Teeing Off: Plenty of NFL Contracts
My oh my, there has been a flurry of NFL news today and the ability to sign free agents does not come until tomorrow at 4 pm ET!!! Which means that there is plenty of time for a deal to fall through (remember the Eagles last year with Frank Gore?) and create yet a flurry of even more news. A quick look at some of the bigger moves in the last 24 hours:
Eagles looking for a new identity: Trading DeMarco Murray to the Titans and Kiko Alonso with Byron Maxwell to the Dolphins is a show that the Eagles are slowly removing the Chip Kelly fingerprints off of their roster. I doubt that every player obtained under his watch will leave (they did keep Sam Bradford after all), but the Eagles want to go back to their roots with the Andy Reid style offense. It is the same one that Doug Pederson ran and was successful with in Kansas City. Murray might have a solid turnaround with the Titans given the dual-threat abilities of Marcus Mariota and with TEN having the first overall pick to repair the offensive line. The Dolphins… I have no idea. They are making a lot of questionable moves, just as they did last season, that do not seem to make much sense on paper. It did not work out last season, but maybe it will this time…? Doubtful.
Big money big money big money: Come on Wheel!!! Wheel-Of-Fortune anyone? No? Well, Malik Jackson (six years, 90M is the reported deal) and Kelechi Osemele (five years, 60M reported deal) were certainly thinking about big money and they got it from the Jaguars and Raiders respectively. It is always dangerous to throw that kind of money around, especially for a player like Jackson who had a lot of big time players around him, but the beauty of it for the Jaguars and Raiders is that they have a TON of cap space. That large amount of cap space allows them to front load a contract and reduces the long term risk with guarantees and dead money. A large first year cap hit makes it easy to cut the player later if he is a dud or allows the Raiders to sign more players in the following years to build around them. And both teams did flash a lot of signs of life last season and could be under-the-radar playoff picks for 2016.
Re-signing: Richie Incognito resigned with the Bills at three years, 15.75M which is good for him and great for Ramon Foster. If he does not try the free agent route, I will be shocked. I am sure that he and his agent have had many talks today after seeing Incognito and Osemele get their contracts. Bills also resigned their tackle, Cordy Glenn. The Giants are taking a chance on Jason Pierre-Paul with a one year deal that can reach up to 10.5M. I am sure it is a very incentive heavy contract, but JPP wants to see if he can revalue himself, he reportedly left “more money” on the table but it obviously was lower than what he wished, and the Giants look to be willing to give him the chance. The Chiefs and Seahawks both issued three year deals to a defensive player that they did not wish to lose. Chiefs are rolling the dice on age with Tamba Hali and slid him a three year deal to keep him in KC while the Seahawks locked up the nine veteran DT Ahtyba Rubin his own three year deal.
Head-scratcher: TE Dwayne Allen got four years and almost 30 million dollars to stay with the Colts. I am glad the Steelers never had the chance to look at him on the market if that is what he wished to make given his career 91 receptions for 1,045 yards (albeit the 11.5 YPC is not too shabby). He just does not inspire (16 receptions last season and an injury) and this deal does not make a lot of sense to me. Then again, Jim Irsay has not made many moves recently that made a lot of sense to me.
Steelers: Pittsburgh kept some players in house by giving Darrius Heyward-Bey, William Gay, and Robert Golden all three year deals at a very low rate. There are still some questions about other pending free agents (Foster, Steve McLendon, and Kelvin Beachum (and he is probably looking with considerable interest at the large offensive line contracts so far)) and there are still some starting spots available in Pittsburgh. It will be interesting to see what is done in free agency vs. what is done through the draft for PIT. I would still love to see Zach Brown and Haloti Ngata come to PIT.
Others: Texans have interest in RB Lamar Miller and QB Brock Osweiler, Packers have interest in RB Matt Forte, Raiders have interest in RB Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, and the Eagles have RB Ryan Matthews available for trade. Basically, if you’re looking for a RB, now is the time.
Calvin Johnson and Peyton Manning are both officially retired and will be missed from the NFL. Johnson was glorious to watch since his rookie year (I wanted him to go to Tampa Bay in that drat *sad face*) and Manning will take some getting used to as he was in the league for most of my life and the only time I did not watch him was when he was out for a season due to his neck injury. 2016 has been a big year for retirements.
Personal note: Typing from my back porch in 65 degree weather with Queen playing and drinking an A&W root beer? Yes please!! Summer is almost here and I could not be happier about that fact.
2015-16 NFL Playoffs
The playoffs are here and the fans of every team left are full of buzz as to why their team will be better than the other 11 teams. And yes, the playoffs usually bring a bit of a humbling experience to those who make pre-season predictions like me for predicting the Colts would win the Super Bowl. But that is half the fun; making the guesses and basing them off information and hoping your insight was strong. Doing the predictions after the playoff teams have been categorized is a little easier. First, let’s break the 12 teams into three categories: those who are cold going into the playoffs, those who are sitting in the middle, and those who are hot…
Hot: No team right now is hotter than Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 10 games in a row, Alex Smith is doing exactly what he needs to do to win in KC, and the Chiefs have a different position than other teams do in the playoffs; KC can think “how many points do we need to hold our opponent to?” instead of “how many points do we need to score?”. The defense makes it a different game.
But KC isn’t the only hot team. The Redskins have won four in a row, five of their last six, and Kirk Cousins has seven 300+ yard passing performances. Washington is 6-1 in those seven games. The Vikings are also hot right now. Three wins in a row all in convincing fashion (AVG of 36 points scored and 16 points allowed) including a win in Green Bay to win the division. Minnesota is finding ways to win without putting the ball in Bridgewater’s hands by relying on a running game and a stout defense.
Finally are the Cardinals. They won nine in a row before losing to Seattle on week 17, a game that Arizona didn’t have too much to play for aside from staying healthy, which they did. Had an outside chance at the #1 seed, but the Panthers handled the Buccaneers solidly come halftime, so the Cardinals handled week 17 well by pulling starters to avoid injury.
