Being a Pirates Fan at the Trade Deadline can be VERY Frustrating
Most fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates had to endure some, if not all, of the historic losing streak and then were rewarded with three consecutive playoff appearances. During each of those playoff seasons came a trade deadline. It was a bit of uncharted territory as the Pirates were buyers, not sellers; you would think that this new territory would bring joy and excitement. Yet, all it brought was discontent and complaining. And as a Pirates fan, it gets really annoying to hear people cry out “the Pirates are cheap!” no matter what actions are taken.
Two seasons ago, it was complaining that the Pirates did not go out and acquire David Price. Most reports, however, showed that the Pirates organization tried its best to get him, but the Rays wanted more MLB ready talent. Last season, it was moans and cries about how the only starting pitcher that was acquired was J.A. Happ and that it was an immense overpay. And then those same people bemoaned when the Pirates did not resign him in the off-season. At the end of the day, it feels like the Pirates could win the World Series and some people would still find a way to call out the organization and those within it for being cheap and not doing more.
This trade deadline was no different. All sorts of people had a dream player or two they would have liked the Pirates to acquire, and I was no different. At the end of the day, however, all we are are fans; we are people who read reports, watch games, have opinions, have one view out of 30 available, and do not know what happens behind closed doors.
Many fans are upset that Ivan Nova was the biggest piece for the Pirates to acquire. Nova, however, was the only one really available for the Pirates. Many people, myself included, wanted to see LHP Matt Moore come to Pittsburgh from Tampa Bay, but he ended up going to San Francisco. They out-bid Pittsburgh, plain and simple, because Tampa wanted at least two of the Pirates top-five prospects. That would have meant that two out of Josh Bell, Tyler Glassnow, Austin Meadows, Jameson Taillon, and Kevin Newman would have been sent to Tampa. I get that pitchers with extended team control are valuable, but Moore has not had the most stellar of seasons and is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (244-151 FB/GB ratio this season, 944/623 ratio in his career). The current Pirates brass does not often target flyball pitchers, but look for players who induce ground-ball outs, so the chances of using two of the top five team prospects to get him was pretty much out of the question.
Other than Moore, not too many pitchers with extended team control were on the market, and that is what Pittsburgh was looking for. Not one year rentals like Rich Hill (who has a plethora of concerns on his own, but that is a different conversation). So the Pirates acquired Nova for very little: two players to be named later. What Nova will do with the Pirates is unknown, but he gets ground ball outs (175 this year, 1209 in his career), is having the best K/BB ratio oh his career (3/1), and leaving the home run happy Yankee stadium and getting an outfield that is far better defensively than that in New York might help his other numbers come down a little.
Many people were also upset that the Pirates traded away Mark Melancon. The Pirates wanted to get something out him and the market was high for top-tier closers. Pittsburgh was able to get five more years for a player who could easily be the closer of the future, if not the closer for next year, in Felipe Rivero. I am high on him, love the team control through 2021, and also love the fact that the Pirates do not have to risk giving Melancon a qualifying offer that could be around 17 million for this off-season. The closer position is one of the most fickle in baseball and while it is nice to have consistency, one never knows when a reliever might up-and-implode one season, thus making it hard to justify using about 20% of a teams payroll on one relief pitcher.
Then there is the fact that the Pirates were able to trade Jon Niese. While I have never been the biggest fan of Antonio Bastardo, he did pitch well enough with the Pirates in 2015 and, as I said before, relief pitchers can be very fickle. So having Bastardo for next season and giving him a chance to pitch with the team that he had a 2.98 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, in 57.1 innings while limiting batters to a .188/.287/.284 batting line is worth the risk. He will slide into the 6th/7th inning role nicely and it also eliminates the need to find a second lefty reliever this off-season. Also, let us not forget that Niese was not worth peanuts. So the fact that the Pirates were able to get anything for him is pretty good.
And then there is the highly contested Francisco Lirano trade with the Blue Jays. I will not sugarcoat it for it does not need to be sugarcoated. This was partly a salary dump trade. Liriano is not worth that 13.7 million he is due next year. He leads the majors in walks, he is set to have his worst ERA and most losses since 09, set for a career worst in WHIP and WAR, and his worst K/BB ratio since 11. And a move to the Rogers Centere does not bode well as it is a smaller ballpark. The Pirates had to give up something to have the Blue Jays take on that burden, enter Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire, as well as need to acquire something of some value in return, so enter Drew Hutchison. He is not the most impressive of pitchers, and his fly ball/ ground ball ratio is a bit alarming for the Pirates, but he has a chance to adapt to the Pirates way of pitching in AAA for a bit before getting a chance to start in September and next year. And yes, keeping him in AAA does help lower his cost and give an extra year of control, but keeping costs low was part of the framework of this deal.
Now for a look at the two prospects. Honestly, I do wonder how many people knew about Ramirez before yesterday. Ramirez is a high average, decent OBP, low power outfield bat with a cannon arm. That is fantastic to have, if your team does not already have two All-Star caliber outfielders signed through 2020 plus, a fan-favorite center-fielder, and a mega prospect waiting in the wings. Ramirez was expendable, simple as that. It would have been nice to see him part of a better return, but he was not going to have much of a future in Pittsburgh. And his bat, honestly, may not develop into a major league bat given his low walk rate and lack of power.
McGuire has defense that is very well regarded around the league. His bat, however, is looking to be below average. He has not hit above .270 in any season above rookie ball, sans one short stint in the Arizona Fall League, and his defense could possibly falter as he has committed a total of 20 errors in the last two seasons combined. With Francisco Cervelli signed for three more seasons and Elias Diaz set to line up as the next back-up an then starter for the Pirates, McGuire too was starting to look a little blocked.
