MLB 16 Preview: Post Season and Awards
Baseball season is upon us! In a few hours, first pitch for many teams will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As the start of baseball season is upon us, I want to write down my post-season predictions and awards for the 2016 season. Looking back on these is always a blast once the season is over, but here they are never-the-less!
AL seeding: 1) Astros 2) Blue Jays 3) Royals 4) Indians 5) Rays (beating the Mariners in a one game playoff to get to the one game playoff)
Indians over Rays: Tampa will be tired from having to play the first one-game playoff and will have already used the ace of the team, making it difficult to match-up against the Indians.
Astros vs. Indians: Indians in five – Cleveland’s pitching overwhelms the strikeout heavy offense of the Astros.
Blue Jays vs. Royals: Blue Jays in four – a reverse of last years ALCS with Toronto coming out on top with deeper pitching and a stronger, better clicking offense.
Blue Jays vs. Indians: Blue Jays in six – Toronto has a stronger, more balanced offense and is able to keep pace with the Indians pitching with a little help from home field advantage.
NL seeding: 1) Cubs 2) Mets 3) Dodgers 4) Pirates 5) Cardinals
Pirates over Cardinals: A one-game playoff has been the bane of the Pirates lately but hey, third time is a charm and this time, Gerrit Cole has a little playoff experience under his belt. The Cardinals are not as overwhelming as they have been in years past and are unable to handle the Pirates in PNC Park.
Cubs vs. Pirates: Pirates in five – the pitching depth still is not quite there for the Cubs (barring a trade deadline move) and the Pirates bullpen can keep a lead once it is acquired. It will be one of the best series in the playoffs, however.
Mets vs. Dodgers: Mets in four – It will not be a sweep, but the Mets pitching overwhelms the lackluster Dodgers this season in a pretty easy fashion.
Mets vs. Pirates: Pirates in seven – No repeat for the Mets this year as the Pirates have a better defense and bullpen than the Mets and those were the exact things that brought NY down against the Royals in the World Series. It will be a long series, however, as the Mets pitching is not going to falter that easily.
World Series: Blue Jays vs. Pirates… Toronto in six – It hurts to write that, but Toronto has an excellently balanced lineup, especially with the DH factored in, and the pitching staff is better than people are giving it credit for.
AL MVP: Carlos Correa – This youngster has loads of talent on offense and defense and he shows it all in his first full season.
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton – with a full season under his belt and lineup protection, Stanton might be able to mash 50 homeruns and hit around .300.
AL CY Young: Chris Archer – His power pitching and ability to rack up the Ks helps to push the Rays into the playoffs as well as helping Rays fans forget about David Price… a little bit.
NL CY Young: Zack Greinke – His dominance continues down in Arizona and he wins the award that he was very close to winning in LA last season, making good on the huge contract that he signed as well as giving D-Back fans a reason to hope for next season.
Note: I do not predict Rookie of the Year because there is no way to know what players will be up come mid-season. Ask me again around the All-Star Break.
Teeing Off: End of the Pirates Season and World Series picks
Well, it’s that time of the year, playoff baseball time. Unfortunately, I don’t get to see my World Series winning pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates, continue on in the playoffs. While I still fully believe that the Wild-Card, 1-game playoff has flaws and that, had the Pirates not been exposed to it, they would’ve won the World Series, I also have to stick to my mantra of “Don’t like it? Win the division” when I would talk about other forms of wild card teams. And, hey, it was still a fantastic Pirates baseball season. I remember when people thought me giving the Pirates 95 wins in the pre-season was far and beyond being generous. I’ll have plenty of Pirates coverage including a season grade, off-season move predictions, and other such coverage in the next week. Fall break is almost upon me which will help me get back into the blogging thought.
Other than that, here are a few other notes about recent weeks:
American League pick: I’m going to stick to my guns and say the Royals make it for the AL. They’re a strong team that I think coasted at the end of the season for health and protection. Getting past the Astros shouldn’t be too difficult for KC but Toronto might be a tougher challenge. Johnny Cueto is the key: if he doesn’t have at least some semblance of a great pitcher for KC in the playoff, it’ll hard to overcome that.
National League pick: As much as I don’t want to say something like this, I believe that which ever team wins the Cubs-Cardinals series will win the NL. The Mets and Dodgers have too many holes and the NL Central sent the three best teams in the MLB to the playoffs. That’s not something that happens by accident. That being said, I give the edge to the Cardinals. They have top pitching and a team that has been-there-done-that. Cubs are good, but the rotation isn’t there to carry a team through a long playoff series.
World Series pick: Royals vs. Cardinals would be one heck of a World Series. I feel like neither team would truly have home-field advantage due to the close location proximity. I’ll take the Royals in six games, however. KC almost had it all last year and the team is hungry. The pitching is better suited and KC has better depth. If it were KC vs. Pittsburgh, I’d take the Pirates and not just because I’m a huge fan. But it isn’t and so I’m going to stick with the Royals.