Middle: The Panthers take the top spot in this category but they’re pretty close to being in the top one. The loss to the Falcons showed some kinks in the armor and Carolina looked to have those same issues come out again in the first quarter against the Buccaneers. Carolina switched gears in the second quarter, however, and showed why they have been a dominate team all season long. Only issue for the Panthers is the injury to Jonathan Stewart. He hasn’t practiced for Carolina as of Wednesday and not having him in the playoffs could cause a real damper on the team’s chances.
Other teams sliding into the middle right now? The Seattle Seahawks are right in there. They were on a tear, dispatching the Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Vikings, and Browns in dominant fashion only to have the breaks slammed against them against the Rams. A good bounce back against the Cardinals but, again, I contend that ARI didn’t have much to play for in that game sans good health.
Cincinnati and Houston are also in the middle slot. The Bengals have looked good in the past three games and came very close to defeating the number one seeded Broncos, AJ McCarron is looking more and more comfortable in his starting role, and the defense allowed more than 24 points twice all season (albeit both were loses). The Texans have won their last three games in a solid fashion but those were all against AFC South opponents. Playoff opponents are going to be a little harder than the Jaguars, Titans, and Colts.
Cold: It probably seems a little odd to have a number one seed in the “cold” section, but the Broncos are not all that hot right now. The QB situation is back in the hands of Peyton Manning but his 17-9 INT-to-TD ration is dreadful. The Broncos barely scratched a win out against the Bengals, almost lost to the Chargers, and the losses to the Raiders and the Steelers were very poor losses. The Steelers looked bad against the Ravens, very bad, and didn’t look all that impressive against the Browns either. Ben Roethlisberger threw two more picks (16 total in 12 starts) and has been sacked 20 times this season, 12 of those on the road. And the injuries for Pittsburgh are huge right now. If DeAngelo Williams cannot go on Saturday, it will look like a repeat of the Ravens playoff loss from 2014-15.
The last two teams, Patriots and Packers, are limping into the playoffs. New England has two back-to-back losses to its name this season and the injuries for NE might be too much to overcome. Having the first round bye is huge, but if no one returns healthy to play in the divisional round, it will not matter. The Packers have just looked poor when facing top-tier teams. The Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, and Vikings have all handled the Packers easily this season and the offensive line looks like a subway turn-style.
All that being said, it brings me to my playoff predictions:
AFC Wild Card round:
Chiefs over Texans and Bengals over Steelers.
NFC Wild Card round:
Redskins over Packers and Seahawks over Vikings.
AFC Divisional round:
Chiefs over Broncos and Bengals over Patriots
NFC Divisional round:
Panthers over Seahawks and Cardinals over Redskins
AFC Championship round:
Bengals over Chiefs
NFC Championship round:
Cardinals over Panthers
Super Bowl: Cardinals over Bengals
Cincinnati has one of the best rosters in the NFL right now but the biggest question is if it can play to its talent, an issue that Cincinnati has had over the past decade. The Cardinals have been playing the best football this season. A tougher schedule than what the Panthers had and has seemingly had production from every player on the roster this year.
Agree or disagree? Fire away!
New Year’s Eve Power Rankings
Building off my theme of “holiday power rankings” that I started this year by doing my last power rankings on Thanksgiving, I’m going to look back at the NFL season going into week 17. Now, without further adieu…
- Arizona Cardinals (13-2): This team is hot right now. It has not allowed more than 20 points since week 11 against the Bengals and has scored more than 20 points in every game sans week 12 (19 against the 49ers). A 206 point differential is also telling of all that this team can do.
- Cincinnati Bengals (11-4): Just took a hard, OT loss to the Broncos and lost a chance to secure a first round playoff bye (but can still get it with a win and if DEN loses on Sunday) but the team looked like it was firing on all cylinders for most of the game. The defense has allowed more than 21 points only four times (2-2 in those games) and the offence is strong with players like Green, Hill, Sanu, Jones, and Bernard. Having a healthy Dalton will go a long way in the playoffs, though.
- Carolina Panthers (14-1): Bad loss against the Falcons that showed a lot of issues with this team that had been covered up by a very lack-luster schedule. As of right now, only one opponent has 10 wins (Packers) and the only other team that the Panthers faced that has the chance to get that many is the Seahawks. The NFC South got a lucky draw on facing the AFC South and NFC East this year and the Panthers capitalized on that.
- Denver Broncos (11-4): What was a rough loss for the Bengals was a much-needed rebound for the Broncos. After losing two straight in which the offense and defense could not seem to get on the same page, Denver picked it up and got a close win. The win was also the ninth time DEN had not allowed more than 20 points this season. However, there are still a lot of concerns about the offense and if the defense will continue to be balanced (ex: Steelers and Raiders loses).
- New York Jets (10-5): Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall, and Eric Decker are playing possibly the best football of their careers, are fresh off an OT victory against the Patriots, and the defense has not allowed more than 20 points since week 11 against the Texans and hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game nine times this season, just like the Broncos. Also, it is a healthy team, which will be huge if the Jets hold on to their playoff spot.
- Minnesota Vikings (10-5): Bouncing back from back-to-back losses against the Seahawks and Cardinals to dismantle both the Bears and Giants in back-to-back weeks by a combined score of 87-34. I still cannot figure out how this team managed to lose week one to the 49ers…
- New England Patriots (12-3): They are the projected number one seed in the AFC, so why are they so low? Simple, actually. They have lost three of their last five, pass rushes have destroyed the offensive line and ruined the offensive rhythm, and the injuries are piling up higher and higher. Plenty of time for that to change come the playoffs since they do have the first round bye, but New England is limping into the playoffs, not surging.
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-5): The second hottest team in the league right now, behind the Cardinals, with nine straight wins. One more win, and a DEN loss, and the Chiefs are looking at a division win, not a wild card slot. The points against them are the same as the ones against the Panthers; the Chiefs have not had many top opponents to face during the winning streak outside of Denver and Pittsburgh. The Chiefs also lost earlier this season to the Vikings, Packers, Bengals, and Broncos (first game).
- Seattle Seahawks (9-6): This team just cannot get past the Rams this season. Outside of that loss, though, Seattle has been playing well in what was a five game winning streak that the Rams snapped. The defense has also bounced back from the Steelers and Cardinals games to allow just over 12 points per game in the five of their last seven games (excluding the Steelers and Cardinals games).