At the end, the best way to know more about this trade is to see how the Pirates will use the extra 14 million, give-take, that has been opened up for the off-season. Salary raises are coming in bunches from arbitration (Gerrit Cole hits that for the first time this season) and contracts already signed are going to be big next year and the Pirates might look to extend Cole or another young pitcher, akin to what the Rays have done in the past. Also, people need to give Hutchison a chance to perform and see why the Pirates went out of the way to acquire him.
I am not trying to say that these were the best moves, but what I am trying to say is stop calling the Pirates and the front office cheap! First, you cannot fault the Pirates for teams not willing to play ball with them, see the fact that the Pirates called the Braves about a chance to acquire Julio Tehran and were told no off the bat. Second, stop complaining about everything the Pirates do. It is super easy to spend someone else’s resources, be they prospects or cash, and think both short and long term with the moves. And if the Pirates are cheap, what does that make the Padres? The Padres front office traded away about every single large contract on its books this season. Were the Indians cheap when that franchise tried to absolve itself of a few payroll eyesores last season when trading Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher? How about the Astros? Are they cheap and giving up on the playoffs because they traded away a few major league players in the middle of a playoff hunt? Are the Tigers cheap because they did not make any moves? The Cardinals only acquired Zach Duke so do they not care and are they cheap? I can go on. And third, stop being so obsessed with the big names and the flashy moves. Rarely do moves like that actually pan out for a team. Price has yet to win a World Series and he has been traded twice. Carlos Beltran has been all around the league and has yet to win a World Series.
I know some people who would not of been happy unless the Pirates had traded John Jaso, Jeff Locke, and Matt Joyce for Stephen Strasburg and having the Nationals still pay all his contract. Some people really need to wake up and smell the freshly cut outfield grass. The MLB does not work the same way your video game does. I had heard some ludicrous trade ideas before this deadline, including but not limited to: “Jaso, Joyce, and Eric Fryer to the Rays for Moore” and “David Freese, Joyce, Sean Rodriguez and a prospect to the Indians for Carlos Carrasco and Tervor Bauer.” I get it, people are frustrated with losing the last two Wild Card games, being stuck in a division where the Cubs and Cardinals can out spend the Pirates, no salary cap, and watching some fan-favorite players leave and/or struggle. But sometimes it takes more than one or two months to see the whole picture, sometimes you cannot see the forest through the trees, and as the Penguins fans learned from watching the Pens hoist the Stanley Cup this past June, sometimes the unpopular moves are the right moves to make.
MLB 16 Preview: NL East
Baseball season is upon us! In a few hours, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to finish giving my regular season projections with the NL East. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Atlanta Braves: Atlanta had a busy off-season without spending a lot of money. A lot of buy-low signings on players to see what they have left in the tank and possibly be moved come the trade deadline. The Braves also strengthened the minor league aspect of the team with the trades of Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller, Cameron Maybin, and Christian Bethancourt. Atlanta looks to use this season to see what some of the younger offensive players can do (Jace Peterson and Adonis Garcia) while waiting for pitching to develop in the minor league system.
Miami Marlins: A team still looking for its first winning season since changing the name (from the Florida Marlins) and currently looking at a six year streak of having a losing record, the Marlins have been up and down in people’s rankings for years, always letting down playoff predictions yet staying away from being one of the worst teams overall. This off-season, Miami looked to add to the pitching staff and so Wei-Yin Chen was brought in to be the number two man behind Jose Fernandez. Miami has a lot of young talent and a very strong outfield, but all the players staying healthy has been an issue in Miami and the pitching is a bit of a coin-flip right now. Still, Miami can surprise if all the pieces fit and the Marlins are hoping that new manager Don Mattingly can be the one make the puzzle whole.
New York Mets: A brand new up-the-middle trio is in New York with the signing of Asdrubal Cabrera, the trade for Neil Walker, and the return of Yoenis Cespedes. I also love the pitching rotation, as most people do, but there are three things that worry me about the Mets. One: the corners – Lucas Duda at first hits a ton of HRs and that is about it and third has David Wright, whose health looks to be just as big of a problem as it was last year. Also, I am not a big believer in Curtis Granderson but I do like Michael Conforto to improve in his second MLB season. Second: the depth – mainly for the infield as Cabrera, Walker, and Wright all have a history of injury and/or not being overly productive, especially on defense. With the release of Ruben Tejada, the team lost a lot of infield depth and if the injuries or struggles come, that could be a huge hit to the NYM. Third: the bullpen – I still think it is a very weak aspect of the Mets team, as it was exposed to be during the World Series.
Philadelphia Phillies: I usually do not think that teams make moves in the off-season while still expecting to lose, but what the Phillies did this off-season makes me think that this team did just that. The rotation was filled with a handful of one-year cast offs like Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton while the prospects develop in the minors, a lot of them coming from the Astros in the Ken Giles trade, the bullpen was more-or-less ignored, and the Phillies could not find someone to take the albatross that Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz have become, off of their hands. That being said, the team does have a lot of promising youth, lead by third basemen Maikel Franco, and an interesting outfield that could become a very strong one in the near future. It is a young team that will not contend this year as Philadelphia has committed to the full rebuild.
Washington Nationals: A team that had very high expectations last season really fell to the ground in the second half, so the Nationals went out to upgrade the team by bringing in Ben Revere and Daniel Murphy to take starting roles. The rotation is pretty much the same, sans Doug Fister, and the outfield is lead by Bryce Harper and has an excellent fourth outfielder in the young Michael Taylor. A big boon to this team will be rebound seasons from Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg while hoping that Danny Espinosa can continue his bounce-back that he started last season.
