I had less hope for. I mentioned in my “Mid-Season Review” piece that, of all those teams, the Twins would be the only one to make the playoffs. Here is a deeper look into the teams and why I believe the team will go where it does. Finally, the Minnesota Twins.
I really didn’t think much of the Twins coming into the season. I thought that the rotation was poor and even poorer when the team lost Ervin Santana to a PED suspension. That being said, I still have them grabbing hold of the last Wild Card spot in the AL. Here’s why:
The Twins are an average team on getting on base (15th in the league in AVG, 21st in OBP) but, once the guys get on base, they seem to have a knack for hitting them in (9th in runs and 10th in RBIs) due to the large number of extra base hits; 256 is 9th in the majors. The offense is average which isn’t amazing, but it’s a better than the missing offense of the Mets and the hot-and-cold offense of the Astros. Another aspect that really helps the Twins this season is the young blood that the Twins are bring up from the minors. Most notably is Sano who is tearing it up in his first 11 games played. Small sample size and the league still has time to adjust to him, but if he keeps hitting at a .300 clip, that’s a huge assist for the Twins. Also waiting in the wings is top prospect Byron Buxton. He struggled in his first taste of major league action before he was injured, but if he’s able to come back and add more juice to the Twins line up, it’ll really boost the Twins playoff chances.
The Astros and Mets don’t have much in the way of offensive reinforcements from the minors the way the Twins have. Astros tried a few call ups but Carlos Correa is the only one who has really put in much of an impact. Twins also have the same amount of players hitting over .250 (min 100 ABs) at eight, with four regulars, as the Mets and Astros have combined (and only four regulars combined as well). Twins have good power in the lineup with three guys having more than 10 home runs from the first half of the season and four guys having more than 35 runs scored as well as a RBI total of over 40. The Twins are a quietly good offensive team. Not great, but good.
The pitching is average as well. 15th in the league in ERA and a pitching staff that doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (537 Ks is last in the majors) but also doesn’t walk many men, either (215 walks, third least in the majors). The rotation just welcomed Santana after his suspension ended but it hasn’t been a very pretty first two starts (12 IP, 8 ER). Tommy Milone (2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and Kyle Gibson (2.85 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) are the rotation leaders right now, but the Twins do need reinforcements from the deadline deals to add to the rotation and the bullpen. Luckily, the offense is doing just enough right now to keep the Twins afloat in the first Wild Card slot and the deadline is filled with more pitchers than hitters.
The Twins can target an ace to lead the staff (Cueto, Kazmir, maybe Samardzija) or go smaller and look at Haren, Latos, Gallardo (if the Rangers decide to sell) and look at Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, A. J. Ramos, Addison Russell, or others to address the bullpen. What I’m getting at is that the Twins have more options when looking to add pitching than the Mets or Astros have of getting the needed offense at the deadline.
The Twins open the second half with the Athletics, Angels, and Yankees. Not quite the easy schedule, but not a very difficult way to open the second half of the season. As with the Astros and the Mets, a bad start out of the gate can really change everything. I see the Twins as a more complete team than the Mets and Astros, however. The offense and pitching is a little more balanced and the players that fit the Twins needs are more plentiful than those that fit the Astros or Mets.
If you read my Mid-Season Review post, you’ll know that I have the Twins getting the second Wild Card slot but losing to the Blue Jays. If you’ve not read my Mid-Season Review post, check it out to see my full post-season predictions (https://citb10.wordpress.com/2015/07/14/2015-mid-season-review/).
A Tale of Three Cities: A Look at the New York Mets’ Playoff Chances
Three teams have risen above my expectations and have put themselves in the midst of a playoff hunt for the second half of the MLB season. The Astros, the Twins, and the Mets are all winning games that I didn’t think that they would. I did believe during the pre-season that the Astros and the Mets were trending upwards right now with their minor league talent and the strong teams that are being built. The Twins, however, I had less hope for. I mentioned in my “Mid-Season Review” piece that, of all those teams, the Twins would be the only one to make the playoffs. Here is a deeper look into the teams and why I believe the team will go where it does. Next up, the New York Mets.