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6): This team is a model of inconsistency. A chance to stay in the race for the AFC North was destroyed by losing to the Ravens for the second time this season. And this time, people didn’t have the kicker or the back-up QB to blame. The offense and defense have not been on the same much this season, but when they are, that makes Pittsburgh very dangerous.
- Washington Redskins (8-7): This team is quietly getting stronger as the season progresses. Yes, Washington plays in a poor division and that has helped with this playoff spot, but Kirk Cousins has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his past five games (4-1 in those games) and the Redskins have a 6-1 record in games that Cousins throws for 300 or more yards.
- Green Bay Packers (10-6): The opposite of the Redskins right now in that the team is getting worse as the season progresses. Green Bay was thoroughly embarrassed by the Cardinals and the offensive line looked like a wet paper-towel, allowing more sacks (9) than the team had points (8). Also, forget 300 yards (which Rodgers has eclipsed only three times this season), Aaron Rodgers has thrown for over 250 yards only ONCE in the past six games.
- Houston Texans (8-7): This team has used four different quarterbacks and yet still has a chance to win the AFC South. Yes, it’s a weak division right now, but Houston has stayed resilient despite opening the season 2-5. Having Brian Hoyer back will really help with the projected week one rematch of the Chiefs at the Texans for the first round of the playoffs.
- Atlanta Falcons (8-7): If Dan Quinn can get his team to be consistent and play the way it did against the Panthers all season long, the Falcons might win a Super Bowl in the very near future. Matt Ryan can be a top tier and bottom tier QB from one play to the next and the defense has been maddeningly inconsistent. The Falcons will have to look long and hard at the streak of eight games where they lost seven of them and find a way to fix those issues and be better than a middling team.
- St. Louis Rams (7-8): Another team that was so utterly inconsistent and was mired in a long losing streak in the middle of the season (five game stretch for St. L) but yet can beat the Seahawks twice, the Cardinals once, and play the Steelers and Vikings very closely. It comes down to this: the Rams need offensive weapons to help Todd Gurley and whoever will be the next QB.
- Buffalo Bills (7-8): Win a game, lose a game, win two games, lose two games, and on and on and on… That is the Bills season in a nutshell. Have only won back-to-back games once this season and part of that was a victory against the Jets in New York.
- Oakland Raiders (7-8): Another team that looked like an early season playoff surprise that fell apart swiftly. Something that is alarming to me about Oakland is that Latavius Murray has rushed for over 100 yards only twice this season and has not done so since week 10.
- Indianapolis Colts (7-8): Barley alive in the playoff race right now but that is the least of the Colts worries. Neither Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, nor Charlie Whitehurst have been able to get the offense going despite the big free agents the Colts brought in. It’s a bad O-line and that’s one reason why the Colts have not had a 100 yard rushing game this season and why the QBs have thrown for over 300 yards only three times, twice by Luck.
- Detroit Lions (6-9): Started the season off colder than the polar ice caps but have won five of their last seven games. There is no running game to speak off for the Lions and they have only had one game where a receiver has had over 100 yards and that was Calvin Johnson back in week six.
- Chicago Bears (6-9): Add some healthy pass catchers and Chicago might be in the playoff race. Chicago has been playing constantly inconstant this season and looks to have an exciting off season with Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery having their future with the organization be in question.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9): Another team that has been inconsistent this season, especially down the stretch, but it is a team with a solid future. Jameis Winston has played well once you look past week one and he has had only two games this season where he threw for under 200 yards (1-1 in those games). Doug Martin being a FA after this season does make things interesting for TB at running back.
- New York Giants (6-9): Could Tom Coughlin be on his way out? That is anyone’s guess but he did get his team to play the Patriots and the Panthers in some very close games. He has not been able to handle OBJ though, and that could be an issue down the road.
- Philadelphia Eagles (6-9): Chip Kelly is gone so it could be a brand new team next year. Sam Bradford is a FA, although he has had some of his best games in the last few weeks, so the offense, at the very least, will change and try to include DeMarco Murray more in order to justify his large contract.
- New Orleans Saints (6-9): Set a NFL record for passing touchdowns against last week as the Saints were in a dogfight against the Jaguars last week. The defense is dreadful as it held opponents to under 20 points only once this season. The offense is potent but yet stalls out at the most random of times (ex: Texans, Redskins, first Buccaneers game).
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10): Blake Bortels is progressing as a quarterback and he has developed a great rapport with his wideouts in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. The defense should be the focus of the off-season with possibly a little more offensive line help, too.
- San Diego Chargers (4-11): A lot of injuries to play through this year as well as the lackluster rookie season that Melvin Gordon has been having.
- Baltimore Ravens (5-10): Strong win against Pittsburgh to sweep the season series despite a QB who just joined the team less than two weeks ago, no starting WR, RB, or LB, and a plethora of penalties. Could be a very interesting bounce-back, worst-to-first team next year.
- Miami Dolphins (5-10): The Dolphins replaced their coach and still are a bad team. No idea how to handle Lamar Miller and there really is not much to look forward to with this team. And Ndamukong Suh has been a huge waste of money but who did not see that coming.
- San Francisco 49ers (4-11): A scattered win here and there for SF has made a bad season look a little better. There is not a position on this roster that is not in need of an upgraded.
- Dallas Cowboys (4-11): The defense took a step back after being surprisingly good last year but the offense fell apart without DeMarco Murray to hand the ball off to and without having Tony Romo throw the ball around. With Dez Bryant also being injured, it illustrated the huge depth issue the Cowboys have.
- Cleveland Browns (3-12): If Johnny Manziel had started the season at QB and the Browns actually had someone on the team worth throwing the ball to, it would be a different story. However, he seems unable to keep himself in the role with his off the field antics. Even when the Browns try to build some stability, it falls apart. Cleveland will never be a winning franchise until it becomes a stable one, and that means not firing coaches and GMs every three years.