Predictions:
Mets: 94-68
Nationals: 87-75
Marlins: 83-79
Braves: 72-90
Phillies: 65-97
Okay, I know I was a little harsh on the Mets earlier, but that is one heck of a rotation and that is what gives me the most confidence about this team. Plus, the one years buys on Walker and Cespedes (who will, more than likely, exercise his opt-out) will help this team offensively. The Nationals do not strike much fear into me; maybe they should, but right now, they just look like a team that will make a push for the wild card and come out just short. The Marlins will finally get the winning season in Miami and make things a little interesting, but the health needs to be there along with the consistency before I can buy into them and label them as a playoff team (like I did last year).
The Braves and Phillies both look to be better than they were last season, but both teams are still in the midst of a rebuild and still need a little bit of time. I like where the Braves stand now more-so than the Phillies, mainly because Philadelphia has a lot of money tied up in Ruiz and Howard and that money is being wasted, but both teams will be interesting to watch come the trade deadline.
MLB 16 Preview: NL West
Baseball season is upon us! Tomorrow, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to start giving my projections, moving on to the NL West. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Arizona Diamondbacks: This team made a huge splash this off-season and shocked many, including myself, by signing Zack Greinke to a six yea, 206.5 million dollar deal. The team showed other “win-now” moves by signing Tyler Clippard and trading for Shelby Miller and Jean Segura at the expense of a plethora of prospects. Just as the team was looking to be very promising in pitching and offense, the team announced last night that CF A. J. Pollock fractured his right elbow, will need surgery, and will be out for an undisclosed amount of time. And that was not an April Fool’s prank, much to the dismay of many D-Backs fans. The D-Backs hosted the best spring training record, but still hold a handful of questions, mainly about the middle infield. The team is looking to win soon, if not now, but the injury to Pollock may force them to change their plans.
Colorado Rockies: A team that was in desperate need of pitching, especially for the rotation (best ERA of 100+ IP was Jorge De La Rosa at 4.17 and the team ERA was 5.04 last season with a sky-high 1.51 WHIP) seemed to pretty much ignore that factor. Bullpen relief was brought in by the signings of Jason Motte and Chad Qualls and the trade for Jake McGee for the young OF, Corey Dickerson. Dickerson was replaced by the signing of Gerardo Parra, but that also does not look to be, on paper, an upgrade. The Rockies have been resistant to having a full rebuild in recent years, leading to a small streak of five straight years. Another pitching collapse, lack of health to some players (looking at you, Carlos Gonzalez), and/or sub-par years from DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado could have fans looking at six straight losing seasons and a complete rebuild in the off-season.
Los Angles Dodgers: Not many people expected Greinke to leave Dodger blue to go south, but that was about the biggest thing that could happen to the Dodgers this off-season, and not in a good way. To try to offset the loss, the Dodgers signed Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda while hoping that Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson can stay healthy and shore up the back of the rotation. Oops! Those two are currently on the DL and those two, along with Hyun-Jin Ryu are not expected back until late July to early August, if at all. The log-jam in the outfield got cleared up very quickly when fractured his right tibia and will be out for most of the first half of the season as well. A lot of high-priced players are on the shelf, making the Dodgers rely on unknown or young players. Corey Seager, now the starting shortstop, is looking to build upon his excellent first 98 at-bats last season where he hit .337 with a .425 OBP and showed good power with 13 of his first 33 hits being for extra bases. The Dodgers are also hoping that Yasiel Puig bounces back after a very rough 2015 and that Joc Pederson looks more like his first half last season (20 HRs, .364 OBP) than his second half (6 HRs, .317 OBP) and that his strikeout numbers fall (170 Ks last season).
San Diego Padres: Compared to the 2014-2015 off-season, the Padres were very quiet. The team did, however, fetch a nice return from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The rotation has a chance to look sold 1-3 with James Shields, if he can limit the HRs, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner. Those three, however, could also be gone come August 1st. The outfield looks like a collection of cast-offs from other teams (Melvin (BJ) Upton Jr, Jon Jay, and Matt Kemp), and the infield is a mix-and-match of players who need to bounce back (Alexei Ramirez and Wil Myers) or continue the success from last season (Yangervis Solarte and Cory Spangenberg). And with all the trades, the Padres bullpen looks very different than it did a year ago.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants had one of my favorite moves this off-season in signing Denard Span and then one of my least favorite moves in signing Jeff Samardzija. Adding Johnny Cuteo along with Samardzija does give the Giants a chance to have an elite rotation, even more so if Matt Cain looks more like his 2008-2011 form than his 2012-2015 form. But there is a lot of risk in the Giants rotation with hopes that Cain is healthy and strong, Cueto and Samardzija bounce back, and that Jake Peavy also remains healthy. The offense is hoping that Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik continue dong what they did last season. Plus, it is an even numbered year and the Giants have won a World Series ring in the last three even-numbered seasons.
Predictions:
Dodgers: 89-73
Giants: 86-76
Diamondbacks: 83-79
Padres: 71-91
Rockies: 61-101
The Dodgers will still win the division, probably off of a trade deadline move, but the teams depth is going to be very taxed with the plethora of questionable and injury-prone players that reside on the roster. The bullpen also does not inspire me much. It also helps that, despite the high reward in the Giants rotation, the risk to me seems all too great. If Samardzija continues to struggle and Cueto looks more like his form with the Royals (the excellent World Series game non-withstanding) than his time with the Reds, the Giants rotation will be in for a very long, and expensive, season. I do like both the Dodgers and Giants offense (SF for the outfield, LA for the infield sans Chase Utly at second) and I do expect both teams to be aggressive at the deadline.