The Mets have a similar issue as the Astros, a weak offense. However, unlike the Astros, the offense is far more anemic across the board. 30th in the majors in hits (686) and AVG (.233), 29th in total bases (1067), 28th in runs (310), 27th in RBIs (297) and Extra Base Hits (XBH) (222) , 26th in OBP (.298), 20th in walks (237), 19th in HRs (75) and 12th in strikeouts (686). Bottom half of the league in every category sans strikeouts and bottom five in all but Ks, walks and HRs. That is a dreadful offensive output from the first half of the season. The player who leads the team in AVG is Juan Lagares at .256. The only other player with regular at-bats (min. 100) who has a better AVG than him is Daniel Murphy at .277. And there is only one other player, Wilmer Flores, with an AVG above .250 (he sits at .252). There are three players with a WAR at or above 1 which is the same number of players who have an RBI total above 30. 38 RBIs is the team lead.
Now, the Mets do have some grand pitching. Third best team ERA in the majors and a 1.17 WHIP which is good for third best. The Mets starting rotation is full of youth and a lot of promise. Steven Matz is on the DL and will provide a shot in the arm for the pitching rotation and give the Mets the flexibility to use Colon and/or Niese in a trade to upgrade the anemic offense. Niese has a problem with a high WHIP (1.38), however, and Colon hasn’t excelled in limiting damage as he leads the team in earned runs allowed with 52, leading to a 4.46 ERA which would be his highest ERA since 2007 with the Angels (6.34). Basically, those two may not have the most trade value, especially to rebuilding clubs and Colon being a free agent after this season. Could be used as part of a three team deal with another contender looking for a pitching upgrade (Cubs, Tigers, Royals come to mind) with other moving pieces. The bullpen is looking good but it’s lacking a big power arm. Aside from Famailia, the closer, no other relief pitcher is striking out batters at a strong rate (Famailia has struck out 43 batters in 43.1 innings) and that could be an issue. No big strikeout pitcher can hurt in a high leverage situation. In fact, the Mets bullpen is 28th in strike outs with 211. Only other contending team with a lower bullpen K number is the Twins. And yes, I realize that bullpens can be quite successful without a lot of strikeouts, as the Mets one is currently, but it’s a good way to go into my next segment.
The Mets could use another bullpen piece and a lot of offense. Lagares and, possibly, Lucas Duda are the only two batters I wouldn’t replace on the Mets team right now. I can’t rely on d’Arnaud, Murphy or Wright to help the team’s offensive woes because they have been injured off and on all season. Also, Wright has been on the decline since last season when his injury woes began and there is no evident return date for him this season and d’Arnaud didn’t inspire me as a game changer in his time last season. Now, he’s still young and has can change that easily, I just don’t see it happening this season, especially since there is no real return date for him yet, either. Murphy is hitting similar to that of his career line, but I feel like he’d have more value to the Mets as a trade-able piece than as a member of the lineup come August, given that the offense around him is dreadful and that he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season.
You can argue that the Mets fortunes are changing after a very successful nine game stretch against the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks. But the Mets really struggled when facing off against the better pitching of the teams. The Mets were stymied by Kershaw (but they won that game in the 9th) and Greinke, Cain and Heston (another game they won in the 9th) and took care of business when facing against the lower tier pitchers like Bolsinger of the Dodgers, Peavy of the Giants (at least the way his season has gone so far) and the three Diamondback starters. Good teams beat bad teams and bad starters. But the Mets will continue to struggle against more complete teams as they already have this season (0-7 against the Cubs, 0-3 against the Pirates, 2-2 against the Cardinals and 3-4 against the Nationals, and a 7 game losing streak against the Blue Jays, Braves, and Brewers.)