- Tennessee Titans (3-12): Had the second overall pick last season and this is the best your team can do? Marcus Mariota getting hurt didn’t help the issue but the running game has been lack-luster, the wide receiver play has been dreadful (eight times the TE Delanie Walker has been the leading receiver and only once did he have over 100 yds). TE Anthony Fasano lead once, RB Antonio Andrews once), and the defense is not able to stop a nosebleed. Titans are in desperate need of help everywhere.
Thanksgiving Power Rankings
I know it’s been a while since I’ve done some NFL power rankings. Or blogged in general. This thing called college keeps getting in the way haha. But I thought to myself, as I watch the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, waiting for the Pikachu balloon, I should slap down some power rankings now for the season so far. So, without further adieu:
- New England Patriots (10-0): Super Bowl champs and have yet to be defeated. So they’re still number one in my books.
- Carolina Panthers (10-0): I wasn’t high on them when they started the season hot but the team is getting better. Hasn’t been the toughest of schedules but had some impressive wins like the Packers game.
- Arizona Cardinals (8-2): Impressive blend of offense and defense on this team so far and the most points scored (336) as of today. Palmer is looking like he did years ago in Cincinnati.
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-2): Speaking of Cinci, yes they’re on a two game losing streak but there is still a lot to like about the Bengals. Only question is if they’ll ever get over the “prime-time curse” that has plagued them for so long.
- Green Bay Packers (7-3): Rough three game losing streak but the Pack bounced back very nicely against the Vikings. Needs more consistency though if the team wants to make a long playoff run.
- Denver Broncos (8-2): Got this far because of the defense (183 points against is the 2nd lowest in the NFL) but the inclusion of Osweiler to the offense may be what the team needed – to get away from Manning.
- Minnesota Vikings (7-3): Rough loss when the team had a chance to capture the NFC North against the Packers last week, but this team has enough to make a strong playoff run. One issue? O-Line play.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4): Injuries have plagued this team and the Steelers have a penchant for playing down to some opponents (see: Raiders game, Ravens game) so those, combined with a tough 2nd half schedule could be enough to keep PIT out of the playoffs.
- New York Giants (5-5): Might be in a bad division, but has had some tough loses this season really because of clock management. Might have three more wins if the end-of-game clock had been better worked, including a win over the Pats.
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-5): A team I wrote off after the injury to Jamaal Charles but this team is trending up. Four wins in a row, including over the Steelers and Broncos, plus an easy end-of-season schedule, it could be a winning formula for KC.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5): Winston is getting better, the team is working through its rough aspects. Is it enough to make the playoffs? Probably not, but it’s a good place to build off of.
- Houston Texans (5-5): Have they figured themselves out? Allowed only 29 points in the last three games! A bad AFC South is wide open for Houston and I’m sure JJ Watt would love a chance to wreck some playoff havoc.
- Seattle Seahawks (5-5): A very hot-and-cold offense that isn’t being helped by a slide in the overall play of the defense. A late season surge might grab the 6th seed, though.
- Buffalo Bills (5-5): Not a very impressive team but not a terrible one, either. No terrible loses (except the first NE game, maybe CIN) but no real grand wins (except the Dolphins) either. A middle-of-the-road team.
- Atlanta Falcons (6-4): ATL has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season. Started 5-0, now 1-4 since, against some bad opponents, too.
- New York Jets (5-5): Like ATL, trending the wrong way right now. Since barely losing to the Patriots, it’s like the Jets have played in opposite fashion. Need to bounce back in swift fashion if NY wants a playoff shot.
- Indianapolis Colts (5-5): The only quality tin to Indy’s credit was beating the Broncos. A team that has won more with Matt Hasselbeck than with Andrew Luck. High expectations are falling very low right now in Indy.
- St. Louis Rams (4-6): Another odd team, wins some big games (Seahawks, Cardinals) but lose ones they should dominate on paper (Ravens, 49ers). And the offense is really a mess right now.
- Oakland Raiders (4-6): A team with a lot of promise early in the season have started to fall. May not be ready for the playoffs now, but could be there sooner rather than later.
- Chicago Bears (4-6): Finding a way to win without the starting WRs this season, no Matt Forte, and other injuries. And played the Broncos very closely last week.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6): The offense is progressing nicely right now behind Blake Bortles. The defense still needs a shot-in-the-arm in some sort. Still a shame that Dante Fowler Jr. is out for the season. It’d be interesting to see what he could do for them.
- Washington Redskins (4-6): Blows out the Saints one week then gets blown out the next by the Panthers. A little more consistency and this team has a good shot at the NFC East.
- Philadelphia Eagles (4-6): I was a believer after watching the Eagles dispatch the Saints, Giants, and Cowboys in strong fashion. Then they fell out of my favor after two hard looses to the Dolphins and Buccaneers. Mathematically still in a strong playoff race. Realistically, not so much.
- Detroit Lions (3-7): Team was able to hold down the Packers and snag a victory in Green Bay. This team may be a mess, but it’s found a way to win a few games despite its mess.
- Dallas Cowboys (3-7): Tony Romo is 3-0 on the season, Cowboys are 0-7 without him. Romo beat the Giants because of poor clock management by NY, the Eagles, and the Dolphins. I don’t see anything impressive about that.
- San Francisco 49ers (3-7): Another team that’s been able to win a few games despite itself. Beat the Vikings and the Falcons. But SanFran will have quite the interesting offseason, that’s all but certain.
- Miami Dolphins (4-6): Won three games for the interim head coach. But the defense has allowed less than 21 points only three times this season (won two) and the offense has scored more than 21 points only twice the season (both wins) it’s a mess in South Beach.
- San Diego Chargers (2-8): I really do believe that without the plethora of injuries this team has gone through, this team would be in the playoff hunt. But alas, that isn’t so. So they’re stuck down in the bottom.
- Cleveland Browns (2-8): Has had some close loses and some bad loses this season. The biggest issue? Handling Johnny Manziel. He gives the team the best chance to win and yet the team can’t get him to behave to stay under center.
- New Orleans Saints (4-6): Four wins and a bottom three team? Yeah, when you look at how bad that defense is. Has allowed less than 21 points only once this season but allowed more than 30 five times.