The Diamondbacks had a chance to slide into second, maybe even grab a wild-card birth, until Pollock went down with his injury. The team lost the second most important offensive player and one of the best defenders at center in the game. That is a hard pill to swallow, especially after trading way OF depth in the Miller trade. The Padres and Rockies do not impress me at all. SD will probably trade its pitching aspects at the deadline and reap in a grand amount of prospects, making them a team to watch for the future, just not for 2016. The Rockies just do not have any pitching worth drafting in a fantasy baseball league, they do not have a true ace, and most of the pitching prospects in the last five years that have made it to Colorado have been shelled hard. Bad scouting, bad park location, bad free agent moves, it is a factor of all those for the Rockies and add on top of that the injury prone players, and they look to be one of the worst teams in the MLB this year.
Teeing Off: Top News from the Day
A lot happened today in the world of sports. The Blue Jays and Rockies got together for a trade-deadline blockbuster, the Royals got Ben Zobrist from the Athletics, and the Penguins (the NHL not wanting to be forgotten in the news) traded Brandon Sutter to the Canucks. The NFL got involved by announcing news on two suspensions: the one for Le’Veon Bell and for Tom Brady. Starting first with the trades:
Blue Jays and Rockies: The Blue Jays acquired shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies for shortstop Jose Reyes and three minor league pitchers: Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco. In the short-term, I like this trade for Toronto. Tulo is an upgrade over Reyes and helps the Blue Jays strong offense get better. Toronto was also looking to add a reliever and while they may not be done with that aspect of the team, and are still in the market for a starter, Hawkins is a good person to start with. Even if the Blue Jays miss the playoffs this season, Toronto still has most of the team under contract for next season. Of the upcoming four free agents for Toronto, only SP Marco Estrada is the biggest loss. None of the offensive players are scheduled to hit free agency and, when including dead money and options that I believe will be declined (Dickey and Izturis), the Blue Jays have about 82.1 million dollars coming off of the books for the off-season. Sure, some of that will be used in arbitration raises, but Toronto could use that money to peruse a top starter (Price, Cueto, Kazmir, etc…). Toronto did this with a mind on the future and the present.
Colorado also gets a bonus from this, but more long term. When all is said and done, the Rockies shed about 50 million in payroll and added three prospects who add pitching depth, and promise, to an organization that has been devoid of such for years. That being said, Colorado is often where pitching prospects go to die. It’s a hard organization, and a hard ballpark, to throw in. And, apparently, Tulo isn’t happy with the trade or how it was handled (in the past, the owner said that Tulo wasn’t going to be moved this season and Tulo himself said he wanted to stay in Colorado) which might turn off future free agents from joining the Rockies. But money talks and Colorado has more of it now to use to add a younger position player (Heyward, maybe Cespedes?) and/or a veteran pitcher to help the coming influx of younger talent. But if the money isn’t well managed and the pitchers follow a long line of young pitchers who struggle at Coors Field, it’ll be a hard one for Colorado; especially if the Blue Jays win a World Series with Tulo in tow.
Royals and Athletics: Kansas City is on a tear right now when it comes to trades. They added Cueto and Zobrist to strengthen this team now without worrying about next season. The Royals know their window is small and don’t have many shots at a World Series so they’re going all in for this one. I liked the Cueto trade for the Royals and I like the Zobrist one as well. Zobrist can play the outfield until Alex Gordon returns and then second and outfield once Gordon does return, spelling Gordon when he needs a day off and effectively replace Infante at second. Oakland got a nice return in Sean Manaea who was Kansas City’s third rated prospect but did struggle this season when he was promoted to AA. Aaron Brooks has bounced between the majors and AAA this season and looks to be another bullpen piece for the Athletics. A throw in as Manaea was the headliner in that deal.
Brandon Sutter: Sutter and a 2016 third round pick left Pittsburgh to go to Vancouver for a 2016 second round pick, center Nick Bonino and defensemen Adam Clendening. Sutter had a cap hit of 3.3 million this season and, to replace him on the third line, the Penguins signed center Eric Fehr, who will have a cap hit of about 2 million this season. The stats are similar as well: Sutter had 21 goals, 12 assists, a plus/minus rating of six, and 14 penalty minutes last season. Fehr had 19 goals, 14 assists, a plus/minus of six, and 20 penalty minutes. Career wise, shooting percentages are quite even as well with Sutter at 10.3% and Fehr at 10.1%.
Le’Veon Bell Suspension: The Steelers running back had his suspension reduced today from three games to two. It happened quietly and easily, and was expected. Two games is the usual penalty for this type of incident and while I personally believe it should be more (he broke a law; not just in the NFL but in real life. And drove while doing it. And didn’t know it was illegal. That might be the worst part…) it falls within the precedent for the league. The Steelers will miss him as they open the season at New England and vs. San Francisco, two teams that might be trouble if the running game is non-existent for the Steelers, as the Ravens playoff match-up was.
DeflateGate: The saga continues: If you read my earlier DeflateGate series when the penalties and suspension were first handed down, you would know that I wasn’t a fan of such an abuse of power by Goodell, especially since he decided to rule over the appeal hearing. Well the ruling came in today and the suspension hasn’t been reduced one bit. Goodell is stating that the fact that Brady “destroyed his cell phone” on the day he met with Ted Wells to interview for his very… loose report. As expected, the NFLPA is going to appeal this in federal court, as they did with Adrian Peterson’s suspension (which they won) and the NFL is suing to keep the suspension active, even if this should go to a federal court during the NFL season. The drama is piling on with this saga and I am going to do a full article on this next. But for now, be content in knowing that I still think Goodell and this case is a sham and an abuse of power. And I also find it… ya know what? I’m saving it for my next article.