2015 Mid-Season Review
Well, the Mets are winning the games that I thought the Marlins would, the Astros are winning the games I thought the Mariners would, and the Twins/Royals are winning the games that I thought the White Sox would. Realizing that three of my playoff teams, and one of my World Series teams, are more than likely out of the running, I’ve come forward with some changes to my pre-season picks.
Preseason playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals AL East: Orioles
NL Central: Pirates AL Central: White Sox
NL West: Dodgers AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
Mid season playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals AL East: Rays
NL Central: Pirates AL Central: Royals
NL West: Dodgers AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Cardinals and Cubs Wildcard: Blue Jays and Twins
My NL stays primarily the same. I still believe the Pirates will over-take the Cardinals for the division lead and might end up with the best record in the NL, if not the majors. Just replacing the Cubs for the Marlins as Miami has been a major disappointment and Chicago is good enough to push for the Wild Card slot. Especially since their competition is the surprising, and offensively anemic, Mets and the injury prone, hot-and-cold Giants.
AL, however, is different. It seems that when I put my faith in the Rays, they disappoint me. When I take it away, they manage to surprise me. However, they have the best pitching in the AL East and pitching wins games. I didn’t have faith in the Royals; I thought their pitching was rough and Morales has been a huge surprise. They also have the depth to deal with the loss of Alex Gordon. I don’t think the Astros can continue their torrid pace; currently on an eight game losing streak and this team is basically “home run or bust” from top to bottom. The Wild Card gets exciting but the Blue Jays have the offense, they just need the pitching. And I’m sure they’ll go after a top target (Cueto, Kazmir, etc…) and the Twins have a large enough lead and have been consistent enough to instill enough confidence that they’ll hold on to the slot.
DS: Pirates over Cubs, Nationals over Dodgers
Royals over Blue Jays, Rays over Angels
CS: Pirates over Nationals
Royals over Rays
WS: Pirates over Royals in six.
I’m still driving the Pirates World Series champion’s bandwagon. It’ll be tough to get past the Nationals, but if the Pirates over-take the Cardinals, they’ll be able to over-take anyone. The Royals have a little easier road to the World Series as, in my opinion, the AL isn’t as strong as it was last year or as strong as the NL.
Pre-Season Award winners:
NL MVP: Adrew McCutchen NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson AL CY Young: Chris Sale
NL and AL ROY not selected.
Mid-Season Award winners:
NL MVP: Bryce Harper NL CY Young: Gerrit Cole
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson AL CY Young: Chris Sale
My NL predictions weren’t bad, just a few player have risen up. Harper is the mid-season favorite to me and I’ll ride that hot card. Pitching wise, there are a lot of good choices for both the AL and the NL. But Cole, should he continue what he’s doing now, will set some career highs, possible franchise records, and is succeeding past what even I thought he would this preseason.
My AL predictions are staying the same. Sale is a huge bright spot on a struggling White Sox team. And while they won’t be playoff bound, his numbers are bright enough to take the attention. As for Donaldson, he’s currently in the top five of the following AL categories: WAR, hits, runs, HRs, RBIs, XBH, D-WAR, and is top 10 in doubles. Oh, and he’s been healthy all season long.
Rookie of the Year: I told you to ask me mid-season and here are my picks:
AL: Billy Burns, Athletics NL: Kris Bryant, Cubs
Burns has been a catalyst for the Athletics. He hits well for extra bases (10 doubles, five triples, two HRs) and has great speed (17 stolen bases, caught only three times) has 38 runs, and has 82 hits. He leads all AL rookies in those categories sans XBH, where he’s third.
Bryant had some drama to start his ML career, but with the numbers he’s putting up, why wouldn’t any team want to ensure an extra season of control? He leads NL rookies in runs and RBIs and is second in XBH, HRs, WAR, and third in doubles and total hits. Only problem is that he strikes out A LOT (101 Ks in 286 ABs).
Pre-Season overall divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
Mid-Season overall divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates (**) Dodgers
Mets Cardinals Giants
Braves Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Padres
AL East: Central: West:
Rays Royals (*) Angels
Blue Jays Twins Astros
Yankees Indians Rangers
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Red Sox White Sox (#) Mariners
Baseball Predictions
Again, I apologize to my readers for not doing my annual MLB preview series. However, I couldn’t go without letting my predictions go down on paper for this upcoming MLB season. Starting with my playoff teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Marlins and Cardinals
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
Wildcard: Blue Jays and Tigers
DS: Pirates over Nationals, Marlins over Dodgers
White Sox over Orioles, Blue Jays over Mariners
CS: Pirates over Marlins
White Sox over Blue Jays
WS: Pirates over White Sox
There is a lot of hype on the Pirates this year and I understand why, as a Pittsburgh native. Small market teams don’t have a large window of opportunity and the Pirates have been pushing the window open for years. The White Sox have turned around their franchise with some shrewd moves this offseason and have a solid roster. Both teams have the ability to be very active at the deadline should issues arise during the season and the fan base to support the team through a long run.