- Baltimore Ravens (3-7): Oh the injuries. Baltimore has had more than its fair share of bad luck this season. But if a team could go from worst to first next season, it could be the Ravens with a good upcoming draft pick.
- Tennessee Titans (2-8): Another team that’s really become a mess. Winston started cold and has gotten hot, it’s the opposite for Marcus Mariota. Yes, he had a little injury issues earlier in the season but there really isn’t anything to look forward to when it comes to the Titans.
Week 6 NFL Power Rankings
Why week six? Because I do my power-rankings going into the NFL week, not coming out of the past one. This is the 6th week of the NFL and here is where the teams stand after.
- New England Patriots (4-0): reigning Super Bowl champs and has yet to be defeated. It’s as simple as that. But how much will the loss of Nate Solder hurt? Change: None
- Green Bay Packers (5-0): Still the third most net points in the NFC with the toughest schedule of those three teams. Change: None
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-0): What a game against the Seahawks. Had the lead, came from behind, won in OT, made great adjustments as the game went on, and the offense has more weapons than just AJ Green. Change: None
- Arizona Cardinals (4-1): Dominating win against the Lions last week. Team is firing on all cylinders and is first in the NFL in total points scored and point differential but do have a very big test this week at Pittsburgh. Change: Up 1
- Denver Broncos (5-0): Undefeated but by the skin of their teeth so far yet again. Beat the Raiders, barely, and the defense is doing all the heavy lifting for the team. Still waiting for the offense to do… something. Change: Down 1
- New York Jets (3-1): Coming off of a bye week and came in time to help the team rest up and, oh, let’s not forget that Sheldon Richardson is back from his suspension, making the D-line even deeper and more fearsome. Change: None
- Atlanta Falcons (5-0): Escaped the Redskins by the skin of their teeth by a pick-6 in OT. Redskins exposed some issues that might come back to hurt the Redskins. Change: None
- Minnesota Vikings (2-2): This week will show if the Vikings were able to make any good changes during the bye week to the offensive line.
- Seattle Seahawks (2-3): In a heartbreaking loss to the Bengals, the team showed a lot of improvement. Big issue is, though, is that the defense did give up a three score lead in the 4th quarter. Change: Up 3
- New York Giants (3-2): A solid win against the 49ers and the offense is trending up (7th in points and passing yards, 9th in total yards) and, with the Cowboys in such disarray, the Giants are prime to take a solid divisional lead in the next two weeks. Change: Up 3
- Carolina Panthers (4-0): Panthers needed to make some huge bye-week changes to keep up with the Falcons right now. This team is similar to the Broncos; little offense, strong defense. Change: Down 1
- Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): A team that really didn’t need to struggle against the Chargers as much as it did. Defense showed up and Vick/the offense only looked good for about 8 minutes of play. But SD was the easiest team for PIT to play on the schedule stretch that is without Ben. Change: Down 1
- St. Louis Rams (2-3): The Rams were even able to keep Packers more-or-less in check. Lack of offense is really killing this team, though, and that could continue a decline. But, seriously, how good is Todd Gurley? Change: Down 4
- Buffalo Bills (3-2): Struggled far more with the Titans than anyone really expected Buffalo to. Could be a sign that the Bills are pretenders, not contenders. Change: None
- Indianapolis Colts (3-2): Dominance within the AFC South continued for the Colts after defeating the Texans. Got some production from big off-season players in Andre Johnson and Frank Gore. Defense, though, still shaky. Change: Up 3
- Cleveland Browns (2-3): A strong win in OT against the Ravens, playing comeback with McCown at QB for most of it. CLE is still missing some aspects to become a playoff team, but the team has fight. Change: Up 6
- San Diego Chargers (2-3): Had chances to bury the Steelers and looked ever so impressive on the first drive. But the defense faltered and the offensive line is in complete shambles. Change: Down 2
- Oakland Raiders (2-3): Kept the Broncos off the scoreboard as much as possible, seeming to be an easy trend right now this season, but some dumb choices cost OAK the game. Still, good to keep an undefeated, division leader close if you’re going to lose. Change: Up 2
- Washington Redskins (2-3): Close game against the Falcons and a killer OT loss. Keeping the game close against some opponents that WAS really shouldn’t be that close to. Change: None
- Philadelphia Eagles (2-3): Team win over the Saints as PHI looked about as dominant as ever against NO. Will it last? Time will tell. Chance to make a statement this week against the Giants. Change: Up 5
- Dallas Cowboys (2-3): The defense looked good to start the game against New England but fell apart in the second half. Team made a QB change but that wasn’t really the problem. Three game losing streak continues as the team hopes for the return of injured players. Change: Down 4
- Tennessee Titans (1-3): Kept the Bills close, much closer than expected. Could be a sign of hope for a team that hasn’t won since beating TB week 1. Change: Up 1
- Baltimore Ravens (1-4): Offense weapons are sorely lacking on BAL, especially at the pass-catching positions. Defense also isn’t doing too well since the loss of Terrell Suggs. Change: Down 2
- Chicago Bears (2-3): Chicago showed up against KC but also got a little lucky. Would CHI have won if Jamaal Charles hadn’t gotten hurt? Change: Up 4
- Kansas City Chiefs (1-4): Lost a tough game to CHI but the loss of Charles is the worst part. How will the offense adapt? Change: Down 9
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3):OK, you’ve beaten JAX. Show me a little more after the bye week. Maybe you’ve gotten things on the right track and Jamis Winston is growing. Maybe it was luck against a bad team? Going to have to wait 2 more weeks to see. Change: Up 3
- Houston Texans (1-4): Another change in QB made it a bit of a closer game against IND. But there isn’t much offensive constancy or stability right now. Change: Down 3
- Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4): Offense is working out pretty well. Defense… not so much. Doesn’t help when the first round pick is on the IR with a torn ACL, but one man doesn’t make a team, either. Change: Down 2
- San Francisco 49ers (1-4): Seriously, how in the world did this team beat the Vikings in week one? Well, the game put together against the Giants is a bit of an example. This team is just way too inconstant, though. Still looks better than NO right now. Change: Up 2
- Miami Dolphins (1-3): Easily the worst team in the AFC. Nothing really to talk about albeit, after a bye week, that might just be what MIA needs. Change: None
- New Orleans Saints (1-4): One of the few teams that can make any team look great. It’s a mess down in NO and last week did nothing to help with that issue. Facing NO is pretty much a rebound week at this point. Change: Down 4
- Detroit Lions (0-5): Speaking of rebound teams, DET got the bad side of ARI as the Cardinals needed to bounce back from losing to the Rams. DET just looks bad right now and there really isn’t any other way to put that. Change: None
NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
Starting my power-ranking series now, in-between week four and five, and before the Colts and Texans game. Why wait until week four to do them? Because weeks one through three are far too early to tell if a team is for real or not. Now I have far more information to go off of and much more observations to base my thoughts off of. Without further adieu, here are my NFL power rankings:
- New England Patriots (3-0): reigning Super Bowl champs and has yet to be defeated. It’s as simple as that.