Personal Notes: Marvel’s Ant-Man was a great movie. Go see it. It’s not as funny as Guardians of the Galaxy and not as action-packed or serious as Avengers: Age of Ultron, but it was really good and really has me excited for the next round of Marvel movies coming up in the future. Excluding Fantastic Four. I still hold some trepidation about that movie.
Also, Billy Joel’s Glass Houses album is very good classic rock. Just saying.
Playing Armchair GM: Looking at Relief Pitchers who fit with the Pirates
It now appears that Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez has been taken off of the trade block and the Pirates momentary search for a new first baseman has ended, it’s time to look at the trade deadline from a different angle. The Pirates offense, when all is said and done, is fine. Gregory Polanco is getting hot as… well late July usually does here in southwest PA. Aramis Ramirez holds down the hot-corner until Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer return to bolster the line-up which will, in turn, bolster the bench. Getting two regular players back at full health, and fully rested, in the middle of August is the same, if not better, than making a deadline for a new offensive bat. Not saying that first base, and the infield as a whole, isn’t something the Pirates shouldn’t address in the future, as in the off-season, but it isn’t something that needs to be addressed right here, right now. No, the Pirates needs lie in pitching.
Relief pitching should be the Pirates number one target right now. The bullpen is flexible in that there is an ability to move players. First, injured Rob Scahill (26 IP, 27 hits, 12 walks, 22 Ks, 12 runs allowed, six earned and two home runs) can be optioned to AAA upon return from his rehab and rookie Deolis Guerra (14.1 IP, 15 hits, two walks, 13 Ks, five earned runs allowed, three home runs) can also be optioned back if needed. Two other members of the bullpen, Vance Worley (69 IP (eight starts) 75 hits, 19 walks, 47 Ks, 33 runs allowed, 29 earned and six home runs) and Arquimedes Caminero (44.1 IP, 41 hits, 17 walks, 47 Ks, 23 runs allowed, 22 earned and six home runs) don’t have any options left but still have three and five years of team control left, respectively. Neither is pitching particularly amazingly and could have a high chance of passing through waivers if DFA’d. Also, the team control factors could make them minor throw-in pieces to a trade. Finally, Antonia Bastardo (30 IP, 28 hits, 13 walks, 28 Ks, 13 earned runs and four home runs) was a poor replacement of LHP Justin Wilson (sent to the Yankees for Francisco Cervelli) and is a free agent after this season. So if he were to be removed from the active roster, it wouldn’t be the worst of choices.
So, with that flexibility, the Pirates can go and obtain another reliever without really losing anything, especially if Pittsburgh capitalizes on the two players with options remaining. The Pirates don’t need just any reliever, though, they need an arm that is reliable in a high leverage situation to help take some pressure off of Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, and Mark Melancon (combined 142 appearances and 134.2 innings pitched but only 27 earned runs for a group ERA of 1.87) as the Pirates go down the stretch. Ideally, the Pirates would also like to get someone with control to avoid what the Orioles went through last trade deadline; acquiring a big name reliever in Andrew Miller, give up a top prospect, not be able to go far with him in the postseason, and watch him leave via free agency. With all that said, I’ve narrowed it to four names for the Pirates, in descending order of ideal want: Will Smith of the Brewers, Jake McGee of the Rays, Joaquin Benoit of the Padres, and Joakim Soria of the Tigers.
Will Smith: Came over to the Brewers from the Royals in the 2013-14 off-season as a trade and is a lefty. He’s making 512.5 thousand dollars this season and has three years of arbitration yet to come. He fits the Pirates need and mold perfectly and Pittsburgh has already traded with the Brewers so they have an idea of who Milwaukee likes. It cost Milwaukee Nori Aoki to acquire him at the time so that’s a base-level estimate of what it may cost to get Smith. Along with his youth, cost control and excellent numbers this season (36 IP, 26 hits, 14 walks, 50 Ks, 10 runs, seven earned, and one home run) it might cost the Pirates a top-20 prospect.
If so, deal from a position of strength, the outfield. The major league outfield is set till at least 2019 (McCutchen will be a free agent com 2019) and the Pirates have plenty of players who can play the outfield in the system. In AAA the Pirates have Keon Broxton and Willy Garcia to dangle, Stetson Allie, Barrett Barnes, Josh Bell and Mel Rojas Jr. in AA, and Austin Medows and Harold Ramirez in high-A ball. Of that list, five of them are on the Pirates pre-season top-20 prospect list. Someone such as Ramirez might be enough to get the deal done by himself or a package of Garcia and a lower-tier pitcher.
Jake McGee: He’s also a lefty but only has one more year of team control left as he enters his third, and final, year in arbitration after this season. His numbers are just as good as Smith’s (23.2 IP 14 hits, three walks, 32 Ks, four runs, three earned, one home run) but he missed a little time due to injury this season as he started the season on the DL due to elbow surgery. However, he’s come back and is striking out almost double the amount of base runners he allows. Tampa Bay is 7.5 games back of the Yankees, 4 for the Wild Card, and may not decide to sell but if they do, they don’t mind taking on high level or lower level prospects. Again, a one-for-one of Ramirez might get the job done in this case or Tampa might take a package of lower-tier but high-ceiling prospects.