The Mets open the second half at the Cardinals and Nationals then at home vs. the Dodgers. They’re already two games back of the Nationals and one game behind the Cubs for the Wild Card. A rough start out of the gate could really bury the Mets playoff chances but a strong start doesn’t really guarantee them anything, either. I liken this team to the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates; a team that was very hot in the start of the season but couldn’t quite finish the push when it came to the stretch. It’s a young and un-tested rotation that isn’t getting Wheeler back and already has a pitcher on it in Harvey who is recovering from his own TJ surgery, might be on an innings limit, and has been slightly sporadic this season.
The pitching is there for the Mets but the offense isn’t and it isn’t a player or two away from being fixed. The Mets should capitalize on the players of value and expiring contracts and sell at the deadline. Re-load the prospect pool and take a good, long, hard look at the free agent market and the trade block this off-season. Wise deals this round, however, will need to be made. No more Granderson, Bay, Cuddyer, or Bonilla (among others) esq contracts that do nothing aside from pay a lot of money to older players who can’t give worth to the team. IE: stop paying players for their past. (Seriously, what is with the Mets and signing older players to bad contracts?) The Mets could really build this team up with an excellent off-season, one that is a turning point (akin to the 2012-2013 off-season the Pirates had and how it changed fortunes tremendously) but it shouldn’t be hampered by deals made at the deadline.
Lets Make A Deal: Pirates and Diamondbacks
MLBTR reported on the 27th that the Diamondbacks were asking for a catcher in return for a shortstop. The D-Backs have plenty of depth at the SS position, both major league ready and in terms of prospects. Cliff Pennington, Didi Gregorius, and Chris Owings are all players who have major league experience and Nick Ahmed, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose Munoz are all on the D-Backs top 30 prospect list, something that Owings is also still part of.
Owings (#2) and Munoz (#11) might be out of range for the Pirates, but there is plenty of reason why a deal could be reached between these two teams. The Pirates have a need for a shortstop; not for the 2014 season, but for the long term. Barmes and Mercer don’t look to be long term solutions and the minor league talent on the middle infield (SS/2B) is quite weak.
The Pirates also have plenty of catchers to dangle at the D-Backs. The Pirates have Reese McGuire, the draftee from the 2013 draft, ranked 8th in the Pirates system, Tony Sanchez, ranked 11th, Wyatt Mathisen at 12th, and Jin-De Jhang at 17th. The only one of those players who has major league experience is Sanchez, while the rest have played in Single-A.
The Pirates most likely won’t put McGuire on the block as he is a highly valued player, even if he would make it enticing to try to pry away Owings from the D-Backs. However, the Pirates have the depth to trade away a lower prospect for a lower shortstop. Now, MLBTR states that the D-Backs are looking for a talent along the lines of Travis D’Arnaud of the Mets but the D-Backs are also very interested in improving their bullpen. The Pirates have plenty of depth there, as well.
Munoz could be had for the right price. The Pirates could get the 19 year old SS for a package of Mathisen. It would be a swap of almost equal age and ranking prospects.
The Pirates have also have so much depth at relief pitching that one of them could be part of it. Someone like Hughes or Gomez could be included, but in that case, the Pirates could probably lower the level of the catching prospect by sending Jhang instead of Mathisen.
If the D-Backs wanted more immediate help at the catching position, the Pirates can offer Sanchez. He has major league experience, still ranked at 11th among prospects, and could be the back-up, even part time, catcher with Montero. The Pirates could still include a major league pitcher for the D-Backs relief core to raise the ante to pry away an upper level prospect from the D-Backs, but since Munoz isn’t ranked in the top 100 according to MLB.com or the top 10 at the position of SS, it may not be needed.
The Pirates need more infield depth and getting a young prospect would be great for the system. Trading a catcher makes sense as there are three top-20 prospects all at the same level and Sanchez being almost expendable, at the right price, with the acquisition of Stewart form the Yankees. I see a deal along the lines that I suggested above being a win-win for each organization; fulfilling a need by trading from a surplus.
Cats In The Bleachers 
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