- Green Bay Packers (4-0): The third most net points in the NFC with the toughest schedule of those three teams.
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-0): Have had some impressive wins, a comeback win, and behind only the Patriots in net points while being first in the AFC in points scored.
- Denver Broncos (4-0): Undefeated but by the skin of their teeth so far. Defense has really been in lock-down mode, but has yet to really face a prolific offense. Offense needs to pick it up, however, to remain a top-tier team.
- Arizona Cardinals (3-1): Lost to the Rams last week but have really put together a great team. Healthy return of Andre Ellington will really help as Chris Johnson has re-established himself as a usable RB.
- New York Jets (3-1): Really not sure how/why this team lost to the Eagles but anything can happen on any given Sunday. This team is an improved copy of the NYJ teams that went to back-to-back AFC Championships.
- Atlanta Falcons (4-0): May be 4-0 but hasn’t really beaten a team worth noting yet and a Cowboys team that is without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and a late collapse from the Giants have really helped the Falcons remain undefeated.
- Minnesota Vikings (2-2): A team that also has a surprise loss to its name (to the 49ers none-the-less!) but ALMOST beat the Broncos. The O-line will be what makes or breaks the season for MIN, however.
- St. Louis Rams (2-2): There is no better front seven in football. Such a random loss to WAS but almost beat PIT. And, Todd Gurley is healthy and looked so impressive against ARI. Could be the shot-in-the-arm STL needs on offense.
- Carolina Panthers (4-0): These guys have had it even easier schedule-wise than ATL. And how long can this team survive without a go-to WR.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Would be 3-1, possibly 4-0, if there had been a better kicker on the roster, but this team has a strong offense. Defense is still suspect and it’ll be rough until Ben Roethlisberger returns, but this team can still make a play-off push.
- Seattle Seahawks (2-2): Alreadyhave a big divisional loss to St. Louis to their name, almost lost to the Lions (even if you don’t talk about the possible penalty in the endzone) and has one convincing win to the Bears. Lack of offense could be the big downfall to SEA this year.
- New York Giants (2-2): Another team that almost was 4-0 but the G-Men couldn’t hold two late, large leads. Early season sluggishness gone? Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, but I’ll take them in the NFC East right now.
- Buffalo Bills (2-2): A team with high pre-season expectations has been a middling team with a defense that hasn’t been as impressive as advertised. And beating MIA 41-14 really isn’t that impressive.
- San Diego Chargers (2-2): A team that has struggled with consistency early on in the season. Hung in there with CIN but struggled with CLE and took a huge comeback to beat DET. Consistency can turn this team around.
- Kansas City Chiefs (1-3): One of the best looking 1-3 teams there ever could be. Offense is starting to pick up but, as that happens; the defense seems to be slipping. Might still have a chance to make a wild-card push with the remaining schedule, though.
- Dallas Cowboys (2-2): The defense looks like a shell of itself from last year and the injuries to Bryant and Romo have truly taken the life out of this team. Will the return of suspended and injured players turn it around or will it be too little too late?
- Indianapolis Colts (2-2): An overall struggling team right now. Took OT and some missed FGs to beat JAX last week and the offense just hasn’t been there for IND. Frank Gore and Andre Johnson are pretty much invisible. And if Luck is seriously hurt? Bad ju-ju.
- Washington Redskins (2-2): Matt Jones and Alfred Morris has been a solid RB tandem (team is first in rushing YPG with 140) and the surprise win against STL is a testament to what WAS can do. Doesn’t mean they will do the whole season, though.
- Oakland Raiders (2-2): Thought OAK had something special going on but then dropped the ball against CHI. I still really like the Derek Carr-Amari Cooper connection, though.
- Baltimore Ravens (1-3): The injury to Terrell Suggs has been a huge blow to BAL and a slacking offense isn’t helping that problem. Nevertheless, the win against PIT has BAL trending in a better direction than this time last week.
- Cleveland Browns (1-3): Not a terrible 1-3 team and really hung in there with SD till the very end (literally, lost due to an offsides penalty) but there are certainly some areas that need fixed. Still find it funny, though, that the only win right now belongs to Johnny Manziel.
- Tennessee Titans (1-2): Hung in with the listless IND squad in TENs last game. Marcus Mariota doesn’t look half-bad so far to start his very young NFL career. Just needs more pieces around him.
- Houston Texans (1-3): A defense that had so much success last year is struggling this year (see: ATL game) and the offense is even worse. Could bounce back with a win over IND, however.
- Philadelphia Eagles (1-3): Offense has been taking a step in the right direction lately. May not be enough to push for the playoffs, but might be enough to escape a top five draft pick.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3): Kicker woes are the reason why this team isn’t 2-2 (sound familiar, PIT?) and getting blown out by NE isn’t a shocker right now for the NFL.
- New Orleans Saints (1-3): NO is an example of a team that took advantage of the down-trending DAL squad. Brees didn’t look perfect in that MNF game, but he looked a lot better after missing a week of play.
- Chicago Bears (1-3): Traded away veteran players and still managed a win last week. A huge, gutsy game by Jay Cutler to go out and play. But I also wouldn’t count CHI out of the trade market just yet.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3): TB has taken some hard losses this season and the defense is really taking a step back. Not ready to call Jameis Winston a bust, but he is struggling. Of course, the horrid O-line doesn’t help.