Joaquin Benoit: He’s a right hander and making a little more money than the other two options, but he comes with an extra aspect of control: an 8 million dollar option for next season with a 1.5M buyout. He’s making 8M this season, about half of that left at this point in the season, so he’s not a terribly expensive addition but he also isn’t as young as the other two pitchers as he just turned 38 yesterday. He’s spent most of his career as a set-up man so he’s not stranger to the 7th or 8th inning role. Any deal with the Padres would more than likely include a little bit of cash coming from San Diego (say, 1.5M this season and 1.5 next to either cover the buyout or the early part of his contract) and might be a little cheaper than the other two even with his stats (43.2 IP, 21 hits, 16 walks, 39 Ks, 11 earned runs, five home runs) due to his age and extra money. Combination of Allie and Barnes would be an interesting deal to make here.
Joakim Soria: He’s last on the list because he’s a free agent after this season, he’s been a closer this season and in the past, Detroit still doesn’t know if they’re sellers or buyers, and his numbers aren’t as good as the others (40 IP, 32 hits, 11 walks, 34 Ks, 13 earned runs, 8 home runs). He might be the cheapest option in terms of prospects here, but it’s hard to trade for a current closer and ask him to not fill that role. Sure, he’s been a set-up man in the past with Texas and Detroit but he’s been a closer for seven of his nine seasons. I wouldn’t trade any top prospects for him, but dangle a few others at Detroit like Broxton or Rojas Jr.
The Tale of Three Cities: A Look at the Minnesota Twins’ Playoff Chances
Three teams have risen above my expectations and have put themselves in the midst of a playoff hunt for the second half of the MLB season. The Astros, the Twins, and the Mets are all winning games that I didn’t think that they would. I did believe during the pre-season that the Astros and the Mets were trending upwards right now with their minor league talent and the strong teams that are being built. The Twins, however, I had less hope for. I mentioned in my “Mid-Season Review” piece that, of all those teams, the Twins would be the only one to make the playoffs. Here is a deeper look into the teams and why I believe the team will go where it does. Finally, the Minnesota Twins.
I really didn’t think much of the Twins coming into the season. I thought that the rotation was poor and even poorer when the team lost Ervin Santana to a PED suspension. That being said, I still have them grabbing hold of the last Wild Card spot in the AL. Here’s why:
The Twins are an average team on getting on base (15th in the league in AVG, 21st in OBP) but, once the guys get on base, they seem to have a knack for hitting them in (9th in runs and 10th in RBIs) due to the large number of extra base hits; 256 is 9th in the majors. The offense is average which isn’t amazing, but it’s a better than the missing offense of the Mets and the hot-and-cold offense of the Astros. Another aspect that really helps the Twins this season is the young blood that the Twins are bring up from the minors. Most notably is Sano who is tearing it up in his first 11 games played. Small sample size and the league still has time to adjust to him, but if he keeps hitting at a .300 clip, that’s a huge assist for the Twins. Also waiting in the wings is top prospect Byron Buxton. He struggled in his first taste of major league action before he was injured, but if he’s able to come back and add more juice to the Twins line up, it’ll really boost the Twins playoff chances.
The Astros and Mets don’t have much in the way of offensive reinforcements from the minors the way the Twins have. Astros tried a few call ups but Carlos Correa is the only one who has really put in much of an impact. Twins also have the same amount of players hitting over .250 (min 100 ABs) at eight, with four regulars, as the Mets and Astros have combined (and only four regulars combined as well). Twins have good power in the lineup with three guys having more than 10 home runs from the first half of the season and four guys having more than 35 runs scored as well as a RBI total of over 40. The Twins are a quietly good offensive team. Not great, but good.
The pitching is average as well. 15th in the league in ERA and a pitching staff that doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (537 Ks is last in the majors) but also doesn’t walk many men, either (215 walks, third least in the majors). The rotation just welcomed Santana after his suspension ended but it hasn’t been a very pretty first two starts (12 IP, 8 ER). Tommy Milone (2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and Kyle Gibson (2.85 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) are the rotation leaders right now, but the Twins do need reinforcements from the deadline deals to add to the rotation and the bullpen. Luckily, the offense is doing just enough right now to keep the Twins afloat in the first Wild Card slot and the deadline is filled with more pitchers than hitters.
The Twins can target an ace to lead the staff (Cueto, Kazmir, maybe Samardzija) or go smaller and look at Haren, Latos, Gallardo (if the Rangers decide to sell) and look at Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, A. J. Ramos, Addison Russell, or others to address the bullpen. What I’m getting at is that the Twins have more options when looking to add pitching than the Mets or Astros have of getting the needed offense at the deadline.
The Twins open the second half with the Athletics, Angels, and Yankees. Not quite the easy schedule, but not a very difficult way to open the second half of the season. As with the Astros and the Mets, a bad start out of the gate can really change everything. I see the Twins as a more complete team than the Mets and Astros, however. The offense and pitching is a little more balanced and the players that fit the Twins needs are more plentiful than those that fit the Astros or Mets.
If you read my Mid-Season Review post, you’ll know that I have the Twins getting the second Wild Card slot but losing to the Blue Jays. If you’ve not read my Mid-Season Review post, check it out to see my full post-season predictions (https://citb10.wordpress.com/2015/07/14/2015-mid-season-review/).