NL MVP: McCutchen – Yes, it’s a bit of a homer pick, but his stats haven’t declined over the past two seasons, the roster overall is better for him, and he’s well known throughout baseball.
NL CY Young: Johnny Cueto – Every year he seems to be close to getting it but either an injury or Kershaw step in the way. Cueto will still be the shining star on what could be a very poor Reds season, might even be moved to a contender come the deadline.
AL MVP: Josh Donaldson – He was a candidate last season with the A’s and now calls Toronto his home. A leader on the team that pushes the Blue Jays to playoff relevance could be exactly what he needs to win the award. Akin to McCutchen when he won his.
AL CY Young: Chris Sale – He’s an ace for Chicago and is going to have a bit of a late start to the season. However, as Kershaw showed last season, a dominate season can still win the award, even if you miss the first month. The leader of this team will lead them to a World Series appearance.
ROY: I don’ bother doing this pre-season because of mid-season call ups and expectations that don’t last. Ask me again come the All-Star break.
Overall Divisions: * denotes best record in conference, ** best record in baseball, # worst in the conference, ## worst in baseball
NL: East: Central: West:
Nationals Pirates Dodgers (**)
Marlins Cardinals Padres
Mets Cubs Giants
Braves Reds Rockies
Phillies (##) Brewers Diamondbacks
AL East: Central: West:
Orioles White Sox Mariners (*)
Blue Jays Tigers Angels
Yankees Indians Athletics
Red Sox Royals Astros
Rays Twins (#) Rangers
Game 7: Do You Have to Buy One?
I’ve never been this excited for a World Series game since 2011 when the Rangers and Cardinals were off for game 7. Game 7 has been pretty good to me in my lifetime: Marlins in 11 against the Indians, Diamondbacks defeating the Yankees, Angels winning vs. the Giants, and just missing the 91 Braves over Twins in 10 game. Being a citizen of Pittsburgh, I’ve even been subject to one of the best in history: Pirates vs. Yankees in 1960, as well as wins in 71 and 79 by the Pirates, who are also the last team to win a game 7 on the road.
However, this is more than just a game 7. This Royals team is playing with the lowest payroll of any playoff team that wasn’t eliminated in the Wild Card round at a little below 91 Million. In fact, they’re the only team that didn’t get eliminated in the Wild Card round to have less than 100 M in payroll. Nine teams had payrolls over 100 M that didn’t make the playoffs, and 17 teams in total had a larger payroll that KC, 16 of them over 100 M (Rockies had 92 M).
The highest paid player on the Royals? James Shields (who isn’t of their own contract signing) at 13.5 M, tied for the 57th highest in the sport. The next player? Their own contract given to OF Alex Gordon at 11.25 M , good for a tie at 77th in the game. Those were the only two players on the Royals team to have over 10 M paid to him this year.
For the Giants? 6th highest payroll in MLB at Appx. 148 M, 3rd highest in the NL (Dodgers at 1, Phillies at 3). Five total players have over 10 M being pain to them this year: Hudson at 11 M (T 80th), Posey at 11.3 M (77th), Pence at 15.2 (T 47th), Peavy at 16.2 M (31st but part is being paid by the RedSox), and Lincecum at 17 M (T 25th) who isn’t a starter and didn’t pitch well enough this season to be a part of the playoff team, as he’s thrown a total of 1.2 IP this postseason.
Money and payroll doesn’t add up to success, look at teams like the Phillies and RedSox who didn’t even grab a winning record this season. And with having three teams with low payrolls make the playoffs (Pirates and As got eliminated in the Wild Card round) speaks well to the league, even more so with the Royals on the cusp of winning the World Series. A win will not justify having a tiny payroll as 91 M isn’t something to just scoff at, but it shows that the league is going in the right direction with lower payroll teams doing so well. However, the league still needs to see more small market teams win the World Series, make it to the World Series, and even make it to the playoffs. If the Giants win, it will mark the 11th year that a high payroll team wins the World Series (a small market hasn’t won since the Marlins in 2003 who had a payroll of 54M) which has lead to the belief that you have to buy your championship.
So, no, you don’t have to “buy” a game 7 in the World Series, you just have to be competitive and good at what your game plan is. However, a lot more hinges on the victor of tonight’s match-up than winner of the 2014 MLB season. It looks to the future of baseball, the future of rising payrolls and the success of small market teams. That’s why I’m rooting, heavily, for the Royals. Let the small market teams know they can win with a small payroll, and perhaps these ludicrous payrolls of 125M+ (which 10 of the 30 MLB teams sported at the end of the 2014 season) will begin to drop and more teams, more players, and more fans will have a chance to win.
Note: All payroll information and rankings come from ESPN.com and Spotrac.com
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