- Miami Dolphins (1-3): Already fired their coach but the problems stem far deeper than that. Biggest problem might be the bigman they signed in the off-season: Ndamukong Suh (his big cap hit will certainly be a big problem this off-season. Notice a theme here?)
- San Francisco 49ers (1-3): How in the world did this team beat the Vikings in week one? A prime example of “any given Sunday” is what the 49ers are right now. This team is a mess and it isn’t getting any better anytime soon.
- Detroit Lions (0-4): Blew a huge lead to SD, got handled pretty well by MIN and DEN, and took some really bad luck in the SEA game. This team does have a favorable schedule to avoid going 0-16 again, though.
2015 NFL Preview: AFC South
With the 2015 NFL season kicked off and the majority of teams having their first game on Sunday, many fans are wondering who will win the division and make the playoffs. Others are just wondering how well their favorite team will do. Well, here is another outlet for the plethora of NFL fans in the world, looking for words on their favorite teams. For those who are unfamiliar with my previews, here’s how it goes. I give a blurb about each team, alphabetically, and then I give my prediction on how the division will look and the win-loss record. I’ll do a final one with post-season berths and my Super Bowl predictions. Next up is the AFC South.
Colts: The Colts did an excellent job in upgrading the offense this off-season by bringing in WR Andre Johnson, RB Frank Gore, and RG Todd Herremans to all be starters for the team. The TE position is still very deep with Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener and has depth at WR with TY Hilton and rookie, and first round pick, Phillip Dorsett. I’m not worried about what Andrew Luck will do with this team offensively. What I am worried about, however, is the defense for the Colts. The Colts did invest a large amount of draft picks into the defense (five of eight picks were on defense) but they didn’t draft their first defensive player until the third round (but, to be fair, they did trade out of the second round). Aside from D’Qwell Jackson, Trent Cole, and Vontae Davis, I don’t have a lot of faith in the defense. DT Arthur Jones is on the IR and he’s one of their better interior linemen. Brining in Cole, however, could be a bug addition to the Colts defense. Despite his older age at 32, he was still able to notch 6.5 sacks last season.
Jaguars: I liked the signing of Jared Odrick for the Jags this off-season but, other than that, they failed to impress me, yet again. Julius Thomas might be a huge bust from them; he’s already on the injury list and most of his success could’ve been born of Peyton Manning and from being on an offense with a plethora of pass catching options. Outside of that, their off-season and their offense is utterly uninspiring. Since Justin Blackmon can’t keep himself off of the suspension list, the Jaguars pass catching options are shaky at best. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are the top WRs and they combined for 1,225 yards, 8 TDs, off 99 receptions. That’s an unimpressive 12.3 YPR. Also, 11 WRs had more yardage by themselves, six had more receptions, and 24 had the same or more TD receptions, and 61 players had the same or higher YPR. The running back position isn’t overly impressive, either, with Denard Robinson leading the team last season with a total of 582 rushing yards. The defense doesn’t look very impressive, either. Promising rookie DE Dante Fowler Jr. is out for the season, Paul Posluszny is coming back from his own season ending injury from last year, and Dan Skuta is a situational linebacker who excels on passing downs. The defensive line doesn’t look too shabby, however, with Odrick and Chris Clemons. Finally, the league’s worst offensive line, that allowed 71 one sacks (13 more than second place Redskins) had pretty much nothing done to help it except drafting a third round guard.
Texans: The Texans off-season was pretty un-eventful once you get past the Andre Johnson saga that ended pretty swiftly. The loss of Johnson does hurt the Texans but they added depth at the WR position by bringing in Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington to play opposite side of DeAndre Hopkins. Arian Foster’s injury hurts the team, but it doesn’t look to be as long of an injury as first thought and that will help the team. On defense, they added Vince Wilfork and hope to have healthy seasons from Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney to make an imposing JJ Watt even better. By the way, I’m still salty he didn’t win the NFL MVP last season. Houston also has strong cornerbacks but lack depth at the safety positions.
Titans: The Titans have some very similar offensive woes that the Jaguars have; very uninspiring WRs and RBs that could make the development of a young QB (Marcus Mariota) very difficult. On the plus side, the Titans do have a better offensive line than the Jags (50 sacks allowed) but not by much. WR play is particularly worrying to me with Harry Douglas and Kendell Wright starting. Defensively, it looks bland across the board. The 39 sacks last season by the Titans was average and, aside from Brian Orakpo, there wasn’t much done to add to the defense. Best player for the Titans defense is Michael Griffin and he did perform well last season with 112 tackles, two INTs, and three sacks.
Predictions:
Colts: 12-4
Texans: 9-7
Jaguars: 5-11
Titans: 4-12
2014 In Hindsight: The Whiffs
Well, the 2014 NFL season is about to come to an end. So it’s time to look back at my pre-season predictions, where I made some bold claims and sleeper picks, and see where I landed. I’ll outline three teams I was in another imaginative galaxy on (whiffs), three teams I got wrong but it wasn’t atrocious (miss), three teams I was close on (looks), and three teams I was spot-on with (hits). This article will focus on my three whiffs of 2014:
3 teams I missed on:
1) The Bears. I picked them to win the NFC North with additions to the defense of Fuller for the secondary from the draft, and Allen and Houston via free agency to upgrade the defensive line. However, the team took a step backward in every aspect of the game. The offense declined from being one of the most prolific offenses in the league at 382 YPG (8th), 28 PPG (2nd) and 268 Pass YPG (5th) to being an offense on the precipice of the bottom-dwellers with 331 YPG (20th) 21 PPG (21st) and 242 Pass YPG (13th). You can blame Cutler, you can blame the 21 dropped passes (3.7% of pass attempts) by his WRs (including seven by Bennett and five by Jeffery) or you can blame an offensive line that, while it was similar to last year’s, has allowed 39 sacks to this point (30 all of last season) and caused the running game to take a tumble as well – 90 YPG (26th) compared to 114 (16th) last season. You can even blame the defense that allowed 382 YPG (30th), 29 PPG (32nd), opponents’ 41 conversion percentage on 3rd down (19th), and 23 takeaways (compared to 29 giveaways). Me? I’ll blame the collection of it all. Along with the injuries (10 players on IR including Briggs, Tillman, Marshall, Houston, etc…), the team just fell apart. Does it need wholesale change? I say no. It was a strong team a year before, could just need another year to get it all together. While I did state in my preview that the Bears’ season hinged on the defense, it was a team effort to have such a letdown and miss the playoffs. The wins they didn’t get instead went to the playoff-bound Lions.