A Tale of Three Cities: A Look at the New York Mets’ Playoff Chances
Three teams have risen above my expectations and have put themselves in the midst of a playoff hunt for the second half of the MLB season. The Astros, the Twins, and the Mets are all winning games that I didn’t think that they would. I did believe during the pre-season that the Astros and the Mets were trending upwards right now with their minor league talent and the strong teams that are being built. The Twins, however, I had less hope for. I mentioned in my “Mid-Season Review” piece that, of all those teams, the Twins would be the only one to make the playoffs. Here is a deeper look into the teams and why I believe the team will go where it does. Next up, the New York Mets.
The Mets have a similar issue as the Astros, a weak offense. However, unlike the Astros, the offense is far more anemic across the board. 30th in the majors in hits (686) and AVG (.233), 29th in total bases (1067), 28th in runs (310), 27th in RBIs (297) and Extra Base Hits (XBH) (222) , 26th in OBP (.298), 20th in walks (237), 19th in HRs (75) and 12th in strikeouts (686). Bottom half of the league in every category sans strikeouts and bottom five in all but Ks, walks and HRs. That is a dreadful offensive output from the first half of the season. The player who leads the team in AVG is Juan Lagares at .256. The only other player with regular at-bats (min. 100) who has a better AVG than him is Daniel Murphy at .277. And there is only one other player, Wilmer Flores, with an AVG above .250 (he sits at .252). There are three players with a WAR at or above 1 which is the same number of players who have an RBI total above 30. 38 RBIs is the team lead.
Now, the Mets do have some grand pitching. Third best team ERA in the majors and a 1.17 WHIP which is good for third best. The Mets starting rotation is full of youth and a lot of promise. Steven Matz is on the DL and will provide a shot in the arm for the pitching rotation and give the Mets the flexibility to use Colon and/or Niese in a trade to upgrade the anemic offense. Niese has a problem with a high WHIP (1.38), however, and Colon hasn’t excelled in limiting damage as he leads the team in earned runs allowed with 52, leading to a 4.46 ERA which would be his highest ERA since 2007 with the Angels (6.34). Basically, those two may not have the most trade value, especially to rebuilding clubs and Colon being a free agent after this season. Could be used as part of a three team deal with another contender looking for a pitching upgrade (Cubs, Tigers, Royals come to mind) with other moving pieces. The bullpen is looking good but it’s lacking a big power arm. Aside from Famailia, the closer, no other relief pitcher is striking out batters at a strong rate (Famailia has struck out 43 batters in 43.1 innings) and that could be an issue. No big strikeout pitcher can hurt in a high leverage situation. In fact, the Mets bullpen is 28th in strike outs with 211. Only other contending team with a lower bullpen K number is the Twins. And yes, I realize that bullpens can be quite successful without a lot of strikeouts, as the Mets one is currently, but it’s a good way to go into my next segment.
The Mets could use another bullpen piece and a lot of offense. Lagares and, possibly, Lucas Duda are the only two batters I wouldn’t replace on the Mets team right now. I can’t rely on d’Arnaud, Murphy or Wright to help the team’s offensive woes because they have been injured off and on all season. Also, Wright has been on the decline since last season when his injury woes began and there is no evident return date for him this season and d’Arnaud didn’t inspire me as a game changer in his time last season. Now, he’s still young and has can change that easily, I just don’t see it happening this season, especially since there is no real return date for him yet, either. Murphy is hitting similar to that of his career line, but I feel like he’d have more value to the Mets as a trade-able piece than as a member of the lineup come August, given that the offense around him is dreadful and that he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season.
You can argue that the Mets fortunes are changing after a very successful nine game stretch against the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks. But the Mets really struggled when facing off against the better pitching of the teams. The Mets were stymied by Kershaw (but they won that game in the 9th) and Greinke, Cain and Heston (another game they won in the 9th) and took care of business when facing against the lower tier pitchers like Bolsinger of the Dodgers, Peavy of the Giants (at least the way his season has gone so far) and the three Diamondback starters. Good teams beat bad teams and bad starters. But the Mets will continue to struggle against more complete teams as they already have this season (0-7 against the Cubs, 0-3 against the Pirates, 2-2 against the Cardinals and 3-4 against the Nationals, and a 7 game losing streak against the Blue Jays, Braves, and Brewers.)
The Mets open the second half at the Cardinals and Nationals then at home vs. the Dodgers. They’re already two games back of the Nationals and one game behind the Cubs for the Wild Card. A rough start out of the gate could really bury the Mets playoff chances but a strong start doesn’t really guarantee them anything, either. I liken this team to the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates; a team that was very hot in the start of the season but couldn’t quite finish the push when it came to the stretch. It’s a young and un-tested rotation that isn’t getting Wheeler back and already has a pitcher on it in Harvey who is recovering from his own TJ surgery, might be on an innings limit, and has been slightly sporadic this season.
The pitching is there for the Mets but the offense isn’t and it isn’t a player or two away from being fixed. The Mets should capitalize on the players of value and expiring contracts and sell at the deadline. Re-load the prospect pool and take a good, long, hard look at the free agent market and the trade block this off-season. Wise deals this round, however, will need to be made. No more Granderson, Bay, Cuddyer, or Bonilla (among others) esq contracts that do nothing aside from pay a lot of money to older players who can’t give worth to the team. IE: stop paying players for their past. (Seriously, what is with the Mets and signing older players to bad contracts?) The Mets could really build this team up with an excellent off-season, one that is a turning point (akin to the 2012-2013 off-season the Pirates had and how it changed fortunes tremendously) but it shouldn’t be hampered by deals made at the deadline.
