Baseball season is upon us! Tomorrow, first pitch will be coming across home plate to the sound of many screaming fans and to the delight of many, including myself. Half the fun of the season, however, is looking at the off-season and trying to predict what will happen with each team. As we are closing in on the start of baseball season, I want to start giving my projections, moving on to the NL West. If you are new to my previews, this is the way my predictions go: I give a little blurb about each team in alphabetical order, then my predictions for the 2016 season, and then a quick reason why. If you disagree and/or wish to discuss my rankings, comment below!
Arizona Diamondbacks: This team made a huge splash this off-season and shocked many, including myself, by signing Zack Greinke to a six yea, 206.5 million dollar deal. The team showed other “win-now” moves by signing Tyler Clippard and trading for Shelby Miller and Jean Segura at the expense of a plethora of prospects. Just as the team was looking to be very promising in pitching and offense, the team announced last night that CF A. J. Pollock fractured his right elbow, will need surgery, and will be out for an undisclosed amount of time. And that was not an April Fool’s prank, much to the dismay of many D-Backs fans. The D-Backs hosted the best spring training record, but still hold a handful of questions, mainly about the middle infield. The team is looking to win soon, if not now, but the injury to Pollock may force them to change their plans.
Colorado Rockies: A team that was in desperate need of pitching, especially for the rotation (best ERA of 100+ IP was Jorge De La Rosa at 4.17 and the team ERA was 5.04 last season with a sky-high 1.51 WHIP) seemed to pretty much ignore that factor. Bullpen relief was brought in by the signings of Jason Motte and Chad Qualls and the trade for Jake McGee for the young OF, Corey Dickerson. Dickerson was replaced by the signing of Gerardo Parra, but that also does not look to be, on paper, an upgrade. The Rockies have been resistant to having a full rebuild in recent years, leading to a small streak of five straight years. Another pitching collapse, lack of health to some players (looking at you, Carlos Gonzalez), and/or sub-par years from DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado could have fans looking at six straight losing seasons and a complete rebuild in the off-season.
Los Angles Dodgers: Not many people expected Greinke to leave Dodger blue to go south, but that was about the biggest thing that could happen to the Dodgers this off-season, and not in a good way. To try to offset the loss, the Dodgers signed Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda while hoping that Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson can stay healthy and shore up the back of the rotation. Oops! Those two are currently on the DL and those two, along with Hyun-Jin Ryu are not expected back until late July to early August, if at all. The log-jam in the outfield got cleared up very quickly when fractured his right tibia and will be out for most of the first half of the season as well. A lot of high-priced players are on the shelf, making the Dodgers rely on unknown or young players. Corey Seager, now the starting shortstop, is looking to build upon his excellent first 98 at-bats last season where he hit .337 with a .425 OBP and showed good power with 13 of his first 33 hits being for extra bases. The Dodgers are also hoping that Yasiel Puig bounces back after a very rough 2015 and that Joc Pederson looks more like his first half last season (20 HRs, .364 OBP) than his second half (6 HRs, .317 OBP) and that his strikeout numbers fall (170 Ks last season).
San Diego Padres: Compared to the 2014-2015 off-season, the Padres were very quiet. The team did, however, fetch a nice return from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The rotation has a chance to look sold 1-3 with James Shields, if he can limit the HRs, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner. Those three, however, could also be gone come August 1st. The outfield looks like a collection of cast-offs from other teams (Melvin (BJ) Upton Jr, Jon Jay, and Matt Kemp), and the infield is a mix-and-match of players who need to bounce back (Alexei Ramirez and Wil Myers) or continue the success from last season (Yangervis Solarte and Cory Spangenberg). And with all the trades, the Padres bullpen looks very different than it did a year ago.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants had one of my favorite moves this off-season in signing Denard Span and then one of my least favorite moves in signing Jeff Samardzija. Adding Johnny Cuteo along with Samardzija does give the Giants a chance to have an elite rotation, even more so if Matt Cain looks more like his 2008-2011 form than his 2012-2015 form. But there is a lot of risk in the Giants rotation with hopes that Cain is healthy and strong, Cueto and Samardzija bounce back, and that Jake Peavy also remains healthy. The offense is hoping that Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik continue dong what they did last season. Plus, it is an even numbered year and the Giants have won a World Series ring in the last three even-numbered seasons.
Predictions:
Dodgers: 89-73
Giants: 86-76
Diamondbacks: 83-79
Padres: 71-91
Rockies: 61-101
The Dodgers will still win the division, probably off of a trade deadline move, but the teams depth is going to be very taxed with the plethora of questionable and injury-prone players that reside on the roster. The bullpen also does not inspire me much. It also helps that, despite the high reward in the Giants rotation, the risk to me seems all too great. If Samardzija continues to struggle and Cueto looks more like his form with the Royals (the excellent World Series game non-withstanding) than his time with the Reds, the Giants rotation will be in for a very long, and expensive, season. I do like both the Dodgers and Giants offense (SF for the outfield, LA for the infield sans Chase Utly at second) and I do expect both teams to be aggressive at the deadline.
The Diamondbacks had a chance to slide into second, maybe even grab a wild-card birth, until Pollock went down with his injury. The team lost the second most important offensive player and one of the best defenders at center in the game. That is a hard pill to swallow, especially after trading way OF depth in the Miller trade. The Padres and Rockies do not impress me at all. SD will probably trade its pitching aspects at the deadline and reap in a grand amount of prospects, making them a team to watch for the future, just not for 2016. The Rockies just do not have any pitching worth drafting in a fantasy baseball league, they do not have a true ace, and most of the pitching prospects in the last five years that have made it to Colorado have been shelled hard. Bad scouting, bad park location, bad free agent moves, it is a factor of all those for the Rockies and add on top of that the injury prone players, and they look to be one of the worst teams in the MLB this year.
Cats In The Bleachers 