2) The Titans: I picked them as my biggest surprise team this season and boy, were they under-whelming. QB play fell apart with Locker, Clipboard-Jesus (Charlie Whitehurst) and Selfie-Sunday (Zach Mettenberger. Why do I call him that? Here, watch this. It’s only an extra minute and a half of your life: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53ZFnSmkYX4). The Titans are dreadful on offense, going 29th in YPG, 28th in rushing YPG, 20th in passing YPG, and 30th in PPG. They’re just as bad on defense as well, 29th in YPG, 31st in rushing YPG, 31st in PPG (ironic how the two teams that I said were my biggest misses were the worst teams in points against) and 16 takeaways (28th, to go with 25 giveaways). They did excel in one spot, passing defense. 231 YPG (11th) is a good number, but you also have to look at the fact that teams were frequently ahead of the Titans and also took advantage of the poor rushing defense, so the Titans’ defense only saw 510 passing attempts against them, 10th fewest in the league (something most poor teams have in common. Also on that list are the Raiders, Jets, Redskins and Jaguars – five of the six worst teams in the league. That list also only has two teams with 10 wins or more. Seahawks (1st, but that’s honestly no surprise) and Steelers (but they don’t need a lot of passes to allow a lot of yards)). Their wins went to the Texans, who still have playoff aspirations.
3) Cowboys/Redskins: I combined this one because it was just an abhorrent whiff on both ends. I thought the Redskins had a chance to bounce back to relevance with a NFC East title, while I thought the Cowboys would be the worst team in the league. Both defenses were similar in YPG, pass YPG and rush YPG. The Cowboys defense, however, held their opponents to 22 PPG (16th) while the Redskins were at 26 PPG (28th). The biggest difference is in the offense, however. The Redskins are a paltry 19 PPG (27th) with middle of the line YPG in total (13th) passing (12th) and rushing (20th), while the Cowboys were a top 10 in in total YPG (8th) and rushing (2nd), using the pass game as little as they could (442, 2nd fewest passing attempts), resulting in the 17th ranked passing YPG. The Cowboys also capitalized on opportunities to score, leading to 28 PPG that is 6th best in the league. The Cowboys took the NFC East crown and are now trying to steal a chance to hold a bye going to the playoffs, while the Redskins look to hold a top-10 draft pick for the 5th time since 2010 (4th in 2010, 10th in 2011 (traded to Jaguars), 2nd in 2012 (From Rams), 2nd in 2014 (traded to Rams) and projected 6th for 2015 draft).
2014 NFL Preview series: AFC South
It’s that time of year again. Between classes, activities, and responsibilities, it’s time for me to crank out my NFL Preview series before the season starts. If you’re new to this, it takes a different format as my MLB Preview series. A blurb, a projected record, and a playoff spot should they receive one. Now, let’s take a look at the AFC South.
1) Titans: Leap of faith here, but I think Tennessee can do it. They brought in the best “jack-of-all-trades” player on the market in McCluster, added Olsen and Oher for their strong offensive line, and brought in two strong linebackers in Woodyard and Phillips. If Locker stays healthy, he has some offensive weapons that he can impress with. And don’t sleep on their running backs, Greene wasn’t bad last season and the drafting of Sankey could be a huge second round addition. What also helps is the easier schedule. Facing the Jets and KC along with the AFC North is a huge difference than facing the Patriots and Broncos and the AFC North. Record: 11-5 Playoffs: 4th Seed
2) Colts: I am weary of this team this season. The return of Wayne from ACL surgery, the addition of Nicks, and the fact that Richardson should improve at least a little off of last year does make their offense strong. And they were able to add some strong players to their defense in Jackson and Jones. However, this team has had a poor looking offensive line throughout the entire pre-season, something that is a warning sign as it’s more than just once or twice. Also, their defense isn’t scary. Having Mathis is still excellent, but they were unable to recoup the loss of Bethea and the line isn’t intimidating. The RB depth is also gone so if Richardson is just as bad, or worse (due to himself or the poor offensive line) Also, having to face off against the Patriots, Broncos, and the whole AFC North is more daunting than anything else the rest of the AFC South has. Record: 10-6 Playoffs: Wild Card 6th seed
3) Texans: I like Houston’s chances to climb back into relevancy this season. The biggest issue with the team right now is the QB slot. I’m not a Fitzpatrick guy, I’ve never been a Fitzpatrick guy, I probably won’t ever be a Fitzpatrick guy, he loves the 4th quarter INT to help blow a win (ask TEN and BUF) but he’s a manageable guy. Johnson and Hopkins will continue to be a strong WR duo and Foster, if healthy, is due for a bounce-back season. The best part of this team will be, once again, the defense. The trio of Watt, Clowney, and Cushing could be unstoppable, the secondary looks to be good enough to win a handful of games with the additions of Lewis and Clemons, and still having Swearinger, Jackson, and Joseph, gives them a respectable secondary. Let me put it this way, I’ve see worse in their own division. The offense will struggle, but the defense should be enough this season. Record: 6-10 Playoffs: Miss
4) Jaguars: Adding Gerhart will be a boom-or-bust move. He was solid behind AP, but never really had a chance to show what he can do in a full starting position. Henne might put up decent numbers which could delay the call of Bortles to start, and I’m not too sold on the break-out of the WR core that Jacksonville had last season because the Jags had to throw a lot last season due to the ineffectiveness of the running game. Could be the same story, this team is just too full of offensive question marks. The defense isn’t terrible, but it’s also full of question marks. Clemons could be out of gas at this point in his career, the secondary isn’t impressive, but the LB core is strong, highlighted by Posluszny. Record: 5-11 Playoffs: Miss
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