Trade-able Pirates Players
As the trade deadline gets closer, the trade rumors are flying like seagulls at the beech. However, as the season has progressed, the Pirates have accumulated a small fortune of trade-able players. While I am not convinced that the Pirates will go and make a large deadline move, in fact I think they’re more apt to make a large deal in the offseason, I do have a list of five players that I think have a higher chance of being traded than others.
5) Mel Rojas Jr.: Having quite the season between AA and AAA, hitting .295 on the season with 106 hits, 47 runs, 26 XBH, and 54 RBIs. His 1.7 K/BB is pretty strong, a strong .377 OBP, and his defesne has also been strong with 10 assists, 189 putouts, and five errors. The biggest thing is, he plays outfield and, right now, that’s a loaded spot for the Pirates
4) Tony Sanchez: He’s had two call ups in the last two seasons and has a strong .258 AVG in the majors, .278 this season in 72 ABs,. However, he has not hit the same way in AAA this season with a .222 AVG. However, he has eight HRs, 14 doubles, and has the potential to be blocked as a catcher for the future. If the Pirates resign Martin (as many fans want), keep Stewart (who isn’t terrible), and have McGuire in the minors, Sanchez could be left to dry, making him a tradeable asset.
3) Vance Worley: He’s having a great Pirates career but this might be the moment to sell high on him. He has a 2.54 ERA,, only eight walks, 1.07 WHIP through 49.2 IP. But he has a .266 BABIP (career avg including the minors is .317), a .239 AVG against (.271 career avg including minors) and he has a low K-per-inning average at .61 Ks per inning pitched. Also, with Cole coming back to the rotation and with many people wanting the Pirates to acquire a SP, this is the perfect time to sell high on a player that was acquired from the Twins for cash. He doesn’t have an option, he’s more valuable in the rotation than in the bullpen, and the only other way to keep him in the rotation is to send Locke back to AAA (he still has options)
2) Jose Tabata: By himself, he may not be worth a ton, but could be a very good addition to a package for a team looking to add on a change of scenery player. He still has a team friendly deal, he turns 26 in Aug so he’s still young, and has a decent career AVG of .277, including .289 AVG this season before he was demoted. He has lost his chances with the Pirates, but a lower team (Astros, Twins, Phillies) might look to take a chance on him.
1) Alen Hanson: Considered a top prospect by many going into this season, Hanson has become expendable this season. He’s hitting well in AA, .281 AVG, 19 SBs, 36 XBH, and 51 runs scored. Strikes out a bit, (75 Ks, 23 BB). However, his defense at SS isn’t sterling, 28 errors this season, 32 last season, 40 the season before. With the production of JaCoby Jones for the Pirates (.291 AVG, 16 SB, 35 XBH (but more HRs), 58 runs scored, and 18 errors) Hanson is now expendable and could be a keystone in some trades.
Deal or No Deal? Pirates Trade Deadline
Plenty of trades have happened in the MLB before the deadline, most of them involving pitchers. Some of the most notable are: the Athletics blockbuster, Street and Thatcher to the Angels, McCarthy and Capuano to the Yankees, the Tigers getting Soria and, today, Peavy to the Giants.
Some of those have involved less of a return than others. The Tigers, Padres, Athletics, and Giants all gave up some top players to get their players while the Yankees and Royals didn’t give up a lot of talent, but also didn’t get back a top-tier player.
Which leads me to the Pirates. They were recently mentioned by Jim Callis of MLB.com as the best team among contenders to make a large deal, saying the the Pirates can’t be matched in both quantity and quality. (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/five-mlb-contenders-with-young-talent-to-trade?ymd=20140725&content_id=86079200)
However, just because the Pirates CAN make a deal, should they? If so, what kind of deal will be made?
No one expects the Pirates to make a large blockbuster like the As did, and Huntington has all but said not to expect something large, so that trade won’t be looked at from the Pirates perceptive.
But the price for starters and relievers seems to be getting higher instead of lower as the deadline gets closer and teams are better defined as buyers-or-sellers.
The Angels gave up two team top-5 prospects, one more who was in the top-20, and a fourth player who was having an alright season, to get closer Huston Street who has a year of control after this season. Street is pitching with a 1 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 26 saves and 1 blown save, 4.75 K/BB ratio, and three HRs, four ERs, and 20 hits in 36 IP. While the Angels system is weaker than the Pirates, it still seems like a steep price to pay.
Translated into Pirates terms, it probably would’ve cost Hanson, Kingham or Glasnow, and one or two other fringe prospects like McPherson or Holmes. Still seems like a large cost for the Pirates.
Then the Giants traded for Jake Peavy who is pitching to the tune of a 4.72 ERA, a 1-9 record, 1.43 WHIP, 2.1 K/BB ratio, and 20 HRs, 65 ERs, and 131 hits in 124 IP. And, in order to acquire him, the Giants gave up two pitching prospects, one of them being their second ranked prospect in their system.
Again, into Pirates terms, the deal may have looked more like a move of Kingham and Oliver in order to acquire Peavy. Also, on paper, would look like an over-pay.
If the Pirates stay put, hold to their prospects, and make a bigger deal during the off-season, it might be a better route for this small market team. Also, the current team, when healthy, looks to have enough to win a wild card slot, if not the NL Central.
Overall, I don’t think that the price has dropped for any pitcher of name. After seeing the return for some of the pitchers, the Rockies, if they trade De La Rosa, the Padres, if they trade Kennedy, and the Indians, if they trade Masterson, will likely be looking for more than the pitcher is worth and, as the deadline gets closer, more and more teams will get desperate. However, cooler heads may prevail and the Pirates might be able to snag an “under-the-radar” player. If not, watch out for that off-season move I mentioned earlier.
Cats In The Bleachers 
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